Wt Natural Gas Discussion Threads

[notanewmember2] 17/2/2010 16:35

The technicals on NGSP, still cry out WAIT.

[notanewmember2] 28/1/2010 03:14

That was a good call, WAIT

[notanewmember2] 12/1/2010 09:24

Doesn't look like a double bottom

[talon13] 06/1/2010 14:23

We really need to see natgas futures crack the $6 mark for NGSP to start motoring. I'd be happy with a profit take target of 50.

May the bitterly cold winter continue lol.

[shavian] 05/1/2010 22:26

It's cold enough everywhere in the Northern hemisphere!

[notanewmember2] 04/1/2010 18:05

Well, the RSI second bounce, is higher than the first of this double bottom, so bodes well.

[notanewmember2] 04/1/2010 17:57

Only if we have a daily close above 40, and that's when I will execute a buy [target of 50]

[shavian] 18/12/2009 07:08

Double bottom?

[shavian] 15/12/2009 08:58

"Crisis erupted at the Copenhagen global warming Summit as developing countries withdrew their co-operation over moves by the Danish government to sideline talks on the Kyoto Protocol. They later returned to the negotiations. In the US heavy snows continued and forecasters warned the UK to brace itself for unusually cold weather and snow later this week. Joy of joys, a snowstorm is also rumoured to be heading towards the global warming summit itself."

Lol!

[nabcom] 14/12/2009 16:15

Will the Cold Snap Heat Up Natural Gas ETFs?

December 12, 2009 at 1:00 am by Tom Lydon

Natural gas, along with related exchange traded funds (ETFs), finally saw an infusion of lifeblood. The price of natural gas surged this week as the supply of the commodity dropped and money from other areas of the market found its way into natural gas.
On Thursday, natural gas prices jumped 8% as the government reported the first drop in supplies in nine months, reports Chris Kahn for Yahoo! Finance. Furthermore, a sell-off in the oil markets helped fuel the rise in natural gas prices. Natural gas trading volumes nearly doubled this week.

The spread of the cold winter storm from the Midwest to the East is also boosting natural gas prices higher. It's unlikely, though, that this would significantly drive up heating costs since utilities have already locked in cheap prices.

The unprecedented volumes of natural gas reserves may be what's keeping prices down. Storage of natural gas is above capacity in the West, and at or close to capacity everywhere else.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop in storage last week, the first since the week of March 13.

[tannand] 08/12/2009 18:37

Thanks for clearing that up.

[cpl593h] 08/12/2009 16:15

Actually you're both wrong.

The underlying commodity is priced in dollars so if you buy then you're effectively 'long' of dollars - the only question is who does the currency conversion: (this assumes you have an account in Gbp).

NGAS - Your broker will 'sell' you dollars to buy the ETF and your daily profit/loss will be the diff between what you paid and the dollar price of the ETF divided by £/$ exchange rate. The downside to this one is that when you buy AND when you sell, your broker will rape you on the exchange rate.

NGSP - think of this as a derivative of NGAS. This is quoted in realtime as (again) a factor of the dollar price of the ETF divided by £/$ exchange rate. The difference is that the ETF exchange uses interbank forex rates - which is considerably more favourable to private investors.

If you pay in gbp, you should trade NGSP. If you hold a dollar account with a broker, then NGAS.

[tannand] 08/12/2009 09:40

Are you sure? NGSP is linked directly to the price of NGAS with dollar being the base currency. Why offer the two different options (NGAS/NGSP) if the exchange rate has no effect on the price?

[boffster] 08/12/2009 07:16

You're wrong. Since whichever you choose, you're buying a certain £ worth of a commodity, it doesn't matter what happens to the exchange rate.

[tannand] 08/12/2009 00:34

NGAS traded in dollars and NGSP traded in sterling.

If you think the GBP/USD exchange rate will go up (pound strenghtens against the dollar) then NGSP is best bet

If you think GBP/USD will go down then buy NGAS

Could buy half your shares in NGAS and half in NGSP and this would negate exchange rate changes.

Think im correct but please tell me if im wrong

[spacecake] 07/12/2009 17:31

But when you sell - you still have the currency risk - yes / no ?

[cpl593h] 10/11/2009 11:49

Unless you pay for gas in dollars, you have currency exposure on top of asset price exposure.

[bluelynx] 09/11/2009 14:26

fugbwit

The bit that is 'amiss' is called -Contango- and is why I sold out on the last increase in price.

[fugwit] 09/11/2009 14:20

Bought this for the ISA first time we hit 32 and nat gas was low $2. Have been disappointed at the seemingly poor correlation between the underlying commodity and this etf. I have read the whoile BB but am wondering if anyone else has already had a good look into this. I will go check out lnga and ngas but when the commodity doubles and the etf does not then something is amiss. Grateful for all input.

[talon13] 19/10/2009 10:08

Good info; cheers!

[aishah] 18/10/2009 11:33

Factsheet:


Also take a position in WEAT. Both these due a bounce in the winter months IMHO. DYOR

[talon13] 17/10/2009 19:09

This is the first ETF that I've bought, so not quite sure how I'm going to play this one. I'd just assumed that if the price of the underlying commodity, ie natural gas, keeps tracking upwards, that the price of this ETF would keep track with it, even to 100p and beyond. Yes/No?

I had intended this to be a longer term hold, ie 12 months, but would this be a wise stategy. Take a quick profit instead if it arrives?

Any feedback from experienced ETF investors would be appreciated. Thanks.

[ezodisy] 16/10/2009 13:40

not sure if you can chart ETFs--suppose so--but that's an inverted H&S with a projection to 53p or so if it forms correctly and breaks up