Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Wogen Plc LSE:WGN London Ordinary Share GB00B0LMC209 ORD 5P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 39.00p 0.00p 0.00p - - - 0 06:30:09
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
General Financial - - - - 17.51

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mathisvale: I have the feeling that this co is off most investor's radar. The profits drop just after its IPO also upset a few people. Nevertheless, this is a well managed growing co, with management who are used to trading through tough times. The co provides a safe high yielding dividend and is also trading not far from its net asset value. IMO this share price is going to continue to slumber along for a while until profits suddenly shoot up and takes us all (?) by surprise. Then everyone and his dog will want to climb aboard. By then I should have a large holding and will be starting to unload
mathisvale: The net asset value and large dividend have helped the share price form a solid base. The first higher low has appeared on the chart, so looks promising as the first tentative signs of the next bull cycle
mathisvale: The interim results look OK. Profits are steady, the dividend is enormous and the company is growing steadily. This not a stock with a high profile. The steep dive in the share price shortly after the share issue must have put a lot of people off. However, this business is cyclical, the management are experienced, and large ups and downs are the name of the game. In my view this is a very good stock to buy at this stage of the cycle. That is what I have been doing.
krishall: well he's put £87.5k of (presumably) his own money in to the shares. so would say that he's fairly confident of a future rise in the share price
mathisvale: Profits will mot be £23m this year - no surprise there. The question is where will they finish up. Pick a number from £15m, £10m, £5m, £0m or negative. It all boils down to 'what is the core business worth in an average year - and what are the prospects for growth' Considering the co's developments in China I would say the the prospects are good to excellent. What future profits will be is extremely 'finger in the air', but I reckon that the current share price is fair if in an 'average' year the co makes £6m - £8m. I would welcome any other views on this subject
valhamos: Slapdash "As suspected not a secular growth story" Did anybody say it was? And if it was, would it have floated last year at a P/E of 4 ? It's a commodity business in specialty metals where Wogen adds value through its knowledge base and customer relationships. I bought just after the float and thought it was (and still is) good value. But the share price is always going to be volatile, like the price of the metals it trades. Investment success will come to those who can exploit that volatility. Over the last few months you have been quite negative. Fair enough - obviously not your cup of tea; but why are you here?
siskinbird: Yes, the Chinese angle might keep the share price afloat.
cockneyrebel: Spooky, go and point that out about a PE of 10 on the ALT thread please. I'm holding those, they posted results ahead of forecast so the 4p eps next year looks like being upgraded plus savings from the move to AIM - 5p eps next year? 80%+ earnings growth, PE 9? PEG 0.09 and a yield coming! The secret is to buy all these stocks that have moderate to high earnings growth forecast that are on a low PE - invariably the PEG's are below 0.5 just like Wogen, Punters watch, wait and miss stocks like this to their regret imo. There might be something we can't see right now but I suspect floating while the market was tanking is the reason for the low valuation at the float. Imagine: you put together a floatation, it costs you £400K or more I guess, it takes a lot of planning and timing. You thing you're floating just as the market is on a high and the market trips you up - metal prices start to fall, share prices start to fall and your share price relies on both - who is going to underwrite that at a decent price? So do you pull the float, perhaps wait several years if this is the market top they have just seen or go with it or pull the float? I've looked through Proquotes RNS and I can't find many other floats in October, just one, a drug co, Abcam but stand to be corrected. I'm pretty convinced the market in October meant most floats were delayed or pulled, Wogen went ahead but I bet they had to float on a very conservative rating. With a name like Wogen they might have given us a Blankety Blank cheque here possibly. Suppose they floated cheaply due to thinking the market was on a longer term decline, they float Oct 31 just as the market makes a bottoms after the AIM index has fallen 10% in 6 weeks. Might have been classically poor timing for the company but brilliant timing for the private investor imo. CR
spooky: I think we are making this a little more complicated than it actually is.Wogen is a metal trader,it has more to it than that but lets just say it is a metal trader,how should it be rated ? Well how do you rate a hedge fund or any business which has earnings volatility,the market provides a number of examples and i do not see many of them trading with PE'S below 10,in fact there are no larger businesses with potentially significant earnings volatility that are trading below 10.So on an earnings basis i believe the company to be undervalued on current earnings expectations.What are current earnings expectations,in reality this isn't any more confusing than looking at an oil company or a gold miner.People are fairly comfortable with their projections for all the major oil companies but what do they look like if the oil price falls to $5,they would obviously be different.The point is that you are happy holding the oil company because of your views on the oil price and how the company will perform.Returning to Wogen, if you believe that commodities markets will be active,that there will be price volatility and that emerging markets will be significant players in this,Wogen will benefit.The time to be long is when you feel that markets favour what they do and the time to sell is when you do not.The rating will change over time as the company produces results which people can analyse,i believe this rerating will occur faster than most people expect,the first published results in 6 or 7 weeks will play a significant part in this. When buying a gold miner you are guided by the gold price,current and future, buying Wogen is the same decision,does the current market allow the company to generate profits and will it in the future,at the moment it most definitely does and i also like the future outlook ,so i am long.If Wogen had been listed for the last two or three years and if they were about to produce 40p in EPS,I believe the shares would be trading above £4.00,three times the current share price. If i am wrong on the outlook then i will be wrong on the future share price,but please don't ignore the fact that this company is very well placed in it's markets and being wrong may mean that the company significantly outperforms my expectations not underperforms.
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