Volta Finance Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 21/5/2024 21:02

Cerrito - Bt through YouInvest (AJ Bell) for my SIPP.

[waterloo01] 21/5/2024 18:13

waterloo0118 Apr '24 - 08:04 - 666 of 670 Edit
0 0 0
What's the difference between VTA and VTAS (over and above one being GBP v Euro)?

You can trade online with HL and Barclays with the VTAS (GBP) version.

[cerrito] 21/5/2024 18:08

Another good NAV performance in April and at e7,07 the highest since 30.4.22 when it was e 7.22 and the share price e5.9.
Skyship. Did you using an internet broker or a full service one? I cannot buy via my internet broker Barclays and have to use Cannaccord in the CI my full service one.

[skyship] 20/5/2024 14:19

db - thanks for posting the above. Have built up some cash recently; so decided to buy back into a few @ c513p.

The 26.9% discount and 11% yield just too irresistible!

[davebowler] 20/5/2024 13:36

Hardman-

Volta’s share price discount to NAV (26%) is now back to the levels seen in the early stages of the pandemic. This appears anomalous with 6.3% total shareholder return in 1Q’24, the annualised cashflows in excess of 20%, the consensus outlook, as well as the structured debt finance and all investment company averages (11% and 6%, respectively). In our view, any discount reflects investor concerns that either the current NAV is unrealistic or that it cannot be achieved in the future. In this note, we examine what may drive such concerns, concluding they are more sentiment- than reality-driven; as such, they may be less likely to be sustained. ► Why the current NAV is realistic: Volta adopts a mark-to-market approach. The NAV should be real unless the pricing sources are inaccurate, which appears unlikely. The MTM approach captures sentiment risk in the asset valuation. In our view, the risk of yet-to-be-identified losses affecting the current NAV materially are low. There are multiple checks and reviews to ensure the process is robust. ► Resilience: In previous notes, we have outlined why CLO structures have incremental risk controls and that the expected losses from such vehicles are well below corporate credit markets as a whole. We further outlined that AXA IM has consistently picked CLO managers with below-average losses. ► Valuation: Volta trades at a double discount: its share price is at a 26% discount to NAV, and we believe its MTM NAV still includes a further sentiment-driven discount to the present value of expected cashflows. Volta targets an 8% of NAV dividend (10.2% 2024E yield on current share price). ► Risks: Credit risk is a key sensitivity. In this note, we examine the valuation of assets, highlighting the multiple controls to ensure its validity. The NAV is exposed to sentiment towards its own and underlying markets. Volta’s long $ position is only partially hedged. ► Investment summary: Volta is an investment for sophisticated investors, as both the NAV and the discount to NAV may be volatile over time. Fundamental long-term returns have been robust: 8.0% p.a. (dividend reinvested basis) since inception. Volta’s performance relative to that of its peers has been strong, and returns for investments made after the financial crisis were double those in prior years.

[hpcg] 18/4/2024 19:58

I would always be the Euro issue on Euronext, much much better liquidity, low spread and live prices on the Euronext website if you don't have level 2 on foreign exchanges.

[waterloo01] 18/4/2024 08:04

What's the difference between VTA and VTAS (over and above one being GBP v Euro)?

[davebowler] 18/4/2024 03:42

Liberum Structured CreditFair Oaks Income Good time to be allocating to CLO equityAnalyst: Shonil ChandeMkt Cap £183m | Share price $0.56 | Prem/(disc) -0.9% | Div yield 14.3%EventFair Oaks Income's NAV per share increased by 0.7% (+3.8% NAV TR YTD) in the monthly period to 31 March 2024, to $0.565. We summarise some of the main monthly market indicators below:US loan default rate: Decreased from 1.41% to 1.14% m-o-m.European loan default rate: Decreased from 1.86% to 1.65% m-o-m.Distress ratio (loans trading below 80c, a potential indicator of the direction of future defaults): Declined in the US from 5.08% to 4.95% and in Europe from 2.80% to 2.78%.Liberum viewAnother good update underlining why FAIR's CLO equity-focused strategy is an attractive place to allocate to given the lowering default rates in the broader leveraged loan markets, high distributions, relatively benign macro and the fact that CLO equity valuations have the potential to follow the normalisation path seen in CLO mezzanine debt.?This is a performing CLO equity portfolio that is attractively valued, with potential for higher valuations. We note the manager's comment (factsheet) that "the weighted average price for US CLO equity in the Master Fund's portfolio has decreased from 39.6c to 36.2c in the last 12 months while the weighted average loan bid price has risen from 93.7c to 96.6c in the same period and ii) cash-flow multiples: c. 3.5x based on March's valuations and annualised quarterly cash-flows."The chart below is a sensitivity based on the CLO portfolio, as at 31 December 2023. It shows the significant slack embedded into the valuation of the US CLO equity portfolio. We also note that the high yields in CLO equity are driven by the excess distributions to the equity holder once all liabilities are paid to debt tranches. The underlying loans that fund the CLO equity and CLO liabilities are senior secured bank loans that side above high yield debt and preferred stock and underlying loan spreads are typically in the 2.5%-4% range. We are BUYers with a target price of $0.66.

