Wt Wner Usd Discussion Threads

[mack010101] 14/1/2011 11:47

11.50am - 100,000 buy at 17p and the mid price goes down - quite bizzare!

7pm update - mid price now showing at 16.75p on ADVFN - onwards and upwards!

[squire007] 04/1/2011 14:00

5 bagger in 2011

[zastas] 15/12/2010 16:43

Could be a big shorter who has made enough and sees quicker returns elsewhere for any hot money. The buying, or short-closing, is anyhow not moving the shareprice up; seems plenty of stock.

[mack010101] 15/12/2010 15:15

Mr 15p buying another 76,000 today!

[zastas] 14/12/2010 16:55

Sadly for all holders WNER continues on its downward path, for reasons I've explained before. There's only apparently some hope value here left.

[mack010101] 14/12/2010 16:45

fingers crossed Squire!

noticed that 100,000 shares purchased a couple of days ago at 15p and a further 50,000 @ 15p today suggests that someone else sees value here

Only very light trading volume moved share price down from 20p to 12p over last month so the MMs are not sitting on a huge overhang of these shares - suspect a few more 100K share purchases will trigger move upwards - this may happen before any RNS so its probably a good price to top up at!

[squire007] 14/12/2010 16:06

this will move on next news ......... gla

commercial over private

[scburbs] 02/12/2010 08:38

Morning Mack010101,

Don't get me wrong, I didn't mean to imply they would blacklist WNER. Property management is key, but financial management and risk assessment is important as well and they haven't done so well there. All I was saying is that I am unsure where WNER would sit on the list of potential managers. I suspect they are not near the top or the bottom. However, until they start winning mandates it is all guesswork and it would be unwise to buy on the assumption that they will be able to grow or even maintain their AuM.

[mack010101] 02/12/2010 08:15

Scburbs

In the commercial property world keeping voids down to a minimum and collecting rents when they are due are key drivers of a successful property management business

Warners have a very good trackrecord of doing this - currently 98% rent collected within 10 days of rent quarter date and 10% void rate

Don't think the Banks are going to black list a property manager for making a loss against their property investments when the Banks have suffered a similar fate(on a much larger scale!) due to the global financial crisis

I think Warners a well placed to help Banks and other institutions and have a property management trackrecord which compares well with their peer group

I agree with Squire007 that this is a medium term play offering significant upside

[squire007] 01/12/2010 17:19

wner ........ offers multi bag med term for all investors !!
banks choice ...... slowly but surely :-)

[scburbs] 29/11/2010 10:26

Mack010101, Possibly, but why would the banks choose Warners? Aren't they more likely to choose someone who managed better through the cycle?

[mack010101] 29/11/2010 09:17

I would expect Warners to secure new asset management contracts from the Banks who haven't a clue how to 'manage' their newly acquired commercial property portfolio investments!

Warners have alot to bring to the table as far as Regional network of property experts and 'at the coal face' expertise - not forgetting they are in regular contact with their own Bankers!

Lots of upside for those who are prepared to take a medium term view

[scburbs] 29/11/2010 08:47

This was the worrying bit, in line with my previous post. Hansteen may well be positioning themselves to take over.

"The impairment of goodwill of £7.1million, relating to the asset management business originally acquired by Industrial Funds Limited as part of the acquisition of Ashtenne Holdings, arises from the Group reassessing a number of factors including the maturity of the contract in 2016 and the potential impact on management fees of uncertain capital values given that the fees of this business are based on gross asset values."

[mack010101] 29/11/2010 08:30

no major surprises in half year report

company focussing on their asset management expertise

[scburbs] 25/11/2010 20:42

Mack010101,

The problem is that the assets under management of £1.5bn is a touch misleading when it is mostly overleveraged properties. The danger of forced sales and the assets under management plummeting is significant. If the properties were moved to the banks then the banks would not be long term holders.

They do have some good contracts like Ashtenne, but there is a question mark over the ability to get any new mandates given the recent track record.

Without further commercial property value increases or a some widespread inflation this one will continue to be a zombie company.

"As noted above, discussions with the Group's three lenders have been concluded successfully. They provide the Group with facilities appropriate for its requirements until April 2012 in the case of two lenders and December 2012 in the case of the third. Although the exit fees payable when these facilities expire would not be fundable on current cash flow projections without a considerable rise in property values, the Board has been and will continue addressing this issue to ensure a solution is found prior to the facilities' expiry dates."

