Watchstone Share Discussion Threads

[lydnem] 03/6/2016 20:50

...and nicky numb nuts holds both of them too!

[nicky name] 03/6/2016 18:18

Ok ELcapital, if you say so lol

don't let the truth put you off your script

[lydnem] 03/6/2016 14:11

im not saying its a short now, and im not EL Capital. He is back in the UK on business.

Its a little overvalued but not enough to bother

no need for me to average down though like your 652 purchase.

[nicky name] 03/6/2016 14:01

carry on shorting 'ELcapital'

LOL

[lydnem] 03/6/2016 11:41

...didnt you say the same about nutters shorting when you bought SGH at $8 and qpp at 652?

[nicky name] 03/6/2016 11:25

Patience Daley.
Look at Redde a few years back when it was heavily shorted because of cashflow worries. And look how it has 20 bagged since. Anyway, my analogy with Redde is SGH not WTG if you care to read my posts instead of mindlessly attacking me.
Anyone shorting either SGH or WTG is nuts though.

[nicky name] 03/6/2016 11:25

Patience Daley.
Look at Redde a few years back when it was heavily shorted because of cashflow worries. And look how it has 20 bagged since. Anyway, my analogy with Redde is SGH not WTG if you care to read my posts instead of mindlessly attacking me.
Anyone shorting either SGH or WTG is nuts though.

[dalesiders] 03/6/2016 09:36

Interesting figures from the business segment analysis in the accounts.

Underlying EBITDA £16m loss

Only Ingenie showing a profit before central costs are allocated.

Even that profit is marginal and would show a loss of £0.5m if their share of central costs were allocated.

Perhaps Nicky can show us how these are similar to Redde.

[lydnem] 03/6/2016 07:23

"cant help thinking".......................yep very evident from your posts over the last year or two! This idiot even gives numb nuts a run for his money !

[geoffreen] 02/6/2016 18:35

This stock is characterised by a very orderly market - can't help thinking that, at some stage (and, unfortunately, I don't know when), it will shift up a gear.

[lydnem] 02/6/2016 12:39

Its pretty obvious. I think/know you are stupid and you might benefit from someone trying to talk sense into you....as I said, its a long shot

[nicky name] 02/6/2016 12:33

SC and I agree on WTG 'ELcapital' so I don't understand
why I supposed to call him

your logic is faulty, to say the least

nothing new there

[lydnem] 02/6/2016 12:22

There used to be a time when the arrival of a hedge fund was deemed to be good news, but when you look at their performance over the last few years it is possible the reverse. just look at one time star Odey, theyve lost £200m this year.

Also, this stock would have been lent to them....

[funkmasterp12] 02/6/2016 12:19

A Hedgie has gone long 5% on a CFD? Wow...

[lydnem] 02/6/2016 12:12

....get on the phone to EK then numb nuts, it will take a much longer time period to talk sense into you, but it may be worth a shot, albeit a long one!

[squire007] 02/6/2016 11:20

Well there is your yanks piling in .... ;-) tick tock

[nicky name] 02/6/2016 11:17

It looks like Simon Cawkwell has talked sense into 'henchard' or possibly called him to order.

[geoffreen] 02/6/2016 11:13

Henchard,

Thank you for your updated valuation.

[nicky name] 02/6/2016 11:06

Didn't SGH get the 53.000 NIHL cases for nil consideration?
Will only have to share any profits with WTG after ALL costs.
Sounds good to me for SGH. Look at the current low market valuations of both WTG and SGH.
Anybody shorting here is mental.

[henchard] 02/6/2016 11:06

My take on the valuation of WTG.

£86.9m cash in the company = 189p a share.
£50m in escrow = 109p a share.
£0m fair value of NIHL cash from SGH = 0p a share.
(previous WTG estimate £39.6m = 86p a share.)

Valuing the businesses
'Hubio' and 'Other' I can attribute no value to at this stage = 0p
'Ingenie' and 'Health' have annualised revenues (based on Q1 numbers) of £14m and £26.4m respectively. Together, conservatively valued at 1 x sales = 90p a share.
Potential for 'Health' to be valued higher based on other clinics companies (e.g. FTSE 100 Mediclinic 3 x sales) and 'Ingenie' to be valued higher based on other telematics companies (e.g. Trakm8 3.3 x sales, and some others including Fleetmatics at over 5 x sales). But while I think WTG's businesses could attract bids at above 1 x sales (90p a share), it's hard to see them receiving offers at the top end of valuations.

Potential risks etc
All else being equal (i.e. no asset sales) I reckon it would take £20-25m investment (say 50p a share) to get WTG breaking even at a cash level as a group, sometime in 2017.
£50m in escrow = 109p a share is dependent on no claims against warranties given to S&G by WTG. (Note also that WTG actually gave warranties of up to £100m.)
SFO investigation ?
Your Legal Friend, currently letter of claim for c. £9.4m (20p a share) from 342 claimants, which is maybe a quarter of the potential claimants on YLF's books.

So, you have to take a view on the risks. My view is the risks are relatively low, and there is good potential upside for WTG shares. I was a long-time QPP bear, but circumstances have changed and the valuation and risk/reward payoff now seems favourable.

[geoffreen] 02/6/2016 11:02

RNS - new 5.012% shareholder, Dialectic Capital Management LP.