[cerrito] 17/4/2024 20:14

Yes v good update on strong first quarter.
Surprised-not sure if I should be- that CCC represents 7.1pc of US portfolio.
I note that in the six months to March 24 they generated e27.1m of interest and coupons. The equivalent figure in the 6 months to March 23 was e22.1m and e21.3m in 6 months to March 22.
What will this do to the share price ??I ask myself

[cwa1] 28/3/2024 11:33

XD day today, as noted above pay day is 25/4

[bluemango] 21/3/2024 09:28

Increased quarterly dividend, up from 13.5c to 14c. Payable 25th April.

Makes FY dividend 0.56 Eur, or around 11% yield.

[cerrito] 18/3/2024 20:00

Interesting once again no mention of defaults.
I assume it is because they think of it as a non story but would be good to get confirmation.
I have written to the company asking them to comment on defaults next month.

[cerrito] 16/2/2024 21:01

Good increase in NAV to E6.89 at 31.1.24, the highest since 30.4.22. I would have preferred it if they had commented on defaults in their monthly report.

[cerrito] 17/1/2024 22:13

Pretty impressive increase in NAV in 2023 from E5.84 to E6.7 but still well below the 31.12.21 NAV of E7.27

[cerrito] 18/12/2023 23:03

Today's November report v upbeat compared to the softness they reported on at the end of September

[bluemango] 07/12/2023 13:35

Increased Q4 dividend announced, payable 25th January, .135 Eur. If annualised that makes an annual payment of 0.54 Eur, an increase of 3.8%.

[yieldsearch] 30/11/2023 15:30

hxxps://www.twentyfouram.com/insights/clo-metrics-remain-robust-as-leveraged-loans-beat-expectations?utm_source=Pardot&utm_medium=Email+Organic&utm_campaign=Blog&utm_term=UK+Wholesale&utm_content=Organic+Email

[cerrito] 16/10/2023 22:38

The following para of the monthly report issued today caught my eye.
Yes at the end of September the mood in the markets did shift and we need to brace ourselves for the NAV to decline in the coming months. I guess logically I should sell and I would if the shares were more liquid. Zero interest in buying given the rough seas ahead.
Not sure if the September tailwind of being long USD against the Euro will last that much longer.

quote
September recorded another strong month for leveraged loans with US and European markets moving up again (ELLI was up 1.1% while US LLI was up c.1.0% according to Pitchbook LCD) even though some market softness started to show at the end of the month alongside other credit markets. This impacted some of our US CLO debt exposures that were marked lower at the end of the month
unquote

[davebowler] 28/9/2023 10:19

Liberum on FAIR -

Analyst: Joachim Klement

Mkt Cap £176m | Share price $0.53 | Prem/(disc) -9.2% | Div yield 15.2%

Event Half-year report confirms quality of investment portfolio

Fair Oaks Income released its interim report for the six months ended 30 June 2023. For the reporting period, the NAV total return was 9.0% compared to -5.3% in the same period 2022. The NAV total return for the realisation shares was 9.7% (vs. -5.0% in the same period 2022). The increase in Nav has continued in the months since June. The August NAV was $0.581 for the 2021 shares for an additional 3% appreciation in NAV in the last two months.

Over the period, the Master Fund received total distributions of $33.2m (H1 22: $45.0m). Distributions in January were negatively impacted by large movements in Libor and Euribor which affected the CLO assets and liabilities differently due to timing issues. Distributions recovered in April. The focus on originating and controlling CLO subordinated notes has resulted in fundamental performance above the market average. Origination and control allowed the Master Funds to veto specific loans when the transactions were launched and to monitor and influence the CLOs over time. Lower fees in primary investments also allowed CLO managers to construct more conservative portfolios with no need to reach for yield. As a result, the Master Funds have benefitted from underexposure to sectors such as retail or energy.


Liberum view

In our in-depth note in August (Fair Oaks Income (BUY, TP $0.7) - Attractive CLO equity return outlook (43 pgs)) we emphasised the opportunity in CLO markets at the moment. As FAIR is marking its CLOs to market rather than mark-to-model, the downside is already reflected in the price and the ongoing recovery in loan markets leads to a significant pull on NAV higher. Add tot hat the sector-leading dividend yield of 15.4% and we recommend BUYing the fund with a TP of $0.66.

[bluemango] 20/9/2023 08:56

Q3 dividend maintained at €0.13, payment 12th Oct.