Wt Wti Crude O Discussion Threads

[slarti] 24/2/2009 18:42

yet why not yet ?
i think now
i was going to do a smiley but i cant find the buttons

[slarti] 24/2/2009 13:35

Do any other people think "crud" is a buy Here now

[paadams66] 19/2/2009 19:40

Cheers Kiwi, related one from your link I think this also goes someway to explain the price movements.

[kiwi2007] 18/2/2009 17:45

"....it is becoming increasingly obvious that investors in the (ETF) fund are really confused on the matter of contango and how it affects them. The point they need to understand is that oil is not cheap even at these levels if they are holding the position long-term and losing successively on the rolls......more"

[swinging_dick] 18/2/2009 11:08

Can someone clarify the fees for holding this.
10% of £10k CRUD is a lot of dosh to sit still and wait for an economic recovery.

[kiwi2007] 18/2/2009 10:25

You've lost me already ;o)

[slarti] 18/2/2009 09:10

The movement of "crud" within a contango or super contango as opposed to backwardation is very complicated
will try and post later
but i did say it was tricky

[nabcom] 18/2/2009 08:49

Thanks for comments re how safe these things are.

Last time AIG were openly in trouble you couldn't trade at least not the ones I had at the time which were mostly industrial metals and agriculture and with Rogers saying he believes the banks are bankrupt it makes me twitchy

[brando69] 17/2/2009 21:43

useful to know cos at present it makes a big difference!

[paadams66] 17/2/2009 19:46

Cheers Slarti. So does this just track one month contract then, or a basket of months? I've tried google about but can't find a clear explanation, can anyone enlighten me on how best to correlate the daily movements in this to daily oil price moves as without knowing this don't feel good getting involved. Sorry if I'm being thick, sure a few others would appreciate the insight too though.

[cumnor] 17/2/2009 11:52

thanks notanewmember2

[slarti] 17/2/2009 08:50

in answer to brando i believe that crud is now tracking the april expiry
this has not moved in the same way as the march expiry.
tricky stuff aye ?

[notanewmember2] 16/2/2009 21:55

ETF securities give a number of reassurances on their ETFs. There will always be counter party risk with these things. So nothing can be 100% risk free.

They are new products afterall, and they need investors to make them money so I doubt the company will run off your money now at the start.

I'm going to treat them as a ponzi scam - brilliant for investors at the start of the pyramid, not so good for later investors, this will be a few years out. We've all learned recently, that you can't trust a sales man with a pinstriped suit, time and time again. So you have been warned.

If there are problems with ETFs, they are going to become exposed on price falls, and as they are still trading - its A GOOD SIGN FOR NOW.

[cumnor] 16/2/2009 21:18

Re nabcom' post. Guys, anyone able to reassure me that the brokers/banks etc buying the future contracts on this stuff (the etfs) are 100% safe and that it all wont turn out to be a sham if their other operations run out of cash (if aig had not been bailed out what would have happened here) or that some dealer is'nt just putting the money into a manhattan condo. Oil will come good and the lower the etfs go the bigger the return guaranteed in the near to mid term. (if these etfs oilb or crud are safe then at present prices it is one of the better investments around (barring keeping a couple of thousand barrels in the back garden). With no growth in demand likely in the next three months the crud price will probably quickly fall to 15-16 dollars but then it will turn quickly on far eastern demand and falling supply even if the west stays in the doldrums.

[nabcom] 16/2/2009 09:21

Anyone know if CRUD is backed by RDShell as opposed to AIG (still a bit worried about banks and it is not clear on the website) or do you accept that the counterparty risk has "effectively been removed"?

[sam125] 16/2/2009 08:53

there has been no reaction to the rise in any of the oil etfs available. I hold loil am don't understand it - anyone got an answer??

[paadams66] 16/2/2009 08:32

Anyone know the answer to Brando's question? rise in oil price on Friday evening of a few dollars holding up but CRUD still down at lows from the London close on Friday?

[notanewmember2] 15/2/2009 22:31

Just TA. Expecting it to drift lower, and bounce on $25. Bullish longer term still be above $50 by year end.

[brando69] 15/2/2009 22:21

how come crud didn't respond to friday's rise from 33.80 to 38.15?

and what are the thoughts here on the reasons behind that rise of over 10%? substantive turnaround? or shorters closing? or just a rebound within a continued downtrend? i watched it unfold (as i had a long position open on a spreadbet), it was pretty powerful.

[h101] 15/2/2009 22:18

notanewmember2, would you care to add your thinking? It would be more helpful since this is a discussion group not a voting machine :-) No offence meant.

[notanewmember2] 15/2/2009 20:19

Crud will hit $25 a barrel, no position currently on oil stocks. But on the watch list.

[jamak] 15/2/2009 19:40

Does this thread help?

[webby] 15/2/2009 19:31

H101 I am sure it is the latter. I beleive that I read a discussion on the "Gold" thread. Am looking for it.

[h101] 15/2/2009 11:14

I don't think oil has bottomed yet. Too much oversupply in comparison to demand and the contango effect means cheap oil can be stored. When the supposed production cuts start to take effect (months away?), the cheap oil in storage will hit the market.

To see the trend a bit clearer, I use a log chart - more useful as well for the leveraged version LOIL, which I tend to use. I found a 5 day exponential moving average is a useful trend line - we're still below it.

At the moment I'm out but if the price stays in the range $35 down to $33, I might be tempted to think of going long for the longer outlook. It's still a bit unclear as to what might happen.

CRUD is based on the Dow Jones AIG Crude Oil Index. I've tried finding out what and how they roll contracts forward, to no avail. Either it is one month ahead (bad) or they hold several months and roll forward the most cost effective (better). The Dow Jones Index site is not helpful.