Wolf Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[phillis] 23/9/2015 08:08

all systems go
now - what about the price for Tungsten concentrate

[tradermel] 23/9/2015 07:43

Commissioning complete

[skinny] 18/9/2015 09:17

Highlights

· Over 200 guests including Australian High Commissioner to the UK, The Hon Alexander Downer AC, joined Wolf Minerals to celebrate the official opening of its Drakelands Mine at the Hemerdon tungsten and tin project, in Devon, by Her Majesty's Lord-Lieutenant of Devon - David Fursdon Esq.

· Drakelands Mine's arrival heralds a globally significant new source of tungsten and the first new metal mine in Great Britain for 45 years.

[tradermel] 01/9/2015 07:46

All on track with the exception of minor faults, so should ensure a rise in SP, but who knows!

The Company also advises that commissioning of the crushing and scrubbing section of the plant has been completed, as has the fines section, and that design tonnage throughput is being met in both sections. The refinery section of the plant is now in the final stages of commissioning

[skinny] 01/9/2015 07:41

Highlights

· First tungsten concentrates have been produced to specification at Drakelands mine.

· Completion of commissioning of the processing plant at Drakelands mine is expected in September 2015.

[cestnous] 01/9/2015 07:40

Invetegate says first tungsten produced. I appears that advfn regulatory news announcements still not working.

[tradermel] 29/8/2015 14:33

If the disconnect between Ore price and Share Price is correct as I think it is (but will put a lower lid on its reachable peak) next week is going to be very interesting. Not entirely sure if the seller has really cleared or whether buys are just pushing the price alone.

1 more week to possible production confirmed with on site testing going exactly as planned.

[tradermel] 25/8/2015 11:11

times04 you also have to account that 1 load in six will be Tin Ore and the company have said the profit from this will take care of the Running costs plus loan payment.... also at $200 many other mines run at a loss and will close, so $200 should (underline should) not hang around for too long

Also your calcs give a value to the production only and not give any credit to NAV

[doron] 24/8/2015 15:16

Can't believe price is still down when all buys except 2

[nickgrant2] 23/8/2015 17:44

Times,

that maths seems correct to me but it doesn't take into account the following. These are taken from figures I did a few months ago and from memory;

- The debt is $75m which they plan to pay back over 5 years, after that their breakeven will be even lower.
- The figures dont account for the potential improvement in volumes that can be extracted (increasing mine life and/or volume.)
- From a gearing point of view, my figures have a gross profit per share at 1.2c to start with and at $200/mtu. At a price of just $225 the G.P./share roughly doubles. Given the mine life is 10+ years and all the other positive demand figures about tungsten even if it took 3 year to recover (quite likely, even 5 years is possible given the balls up everyone is making of their economies) the big upside will be when the the price turns up.

While your PE figure is about right right now, it does not seem the best measure for a company in Wolf's situation (getting into production).

[dudishes] 21/8/2015 15:30

G'day, could not find the relevant detail on website (maybe removed, as some time ago), but Wolf did quote £75 per tonne as breakeven. That's pounds, not dollars. Also long this week, results of wip due soon. Suspect however, that this oould be one for the bottom drawer? Beats oilers though, short everything in that area.

cheers

[katie priceless] 21/8/2015 15:11

I bought back in today @15 Spreadbet

[cestnous] 21/8/2015 13:48

It's clearer in the full I.C. article;I don't hold atm.

