Wt Nickel 2x Discussion Threads

[dasv] 11/5/2010 11:48

thanks for the article c2i- fundamentals fighting the technicals perhaps.

[dasv] 06/5/2010 09:40

yep - I was looking for some support at least at previous highs but I don't think it's there. The right thing to do is to take a loss now, stand back and see what happens next. LNIK is leveraged so you have to play the momentum in a time frame or see gains eroded. I could have/should have/would have taken 20% profit so I just have to accept I traded it badly.

Thanks for the updates on nickel. They were and are helpful. If I open a new position I'll post here but for today I plan to sell up LNIK. Lucky SSUG went with me to compensate.

[contrarian2investor] 05/5/2010 14:54

dasv,

You are welcome.

After my losses on NEXT during 2009, no. I don't listen to anything Wolfson says because he always lulls the market in order to surprise them. Hence this time he will no doubt produce poor number this summer and the share price will hit sub £20 as I sit on the sidelines. Such is life.

I am currently heavily invested in SCOP, FXP & SALU as my primary inverse plays. I bought S&P put warrant (sb06) on Friday. Additionally I did go short CCL again yesterday.

c2i

EDIT: Just closed shorts on CCL.

[dasv] 05/5/2010 14:36

cheers.

Did you notice Next outlook statement is very very cautious post election?

[contrarian2investor] 05/5/2010 14:09

dasv,

I am still waiting to long SUGAR so please don't forget to give me a heads when you see the trend changing.

Unfortunately dasv I see this global situation imploding and the Greece situation could merely be the tip of the iceberg. The DOW futures were positive this morning and are negative by 79 points as we speak. Portugal and Spain downgrades to follow does not bode well for markets.

As I have pointed out previously more and more analysts will start to talk about US deficit/debt levels as the markets reverse and the European situation worsens.

We don't have to look that far back to remember how irrational markets can be. So please tread carefully.

c2i

[dasv] 05/5/2010 13:56

I wish I had listened to you on nickel - last couple of days have been brutal. From 20% profit to 25% loss. Lucky it was such a small punt.

My reduced size short sugar ETF is doing well however.

as of this morning my portfolio was down 4.3% off the peak

The FTSE was off 6.4% and the 250 off over 7%.

[contrarian2investor] 05/5/2010 13:29

dasv,

Here is an edited version of the article I posted on SCOP earlier.

----------------------------
"China looks to have finished its seasonal restocking early, we expect weak commodity imports for April and May to surprise the market, and demand momentum will fade further over the summer," she said.

LME copper declined 4.6 percent in April after two monthly gains in a row.

Stockpiles Shrink

Inventories of metal tracked by the LME fell for a seventh day today, slipping 0.7 percent to 493,275 tons, the lowest level since Dec. 29. Stockpiles dropped in March and April. Bookings to remove metal from warehouses slid for a sixth day, declining 12 percent to 21,150 tons.

"The developed world is now going through its most powerful restocking event since 1984," Ker said. "We expect restocking momentum to roll over in the third quarter, and we are forecasting negative sequential metals demand growth in the fourth quarter."

Nickel for three-month delivery on the LME slid after yesterday falling 7.2 percent, the most since Jan. 12, 2009. Lead and zinc today reached the lowest intraday prices since February.

Nickel fell 5.3 percent to $23,350 a ton and lead dropped 1.2 percent to $2,035 a ton. Zinc declined 1 percent to $2,125 a ton, aluminum fell 1.2 percent to $2,138 a ton and tin slipped 1.1 percent to $17,650 a ton.

--With assistance from Rebecca Keenan in Melbourne, Elisabeth Behrmann in Sydney and Glenys Sim in Singapore. Editors: Dan Weeks, John Deane.

c2i

PS: I wish I had listened to you when you gave me the heads up on LWEA last year. Which I am sadly still holding with a 23% loss.

[dasv] 04/5/2010 13:09

Pig iron - from what I know this is made from low quality lateritic nickel ore (which contains typically 50% Fe). It's basically soil-like ore that has to be barged to China and then smelted in a rather inefficient and dirty process. During the last nickel price collapse China was awash with the stuff. The gov shut down lots of small smelters because of the local environmental impact. It must have been bad for the Chinese to have cared so much.

[contrarian2investor] 04/5/2010 12:59

dasv,

Now that is what I call a contrarian view. Nickel is a long way above it's historical average price. So it would have to fall a long way before prices become uneconomical again for resources companies even with the current tax implications.

Here is another article to add to your evaluation on the commodity.
Bloomberg May 04, 2010, 6:31 AM EDT
Nickel Peaking as China Prefers Pig Iron to Top Metal (Update2)



c2i

[dasv] 04/5/2010 12:50

c2i - thanks for that...I'm keeping a close eye on LNIK. Sharp pull back last week. Also in Australia the gov is thinking of imposing a 40% levy on resource companies. Maybe that will push up commodity prices as projects become uneconomical.

[contrarian2investor] 04/5/2010 12:37

Hi dasv,

Here is an article that might be of interest.

Nickel Prices May Have Peaked



c2i

[dasv] 22/4/2010 17:17

c2i - thanks. Great article. Mincor looks good to me.

[contrarian2investor] 22/4/2010 16:44

Hi dasv,

I found this article and thought it might be of interest to you.

Mincor ? Nickel's Quiet Achiever
22/04/2010 7:15:02 PM




c2i

[dasv] 14/4/2010 16:31

Should the blue lagging line make it above the cloud, it will be a very bullish chart indeed.