Wt Wti Crude 2x Discussion Threads

[macansy77] 24/12/2008 09:24

thanks for the resounding response guys, much appreciated.

[andrewbaker] 22/12/2008 14:58

Commodity ETF can spike anytime, particularly around 3:30pm when the US markets open (Chicago anyway): at this time the market-makers here can fully hedge their positions on real-time prices, whilst before that they are guessing. This means spreads may be wider and prices not so keen, so trade later in the afternoon.

I don't see why position building helps when essentially one is following a trend. If, say, LOIL is going to be good in the future when prices rise, why buy it now when prices are still falling? Better off in SOIL, I think. It is difficult getting the timing right for a switch, but in any trending situation, one may well miss the top and bottom few % as it's those bits that confirm the direction. I sometimes jump in too soon, and whilst it's good when I'm right, it can hurt when I'm not!

Sometimes when there is no clear trend, it's best to be out, using the money for something else.

Anyone who wants to add a few tips, feel free.

[didierdrogba] 20/12/2008 17:34

I've been thinking of drip feeding money into LOIL to be held on medium/long-term basis particularly if WTI price goes to $30 or below. I know this is anybody's guess but what date do people think the oil price will next reach $100? Personally I think this is almost certain within 5 years, 100% chance within 10 years. Any views?

[macansy77] 20/12/2008 10:58

check out BG. - this has been a fantastic trading play for the last two months with very strong resistance round the £10 mark but with a series of higher lows over this two month time frame. Have basically gone short every time it's got close to the £10 level and long from around £9 or lower. Went short last week at £10 and closed out Friday at £9.11 having traded the intraday movements several times. Will go short again if we have a small bounce Monday morning though the main trade will be looking to go long at various points between £8.50 - £9...

this is also dependent on market direction and oil price...

[macansy77] 20/12/2008 10:49

interesting chart comparison between SOIL and LOIL, SOIL looks like forming a double top...?

[macansy77] 20/12/2008 00:37

actually just checked - looks like SG do provide warrants for Brent Crude. Will have a look into them...

[macansy77] 20/12/2008 00:32

interesting thread - have been looking for the best way to take a position on oil and possibly gold for 2009, primarily trading the position(s). Bought a few LOIL and CRUD today purely to dip my toe in and get a feel. The positions were taken using Gni Touch to place the orders direct myself on the order book to obtain the best prices. Does anyone have any advice on what to look out for with these ETF's and if there is a better way to trade oil? Does anyone have experience of futures contracts for oil? Are there covered warrants for oil plays?

Also, as Gni is a cfd provider I presume that it makes no difference whether you trade LOIL or SOIL as you can go long or short on either? Are there any preferences/advantages between CRUD and LOIL other than LOIL is 2x leveraged on the underlying instrument?

What happens if AIG went to the wall, i assume that these funds/instruments would become worthless?


Also i paid for the positions in dollars rather than exchange sterling for dollars as I assume if you exchanged you'd then put yourself at further risk of currency movements between the time you open and close the trade?

Though having said that, if the positions were to be held for some time would it have been preferable to exchange £/$ now if you believe the dollar will weaken against sterling over time?


Sorry so many questions but this is an area i've only just begun to look at though feel it could provide significant gains (assuming you get it right!)

[andrewbaker] 19/12/2008 15:43

It's triple/quadruple witching day today: I'm paying attention to nothing that isn't in line with my current thinking. Don't want to be hustled out of a good position just 'cos someone's got to close some position or other that's gone agin 'em.

[gconvery] 19/12/2008 14:35

Car bailout has had a positive affect on oil....

[andrewbaker] 19/12/2008 12:19

Now $35.83! Shame is, I let a nice profit turn into a loss in LOIL by not selling to take a profit, despite my belief that OPEC wouldn't stop the drop. Positively, I'm in SOIL in a nice uptrend.

Have to decide now on LPMT re SPMT. Am in L, down today: take profit, or hold? I think gold/silver in an uptrend which will take off at some point, but do I stay in, take profit and wait to get back in, or take profit and get into SPMT for ... how long? LPMT is trending back up now, so I'll wait. Wish me luck.

[relishing] 18/12/2008 21:31

Looks like you made a good choice after all - oil down to $36.5 at the moment!

[andrewbaker] 18/12/2008 19:04

-relishing

True, and not only that but looking at the trades, I am starting to wonder about hidden charges. Whilst I've got my broker down to 0.75% with £50 min trade in my ISA (and I deal by telephone), even that doesn't appear to be the only effective charge. I appear to pay the highest price on a buy and get the lowest on a sale as shown in the trades page, whilst others trading either side get inside the spread in their favour. Their trades are AT and mine show as O. I need to know more about this.

Anyone like to comment, please?

[relishing] 18/12/2008 17:26

Ouch. Might have been very bad timing that!

[andrewbaker] 18/12/2008 16:36

Sold LOIL at a loss, and bought back into SOIL. On yesterday and today's oil price trading, the right thing to do, only late!!! Soon I think, the price will yo-yo, making it difficult to trade either direction profitably as switching costs will be too great relative to the price movement.

[gconvery] 18/12/2008 14:54

Question is how low will it go - already down to $38 as I write.....

[relishing] 18/12/2008 14:34

Looking to buy in soon as a medium-term bet on the oil-price. Potential upside is massive.

[andrewbaker] 17/12/2008 19:38

Down to $41.99 as I write: greedy yesterday and didn't take 15% profit over two holding days, so ... Difficult lesson to learn, but must do so. Any hope of a bounce tomorrow? If so, will be out!! (and will be too if it trends lower.)

[gconvery] 17/12/2008 17:12

The US is looking for a floor at the moment, seems to have moved away from $40 so far thank goodness!

[andrewbaker] 17/12/2008 16:49

Well, oil moved from $42.90 to $43.09 between 11:40 and 11:45 EST: too late to do anything for LOIL today, which has taken a hit. My bet won if I'd closed yesterday, is underwater as of now: so I have to wait 'til tomorrow. I'll then either be out as a stop-loss or get a chance to get out at a profit, or ... well, might I even be tempted to stay in on an oil price rally? You pay your money and takes your chance!

[gconvery] 17/12/2008 14:12

I moved out of some of my position on LOIL as I agree this is getting hairy. Longer term, this has to be a good trade if a floor of $43 can be set as seems the case at the moment.

[rbcrbc] 17/12/2008 14:06

Don't forget it's triple witching on Friday - that could cause some fun !

[andrewbaker] 17/12/2008 13:51

This is hairy: stayed in LOIL, but price doesn't seem to be much impressed with OPEC, Russia and others threat of 2m barrel/d reduction. Will continue here for a little while longer: now up to what happens after the OPEC conference this pm.

[danieljwalker] 16/12/2008 22:25

do you guys know if LOIL is ISAble? tia

[andrewbaker] 15/12/2008 12:12

I sold SOIL and bought LOIL last week the day after the spikes. It's up in anticipation of OPEC cuts: how long it stays up is another matter. On any reversal, I'll take profit and re-buy SOIL.

-arabstrap If I'm unsure of the US NYSE ETF trend on a holding, I sometimes buy the opposite to hedge: sell the one that moves most in my favour asap, and hold the other 'til that reverses. Maybe not ideal, but effective.