Wt Cotton Discussion Threads

[mustyair] 07/3/2008 08:14

maybe back to 2.65

[sllab101] 06/3/2008 20:21

Going to get hit hard Friday Cotton down big time.

[mustyair] 06/3/2008 15:37

rise from 2 to 2.65 equals 0.65 add to 2.65 gives 3.3. hoping it retraces at least 62% to 2.9

[sllab101] 05/3/2008 12:57

On the fut's market it done the same,gap up then down.

[emuphil] 05/3/2008 12:37

no idea. I saw it up 13.6% on advfn, few minutes later it was back down to about 1%...

[win2003] 04/3/2008 16:29

Largest One Day Gain Ever in Cotton Prices
Tuesday, March 04, 2008

by Jurgens Bauer of RJO Futures



Cotton prices took off in Monday's trading, locking limit up in screen trading and following through to reach 9400 in May and 9700-9800 in Dec synthetically on the close. It appears as if cotton should be limit bid on the screen for the next day or two, unless someone wants to sell into this monster of a market.

Disconcerting to many old school traders, and especially industry players, is that the mechanism for hedging cotton is broken. Price discovery this morning amounted to whatever the option pit decided value was. Outcry in the futures pits has been closed. And with the screen locked limit, that left only the option pit to determine value. I recall back in 1995, when cotton traded $1.00, that we had similar dealings. But Monday was truly remarkable in that the option pit was so crowded with bodies on several occasions (and especially the opening), contracts were trading at different prices at different locations in the ring. You just couldn't see all that was going on, much less get everyone to acknowledge your bids and offers. It was wild!

Accept that the cotton market has changed. Funds are in charge. Big money is seeking commodities as a "valued investment" opportunity. It's working. Spec money has seized control.

[emuphil] 04/3/2008 12:07

I'm thinking the same, bought a few yesterday so as not to miss the boat, but holding a bit of cash to top up if there is a correction.

[grippa] 04/3/2008 10:25

Does anyone think the price of cotton has gone up too quickly? Surely we are due a correction shortly? any thoughts?

[resource investor] 03/3/2008 21:19

All commodities are going beserk!

[win2003] 03/3/2008 10:54

Cotton futures prices jumped on Friday on speculation soaring corn and soybean prices that American farmers will cut their plantings in favor of grain and soybean.

May cotton futures rose 2.53 cents, or 3.2% Friday to 81.86 US and touched 82.33 US cents, the highest for a most-active contract since October, 2003.

Forecasters say US cotton farmers may trim plantings acreage to 9.5 million acres this year, the lowest in 25-years. 2007 plantings were cut 29% to 10.83 million acres.

Cotton prices have risen 20% so far this year while corn is up 22%, wheat has more than doubled and soybeans rose 21% last month alone: hence the speculation that cotton farmers may switch from the fibre to gains and oilseeds.

source:

[techmark] 03/3/2008 08:26

Through $3 on the ETF now, cotton price approaching 85 cents. If it was to breakout above that level then a $1.15 is plausible.

Regards.

[resource investor] 02/3/2008 17:53

Fantastic chart Mustyair many thanks mate!

[2708grahamknight] 02/3/2008 09:53

Following on from what techmark said,the price of cotton was 70 cents a pound at the start of the civil war in 1861.

[techmark] 27/2/2008 17:00

Can't see how you can have a bubble in something that is the same price as it was 30 years ago. I hazard a guess that the bull market has barely begun.

[mustyair] 25/2/2008 09:29

Resource, try this one 1971 to 2008

[mustyair] 25/2/2008 08:55

With investors piling into commodities through ETF's the danger grows of the tail wagging the dog.
An air of the dotcom bubble?
More than happy to take the ride but don't go to sleep at the wheel!

[mustyair] 25/2/2008 08:46

Hi Resource,
Not the most user friendly sites to use but,from the menu pick monthly charts,(not historical) change to candlesticks and you have a 9 plus year chart, albeit monthly, but this is fine for printing off and adding your own trend lines, fib grids etc.
Did you see Nicole Elliot ( Mizuho Bank ) on Bloomburg Money Weekend,she was confident of a break out in the copper price, ETF COPA also bullish on SUGA return to the $20 high of early 2006 ( presently $14 / $15 ).
Also Oil, on breakout up $15 to $115 (previous range 85 to 100)
Soya to carry on rising.

[resource investor] 24/2/2008 13:25

Hi Musty, thanks for the link. Used the website before, it's ok, but it doesn't produce one long graph, i.e. you can only look at 1 yr at a time, but it's better than nothing.

Would be nice to find site that can show you a price graph from 2000-2007 for example in one diagram, know what I mean?

[mustyair] 24/2/2008 10:59

Eureka! Resource, I have answered my own question

This site has historical monthly charts 10yrs even java with indicators.
Watch nicole elliott on bloomburg money weekend half an hour into the start of the programme. repeated over the rest of the day.
Cheers

[resource investor] 22/2/2008 19:22

Can things get any more bullish?


Soft commodities are likely to outperform other commodity asset classes over the next five years, according to Jonathan Boyden, head of sugar trading at Ambrian Capital.

Soft commodity prices rose 29% over the past five years; while base metals were up 454%, precious metals grew 168% and grains increased 116%.

However, soft futures – like sugar, coffee and cocoa – have soared by over 20% since the start of 2008, powered by investment funds and speculators which are seeking big returns in agricultural commodities.

"A lot of the driving force in softs is a pick-up of what has happened in energy. It's not just about food any more," Boyden said, referring to the increased use of Brazilian sugarcane to make ethanol biofuel, a green alternative to costly fossil fuel.

"Given what is going on in China [in terms of its demand for commodities], and given what is going on in energy, softs will probably be an outperformer," he added.

Boyden said softs had benefited from an outflow of managed money into commodities away from poorly performing equities.

The gap between price peaks and troughs of soft commodity futures and their values based on market fundamentals was likely to widen due to increased price volatility driven by investment funds.

[mustyair] 22/2/2008 10:28

Resource investor, do you know of a site that does long term charts of soft commodities?
Use www.kitco.com for precious metals.

[resource investor] 22/2/2008 07:46

Looks like COTN is gonna explode, huge fund money moving in now.