Wti Oil Etc Discussion Threads

[charlieeee] 26/1/2017 11:19

Bill

They are quarterly not monthly repayments and stretch out to 2020 from recollection

[leedskier] 26/1/2017 11:16

Until the end of May for Orion.

Repayments are quarterly, not monthly. 13 quarters of $6.2 million = $80 million.

[billthebank] 26/1/2017 11:12

OK I have looked a lot closer at this share now and something doesnt add up so please please please tell me where I have gone wrong.
Going forward we will be producing approx 1500 tonnes of copper per month.
We have agreed to July that Orion can buy 700 tonnes each month at a price of $5000 ( this is not a hedge just a win win option for Orion until July. We owe Orion $88M and have agreed to repay this back in 13 equal monthly instalments from February. So according to me that should be circa $6.5M/month

Our staffing costs including directors will be circa $1M/annum Interest costs on the debt amount to 7% so approx $5.5M/annum = $0.5M/month

So in total we have we have to find $7M each month

TSCHUDI will produce approx 1500 tonnes /month of which till July Orion will at present prices 700 tonnes @ $5000 The remaining 800 tonnes (and I am going to be generous here) we will sell @ $6000 In total we will have costs of (and again I will be generous) $4000 This will give us total revenue of $2.3M

So tell me how does that work?

I must have missed something here but as far as I can see it there is no way we can service the repayment of this loan over 13 months!!!! 5/6 years maybe but 13 months Doesnt add up!!!

[leedskier] 26/1/2017 11:00

This post was thought too pessimistic by some ...

leedskier16 Jan '17 - 18:05 - 14697 of 14728  

I would have thought it highly unlikely that WTI can pay off the current outstanding arrears of $8 million plus the first quarterly payment of $6.25 million under the loan scheme due at the end of February.

Not sure how much cash the Company had at the end of December, but the total sum due at the end of February is:

2 x $4 million + $6.25 million.

Going forward once the $8 million is cleared and only the quarterly payments are due and Orion no longer has the right to buy any Copper at $5K, things should get much more comfortable assuming the price is above $5500 a MT.

[sh1984] 26/1/2017 10:30

Whilst I agree its difficult to predict the future, it was obvious there would be supply disruptions in Chile & Indonesia on the worlds largest copper mines early in 2017. This is in the public domain, and predictions for demand increases from China/US resulting in a deficit were also apparent. A lot of these articles date well into early 2016 and mid 2016.

Given the concerns around disruptions in supply why hedge 4,000 tonnes, why not risk adjust the business and hedge a small amount? - Who else hedged at $5k/tonne? specially when they knew a big chunk will be going to Orion in any event when WTI defaulted on the loan repayment.

Also if they knew prices were hedged at $5k, why release a RNS saying loans will be repaid end Feb 2017 late last year and now state they can't pay all of them? They must have known this at the time.......

[billthebank] 26/1/2017 10:09

Perhaps some pressure was brought to bear by Orion and so it was felt prudent to ensure the company remained solvent and had no serious liquidity problems. If the price of copper hovers around $6000/ tonne and the company now hedges at this price would we all be happy? Well as it stands now of course we woould but if prices rise to $6500 in 6 months time what would we ne saying then? More disparaging comments Hindsight is a wonderful thing Have to admit the RNS confused me a little re the Orion agreement on purchasing copper I will re read that when I have a minute According to my understanding we now seem to have an option to by copper from ORION????? That doesnt seem correct at all?

[mattjos] 26/1/2017 10:05

sh1984 ... I don't believe they had any choice in the matter. They are too much indebted to Orion to call the shots at this stage.

[leedskier] 26/1/2017 09:49

sh1984, I think these CEOs of commodity companies have tough calls to make. Always better to be prudent I think. The only reason copper is so bullish is because Trump won the election. Who would have predicted that? Very few I think.

[sh1984] 26/1/2017 09:40

Operational performance is improving, albeit there was some cost over run into Q4 due to resolution of water ingress issues.

Biggest problem for me is the inept CEO/BoD who have decided in their infinite wisdom to hedge 4,000 tonnes at $5,000 per ton, when the copper price is $6,000 per ton. Had they not done this, WTI would have been more likely to repay the loans come end of February. They need to understand the market, understand there are worldwide supply disruptions in Indonesia & Chile, get off their backsides in their UK offices and do some work to accurately forecast copper prices to prevent this in future.

I hope as shareholders the CEO gets held to account for this poor decision.

[leedskier] 26/1/2017 09:22

Bizarre. BEM which has yet to produce anything and is likely to have a much higher costs base if and when it ever switches from exploring to producing, rises 15% today to take its market capital to £60.32 million.

WTI which is producing has a market cap of less than £10million.

Which once again proves the charts which show that in the life cycle of a mining company the real money is made by investors when companies are explorers and not when they are producers, with all the inevitable issues that arise from the daily grind of digging stuff out of the ground.

[mattjos] 25/1/2017 13:30

Highest volume day for 8 weeks already today

[billthebank] 25/1/2017 09:22

No idea what a harami or a doji is but I hope they are right. Back to break even for me!!! By the way guys if you are interested Jubilee Platinum is also expecting great news this week. Look at the graph there also. Same issue there as in Weatherly except they have no debt and are about to show they are cash positive. Both companies have been let down by the exec in the past but I firmly believe both compabies are about to reverse that trernd????

[billthebank] 24/1/2017 18:12

Expecting movement in The Price of Copper and obviously WTI over the next few days!!!

[mattjos] 24/1/2017 17:57

Someone has been hoovering these up in 250K and 500k batches for weeks now.They've always backed off the moment it goes blue, not wanting the price to move.IF the next update is positive, looks like there will be little loose stock for later buyers

[blueball] 24/1/2017 16:36

Bull kumo breakout today.

[billthebank] 24/1/2017 15:47

Not wishing to ramp but why not!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[leedskier] 24/1/2017 15:24

is that a double bottom morphing into cup & handle formation on the long term chart above?

[blueball] 24/1/2017 14:55

Moving up a bit.

[leedskier] 24/1/2017 11:06

Someone bought 500,000 shares early this morning.

edit

and a further 250,000.

[billthebank] 23/1/2017 16:51

Actually Mattjos that is a really good assessment Lets hope that the work he has been doing with his team in the background is spot on I believe our lenders will be happy albeit that they can buy a load of copper @ $5000 but I am feeling good about this one Lets see what Friday brings.

[mattjos] 23/1/2017 12:37

No one is going to believe that a turnaround in the company fortunes is underway and is sustainable until the figures are reported in black & white Bill. The
historical performance has been woeful despite numerous reporting of imminent better performance from Webster & the old Execs.
The new CEO's honeymoon period is now over. He's made some good decisions and cut costs but, there is no room now for missing targets. A sustained period of delivery against plan (preferably over-delivery) is the only thing that will attract new buying.

[billthebank] 23/1/2017 12:18

Don't understand why anyone would be selling prior to the 26th.Stunned!!

[leedskier] 23/1/2017 11:04

Q2 FY17 Quarterly Update 26/01/2017 (E)

[leedskier] 17/1/2017 16:32

Just upper case part of (http) to make the link work.