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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Volta Finance Limited | VTA | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 6.05 | 00:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.05 | 6.05 | 6.05 | 6.05 | 6.05 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| GENERAL FINANCIAL |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 22/10/2024 18:00 by cerrito sp increase today no surprise given yesterday's report of a v good September...although for a £ investor like me there are the headwinds of a weaker euro against £. |
Posted at 17/6/2024 08:12 by davebowler Liberum on FAIR-Fair Oaks Income’s NAV per share of $0.5585, as at 31 May 2024, reflected a 2.3% NAV total return in May. We summarise some of the main monthly market indicators and market commentary below: US loan default rate: Decreased from 1.31% to 1.08% m-o-m, reflecting a 15-month low. European loan default rate: Unchanged at 1.48%. Distress ratio (loans trading below 80c, a potential indicator of the direction of future defaults): Increased in the US from 5.01% to 5.44% and in Europe from 2.48% to 3.05%. Market review –refinancings and resets back on the table Greater investor appetite for risk and new sources of capital, such as US CLO equity ETFs, has resulted in inflows of $5.6bn YTD for the sector. The net supply has been negative, however, with more than 30% of CLO deals outside of their re-investment periods. With respect to FAIR, out of the 17 CLO equity deals it has exposure to, 10 are within their re-investment periods. Within the US CLO equity portfolio, MARNR 2015-1A was sold in May and ELM 2014-1A was sold post-period. A fifth EUR CLO equity investment was added with the addition of FOAKS 5X. Moreover, greater opportunities to re-finance deals was evidenced by the partial refinancing of HLM 13A-1, resulting in a 26.3 bps reduction in the cost of financing for the debt tranches above the equity stack. This resulted in a 26.3 bps reduction in the weighted average cost of financing of the deal, to c.1.7% (using the disclosed average cost of financing as at 30 April 2024). Master Fund commitment period extended by one year Reflecting opportunities such as the HLM 13A-1 re-financing and the attractive risk-adjusted returns available., it was announced earlier in June that the General Partner of FOMC III LP (the "Master Fund" of FAIR’s 2021 share class) exercised its option to extend the commitment period of the Master Fund for one year to 12 June 2025 Liberum view FAIR’s shares are now valued at a healthy premium to NAV and we think the return potential is still good. This is a performing CLO equity portfolio that is attractively valued, with the potential for higher valuations, as reflected by the sensitivity table below. With respect to the HLM 13A-1 refinancing, we note the manager’s comment in the factsheet that “we expect to see similar changes in the portfolio in the short to medium term, with CLO debt being repaid or sold at or close to par, control CLO equity investments actively exploring refinancing or potentially reset opportunities and new investments in CLO mezzanine and control equity opportunities.” The underlying loans that fund the CLO equity and CLO liabilities are senior secured bank loans that sit above high yield debt and preferred stock, and underlying loan spreads are typically in the 2.5%-4% range. The underlying valuation of the CLO equity portfolio provides plenty of slack, as the table below illustrates. We are BUYers with a target price of $0.66. |
Posted at 20/5/2024 12:36 by davebowler Hardman-Volta’s share price discount to NAV (26%) is now back to the levels seen in the early stages of the pandemic. This appears anomalous with 6.3% total shareholder return in 1Q’24, the annualised cashflows in excess of 20%, the consensus outlook, as well as the structured debt finance and all investment company averages (11% and 6%, respectively). In our view, any discount reflects investor concerns that either the current NAV is unrealistic or that it cannot be achieved in the future. In this note, we examine what may drive such concerns, concluding they are more sentiment- than reality-driven; as such, they may be less likely to be sustained. ► Why the current NAV is realistic: Volta adopts a mark-to-market approach. The NAV should be real unless the pricing sources are inaccurate, which appears unlikely. The MTM approach captures sentiment risk in the asset valuation. In our view, the risk of yet-to-be-identified losses affecting the current NAV materially are low. There are multiple checks and reviews to ensure the process is robust. ► Resilience: In previous notes, we have outlined why CLO structures have incremental risk controls and that the expected losses from such vehicles are well below corporate credit markets as a whole. We further outlined that AXA IM has consistently picked CLO managers with below-average losses. ► Valuation: Volta trades at a double discount: its share price is at a 26% discount to NAV, and we believe its MTM NAV still includes a further sentiment-driven discount to the present value of expected cashflows. Volta targets an 8% of NAV dividend (10.2% 2024E yield on current share price). ► Risks: Credit risk is a key sensitivity. In this note, we examine the valuation of assets, highlighting the multiple controls to ensure its validity. The NAV is exposed to sentiment towards its own and underlying markets. Volta’s long $ position is only partially hedged. ► Investment summary: Volta is an investment for sophisticated investors, as both the NAV and the discount to NAV may be volatile over time. Fundamental long-term returns have been robust: 8.0% p.a. (dividend reinvested basis) since inception. Volta’s performance relative to that of its peers has been strong, and returns for investments made after the financial crisis were double those in prior years. |