Wolf at the floor
There’s no denying that investor sentiment towards mining stocks is at a low ebb. Prices across a range of bulk mining and industrial metal products have been in retreat, along with earnings forecasts. But the general pullback in valuations has exposed some potentially lucrative long-term mining plays, albeit in some rather niche areas.
Take Wolf Minerals (WLFE), a dual-listed speciality metals company that’s well down the road towards initiating production at the Hemerdon tungsten and tin (byproduct) mine on the edge of Dartmoor.
The miner is led by a team of highly experienced industry professionals, headed by ex-chief executive of Azimuth Resources, Russell Clark. The mine is located close to Plymouth, which might not seem particularly advantageous on the face of it, but many of the risk factors associated with mining operations in more exotic locales don’t apply; certainly in terms of a stable workforce and infrastructure.
Proven and probable ore reserves at Hemerdon are given at 35.7m tonnes, but this is based on a small proportion of a much larger resource, perhaps as much as 145m tonnes. The in situ ore body is rated by the British Geological Survey as the world’s fourth largest tungsten deposit. When up-and-running at full tilt, it’s thought that Hemerdon will meet around 3.5 per cent of global tungsten demand, with an estimated production of 4.5m tonnes per year.
Construction of an open-pit and processing facilities commenced in March 2014 and Wolf Minerals remains on track to make initial offtake deliver ies of tungsten concentrate to Germany’s Wolfram Bergbau and Hutten and Pennsylvania-based Global Tungsten and Powders as early as next month.
But no matter what operational progress a miner might achieve, its prospects are inherently tied to the underlying commodity price. In the case of tungsten – or, more specifically, ammonium paratungstate (APT) – prices have been depressed over recent months as buyers have been destocking, while the slowdown in China’s economic output has spooked investors. Wolf estimates that total costs, including debt repayment, should amount to around $170 per tonne. Although tungsten prices have fallen by about 50 per cent since it started construction at Hemerdon to an average of $243 a tonne over the three months to 30 June, there’s still a decent amount of headroom. It’s also worth noting that Wolf Minerals’ cost-per-tonne estimates were based on a 5.5-day working week – management is now looking at trimming unit costs by pursuing a 24/7 option.
There are some indications that prices for APT will find support through the creation of multimillion dollar tungsten concentrate reserves by China Molybdenum and Jiangxi Tungsten – China’s largest concentrate producer. Earlier this year, broker FinnCap said that APT prices could conceivably hit $375 a tonne over the coming year. But perceptions of China’s growth prospects have deteriorated markedly in the subsequent period. The view of Wolf’s management is that APT prices may have now bottomed out; a view shared by Wolf’s customers along the supply chain.
A degree of commissioning risk remains, but this will gradually evaporate as processes are optimised. The analysis produced by FinnCap earlier in the year certainly points to an impressive near-term growth profile and negative free cash flows this year are expected to change into apositive A$30m in 2016 and A$103m come 2017.
Wolf’s share price has pulled back because of recent APT weakness, but we think this has presented an opportunity for investors who are willing to take along-term bet on resources. Buy. MR

[skinny] 21/8/2015 13:43

Clear as mud -

[manonph] 21/8/2015 13:19

I thought the price of tungsten was nearer 360 ?

[katie priceless] 21/8/2015 13:13

Interesting i await replies , am no expert

[times104] 21/8/2015 12:19

Number crunch. (mtu = 10kgs)aiui.
Cost of operation 170$ per mtu (this is 108$ + cost of finance at 62$)
Price of tungsten 200$ per mtu
profit 30$ per mtu
Potential production 4500 tonnes pa
convert to mtu's 450,000
Assumed profit 450,000 x 30$ = 13,500,000$
Convert to £ sterling at 1 us = .64p
Sterling value £8,640,000
Number of shares ?840,000,000
Implies 1p per share
P/E of 10 therefore share price 10p.

I am not an expert so can anyone come up with a different view.???
tia

[katie priceless] 21/8/2015 10:40

plaleje

Thanks for posting that , when posters say its the low price of Tungsten that the share price is down , you have some saying oh no its a big seller unloading shares its Mr 100,000 again.

[paleje] 21/8/2015 09:55

IC made Wolfe one of their Tips of the Week today, taking a long term view. About the cost vs tungsten price they say:-

"Wolf estimates that total costs, including debt repayment, should amount to around $170 per tonne. Although tungsten prices have fallen by about 50 per cent since it started construction at Hemerdon to an average of $243 a tonne over the three months to 30 June, there's still a decent amount of headroom. It's also worth noting that Wolf Minerals' cost-per-tonne estimates were based on a 5.5-day working week - management is now looking at trimming unit costs by pursuing a 24/7 option."

[katie priceless] 19/8/2015 11:17

Did they tell you when they would be at risk ? How far would the Tungsten price have to fall.

[tradermel] 10/8/2015 18:10

Cyberbub, not really, just limits the upside compared to say 12 months ago. For me its a safe share, although I did not anticipate the recent fall back to my average. I contacted the company recently and they replied (all already in the public domain) with a fairly bullish answer on the price of Tungsten and how they see many other producers closing before they are at risk.

[cyberbub] 10/8/2015 15:08

Production is close, but surely the tungsten price is a worry?