Volvere Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 21/9/2017 10:00

Indeed, nice very slow staircase, which once one get used to it can be happily ignored but a few time a year.

[rivaldo] 21/9/2017 09:56

Nothing wrong with taking a little profit, but bizarre to see so many small sells today given such barnstorming results. Seems crazy to me.

The upside here looks extremely high, whereas the downside is tiny, protected by over 500p per share of cash plus substantial freehold property/tangible assets. The ideal investment.

I'll have to recalculate the NAV in the thread header post given Impetus' outstanding performance.

And as someone else pointed out, Impetus' new contract was only in place for part of H1, so H2 should be even better.

Credit is also due to Impetus' management - including the Landers - for managing the transition of staff etc into Impetus so smoothly.

[eezymunny] 21/9/2017 09:19

A tough H1 at Shire, clearly. Min wage increases, awful forex movements, and a tough customer base, but the first of those is done (for now!), forex has improved recently, price increases should have been agreed etc. Hopefully they can get close to last year's number for the full year (around £1m pretax).

Perhaps we can do £4.5m pre central costs, £4m post central costs, £3.2m post tax. So the subs only being valued at c. £12m (over and above the cash) at 800p for an EV/post tax earnings of just 3 or 4.

Still awfully cheap given the outlook for Impetus IMO.

Things can go wrong of course, as I've been pointing out for some years :)

[glawsiain] 21/9/2017 09:17

good thread this and I completely agree that this is a buy and sleep on it share. Anyone know of other worthwhile volvere-like trading companies?

[longshanks] 21/9/2017 09:15

Impetus is doing the business generating another good set of results for the group. Only concern would be with Shire looking like it needs a few more years before it can be sold on but overall more than happy with these results. Looks to me like they are shy on deals at the moment as valuations are too high or opportunities for turnaround too few. I expect the Brexit fallout in the next couple of years will change that position.

[modform] 21/9/2017 09:08

This is a buy it sleep on it type if share, and only moves on news. Happy to hold long term and add on weakness

[eezymunny] 21/9/2017 08:42

Exactly zingpook. They NEVER attempt to value their subsidiaries. That's what investment companies do (see the likes of BCAP, LMS, and many others). VLE is a trading company (for accounting purposes). So the NAV at Impetus is just a reflection of the accounting value of a few desks, company cars etc, not what the company might be worth if it was sold for example.

[cockerhoop] 21/9/2017 08:39

:-) Thread getting slightly surreal now with Mr Look explaining to Mr Dook!!

[zangdook] 21/9/2017 08:36

So they never update the valuations from cost of acquisition?

ok, thanks.

(first I've heard of zoolook. obviously an obvious question though)

edit: thanks thanks thanks

[zoolook] 21/9/2017 08:33

Zandook

Because the value is booked when bought and not fully revalued as the performance improves.

Explained well here: hxxp://www.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-26-may-2017-vle-pla-sdi-189074/

[cockerhoop] 21/9/2017 08:30

Eezy,

Think you're getting your zoolook's and zangdook's mixed up!

[eezymunny] 21/9/2017 08:29

Oh zoolook. You've asked this before.

uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=21108622&from=2064

I guess you didn't go away and read any investment books. The NAV is just book value, not a director's assessment of the value of the subsidiaries.

The last available NAV of Impetus was just £34 THOUSAND (companies house end 2015), but it's running at a £3MILLION+ pa pretax profitability run rate. Do you really think it's only worth £34k?

[rivaldo] 21/9/2017 08:27

Zangdook, it's very simple. The acquired companies - Impetus, Shire, Sira - are in the books at almost nothing since they were acquired for tiny considerations.

So the declared NAV consists in broad terms of the £20.5m cash pile plus tangible assets and debtors/creditors.

Thus the value inherent in the 3 investee companies - which will ultimately be realised on disposal, sooner or later - is almost completely additional to the declared NAV per share.

Have a good read of the thread header post and then extrapolate further from today's results.

[zangdook] 21/9/2017 08:10

Rivaldo

in the header you contrast 'realistic valuations' with the declared NAV - what is it that makes the NAV unrealistic - what's their basis of valuation?

thanks

[essential] 21/9/2017 08:08

Not much stock available on this one - getting squeezed higher

[plentymorefish] 21/9/2017 08:02

800p cometh!

[simso] 21/9/2017 07:36

Stunning Impetus numbers. I think The "annualised" number for Impetus will be even bigger than £3.1m, because the first half only has 3 months worth of the large new contract which started in April.

[rivaldo] 21/9/2017 07:20

Wow - H1 results show an outstanding performance from Impetus....



The core NAV is up to 623p, and cash is up to £20.5m.

Impetus is now making an annualised £3.1m PBT :o))

If Impetus were a stand-alone PLC, at the current growth rate you could put it on a P/E of 20 and a post-tax valuation of say £55m - almost double the entire VLE m/cap.

Shire and Sira are marking time. Shire's is a creditable H1 performance given the increase in raw material prices, and H2 should provide a nice profitable lift.

VLE even state that the current shift in the auto industry will bring further opportunities for Impetus.

We should see a decent lift-off today if investors have any sense imho.

[rivaldo] 20/9/2017 23:30

At a prior AGM I seem to remember that M&Z wanted too high a price for their shares, or at least higher than the Landers were prepared to pay. So it was on the agenda, but the brothers' eye for a bargain was still the deciding factor :o))

Perhaps after the upcoming results the buybacks will re-start.

[jamtomorrow2] 20/9/2017 17:04

Their modus operandi is to buy companies for next to nothing and invest a few million into them. The majority of the cash will therefore never be needed.

Who knows - the Marks and Zimmerman shares have recently been available but they chose not to buy those. I'm sure if they bid up the price shares would surface pretty quickly.

[melf] 20/9/2017 16:37

Can you tell me where all the available shares are?

[plentymorefish] 20/9/2017 16:32

disagree, they can invest the cash in buying distressed assets which give a better long term return - isn't that the business model so it would be a real contradiction in terms to start doing buybacks?

[jamtomorrow2] 20/9/2017 16:29

If there really is such a huge gap why don't they just buy-in all available shares with the vast cash resources that they have at their disposal? It seems a dereliction of duty not to do so!

[simso] 20/9/2017 13:58

This is the only share I own which does not have any Broker Research, and understand the Brothers view that its probably a waste of money. I do think that if a broker note did exist, it would probably be along the "sum of the parts" basis which Rivaldo and I have done on this post. I suspect a broker note would reach the same conclusion as we did, that a fair value is probably nearer £10-£11...and a wider audience would be aware of that fact, and the price gap between "fair value" and "current value" would be narrower than it is!