Posted at 17/5/2023 09:05 by davebowler Liberum on FAIR-Default rates remain below expectations Analyst: Shonil Chande Mkt Cap £156m | Share price $0.48 | Prem/(disc) -17.9% | Div yield 16.7% Event Fair Oaks Income's NAV per share at 30 April 2023 was $0.5847, representing a total return of 1.1% in the month (+5.7% YTD). Default rates continue to be significantly lower than the forecasts for 2023 issued at the end of 2022. The default rate in the US remained stable at 1.3% while in Europe it rose from 0.4% to 0.6% in April. The distressed ratio in the US remained at 8.7% and in Europe it dropped from 6.4% to 6.1%. CLO valuations continue to lag other assets, potentially as a result of investors modelling unduly negative market scenarios. Liberum view The resilience in default rates is notable and challenges the assumptions made in company models to calculate the NAV. The company points out that in early 2020, the median price of the Master Fund's US CLO equity investments fell from 67 cents to 30 cents based on predictions of increasing loan defaults due to the pandemic. However, the median price recovered to 63 cents by spring 2021 when it became clear that default rates would not increase as expected. Today, the median price of the same investments is 32 cents, indicating once again a substantial recovery potential in the NAV if default rates continue to remain below projections. We continue to be Buyers of the fund with a target price of $0.60 (+25% upside from current share price) |
Posted at 17/4/2023 10:15 by cerrito Just read the Chairman 's and Investment Manager' s statements in the interims and I hope their optimism is justified. A good point about the double discount, but that said I will not be buying more.Part a reflection as they pointed out in their last two monthly newsletters they expect CLO prices to drift down in the immediate future. We are in stormy seas and I have no real feel as to the Managers and what makes them tick as their IR strategy is not orientated towards UK private investors like me. I was interested to read the following comment on simplification which is something I had forgotten about and I suspect they are right that shareholders have not grasped the new situation, which perhaps says something about their IR. Quote Considering all that, the Company continues to pivot towards pure CLO investments benefiting from the high cash flows associated with a larger CLO equity bucket. We view this strategy as offering transparency and simplicity to our shareholders relative to an allocation mixing different and sometimes less transparent asset classes. unquote |
Posted at 15/3/2023 13:51 by yieldsearch Volta Finance (listed in Amsterdam) not allowed anymore with interactive investors as it is classified as "a packaged retail and insurance-based investment product" and they are only allowing trade in the UK listed version (less liquid and bigger bid ask)told them to read the kid because it is not really insurance based product. any reco of sipp provider providing multi currency account? |
Posted at 13/2/2023 10:32 by cwa1 PERFORMANCE and PORTFOLIO ACTIVITYVolta Finance is pleased report a strong performance of +5.5%, for the first month of 2023. Although the CLO market is accustomed to a "January rally" the moves recorded in January 2023 were well above what might have been expected. Indeed, many investors were hesitant to invest in either CLO Debt or Equity tranches towards the end of 2022 but with the start of a new calendar year, the risk/reward perception shifted and translated into significant buying interest across the board. The demand for assets that were considered as cheap at the start of 2023 (CLO spread compression was lagging the spread compression observed on most of the broader credit markets in Q4 2022) was strong and led the way to a solid January performance, after a disappointing December... |
Posted at 15/6/2022 09:31 by cerrito at least for a sterling based investor like me I am benefiting from the weakness of sterling against both the dollar and the euro |
Posted at 04/6/2022 18:03 by cerrito Just found out that there will be a zoom investor call with the VTA manager organized by Hardman this Thursday at 3 which should be interesting.hxxps://www.research |
Posted at 14/4/2022 09:18 by davebowler Liberum on Fair Oaks Income1.7%% NAV TR YTD Mkt Cap £194m | Share price $0.63 | Prem/(disc) -4.6% | Div yield 16.0% Event Fair Oaks Income has released its annual results to 31 December 2021, with the previously reported NAV per share of $0.67 representing a NAV total return of +22.7% in 2021. FAIR has also published its monthly NAV to 31 March 2022, with the $0.65 per share value representing a +0.3% NAV total return in March (+1.7% YTD). Liberum view Despite ongoing potential for NAV volatility in the near-term, we regard the 16% dividend yield as attractive. We note that the credit performance of the portfolio has been strong and there is significant headroom on overcollateralisatio |
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