[mack010101] 25/11/2010 19:51

With £1.5bn of assets under management would it not be better to pass all the 100% owned property and fund investments to the Banks in return for elimination of all the debts. Banks are in 'haircut' mode at the moment so no reason why this couldn't be done leaving the asset management business with cash and no debt

Looking at the last set of accounts unleveraged business would have c.£5.6m cash on deposit(10p per share) and asset management contracts which produce profits of c.£2.8m pa(EPS 5p)

Say 8x EPS multiple on 2012 earnings = 40p plus 10p cash per share = 50p SP

Add in the prospect of growing the profitable asset management business and they could present a good EPS growth story to the markets and eventually trade off a EPS multiple of 10-15xs

Perhaps ironically its the ownership of property which is holding the WNER share price back?

[mack010101] 25/11/2010 19:01

A good day for the commercial property sector but not even a tick up for WNER!

Has the markets forgotten WNER have £1.5bn under management?

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

The FTSE 100 advanced 0.3% in early afternoon, boosted by a surge in the property sector.

Capital Shopping Centres Group (LON:CSCG) led the way with a 10% advance after announcing that the Simon Property Group is mulling a cash offer for the company at an unspecific premium to net asset value (NAV).

The letter received from Simon Group did not contain any offer or indicative offer nor provide any certainty that an offer would be made.

"Shareholders should be aware that there is no certainty that an offer will be made nor as to the terms upon which any such offer may be made," cautioned CSC.

The news boosted other property stocks with Hammerson (LON:HMSO), British Land (LON:BLND) and Land Securities (LON:LAND) rising 6%, 3% and 2% respectively.

[scburbs] 25/11/2010 18:05

I think you are reading too much into it. The warrants were tied up with the refinancing. I think the banks were saying that in exchange for refinancing we want some cheap shares to give us a share in any upside if things recover. Within the spirit of the refinancing this is saying that we are in it together rather than a good chance for the bank to exercise the warrants and dump 5% of the company! The value of the shares is not significant for the banks compared to the amounts potentially due to them under the various loan agreements.

[zastas] 24/11/2010 19:03

I think the answer is these are so illiquid; the banks could only sell in the market a tiny, tiny fraction of their entitlement without letting the price collapse.

[mack010101] 24/11/2010 07:39

Zastas

what worries me is the fact the Banks weren't prepared to put in £140k cash to exercise their option in April when the 'new shares' would have been worth £1.1m and ripe for a quick turn

not exactly a vote of confidence by the Banks!

totally agree with your final comments - lets see what WNER has to say in their December statement

[zastas] 23/11/2010 21:28

Mack,

Good post. I admit to not having been accurate. I am sure you are right in that the banks only have a right at equity at 5 pence but have not yet exercised that option or warrant right.

But what I tried to say is that the shares cannot be worth much more; normally warrants are handed-out at an exercise price above the prevailing shareprice.
The banks would be mad not to take it now, unless they have too many competing interests for their shortage of cash, or they believe even 5 pence to be more than the equity is worth. So no-exercise yet could even be more bad news than exercise already.

As an ex-holder, I wish current ones well; it's just that I believe that this company is run for the banks only now. Only hyper-inflation or a quick bull-market in CP would change that IMHO. Perhaps I am wrong though.

[mack010101] 21/11/2010 17:00

Hi Zatas

your point is interesting although I don't think it is entirely factually correct

if you refer to the undernoted RNS filings you will see that the Lenders were granted WARRANTS giving them the option to subscribe for 5% of the issued share capital(56.2m shares according to AAs 31 March 2010) - my understanding of this is that Warners would on receiving notice from the WARRANT holders that they wanted to excercise their option would issue 2.81m new shares in return for £140,500 cash.

I don't see any RNS advising that the share capital has increased from the year end figure of 56.2m. The RNS in September 2010 implies that the share capital remains at the 56.2m figure(AXA hold 2.4m shares which is 4.25% of 56.2m) which in turn confirms that the WARRANTS have not been exercised.

Think the recent fall in share price has been due to small PIs getting bored with this stock and looking elsewhere for more immediate value

RNS 26 March 2010

Additionally, Warner Estate will issue warrants representing a total of 5% of the issued share capital to two of the lenders in conjunction with the refinancing entitling them to subscribe for ordinary shares in Warner Estate at a subscription price of 5 pence for each ordinary share.

RNS 21 Sep 2010

AXA IM UK - holding 2.4m shares - 4.25% of total shares on issue (total shares on issue 56.2m)

[zastas] 20/11/2010 10:46

The banks got equity at 5 pence per share.

[squire007] 19/11/2010 21:44

not having an effect on warner tho ???