Vietnam Share Discussion Threads

[don muang] 22/1/2007 13:15

nice to see some more posters on this thread.... also nice to see VNH up3.3% so far today ...
let's see if VNH can invest their remaining cash 'wisely' - apparently LDC are not going ahead with their Vietnam Fund now (the one I mentioned in post 69) as they've said it's presently difficult to find good value opportunities ...

[simon gordon] 22/1/2007 12:40

In Business on Radio 4 last night broadcast a show looking at Nam's great growth story. I think if you hit the 4 website it should be in the archives.

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Mr. Faber, publisher of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report, does have some favourites. Singapore and Vietnam are his top picks in Asia because stocks in Singapore aren't "terribly expensive compared with interest rates" in the city-state, while Vietnam's equities have "incredible potential in the long run."



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The Vietnamese government aims to increase the value of its stock market from 6 percent of GDP at present to between 20 and 30 percent over the next four years,
according to Tran Dac Sinh, director of the Ho Chi Minh City Securities Trading Centre.

Achieving these targets would see the stock market's value surge to $24 billion, based on the predicted GDP of $80 billion by 2010 – a gain of 774% on current
levels or a compounded annual growth of 67%. Simply achieving the lowest rate of 20% of GDP by 2010 would see the market grow by 516% over the next four years.

[grippa] 19/1/2007 10:19

Vietnamese Stocks Surge Past 1,000 for 12th Gain in 13 Sessions
2007-01-19 04:46 (New York)


By Jason Folkmanis
Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnamese stocks surged in the
biggest gain in more than two weeks and the 12th advance in 13
sessions, buoyed by World Trade Organization accession, economic
growth and favorable comparisons with regional competitors.
The Ho Chi Minh City Securities Trading Center's VN Index
climbed 4.1 percent, the biggest gain since Jan. 4, to a record
1,023.05. The bourse's benchmark index has surged 36 percent
this year and tripled since the end of 2005.
Vietnam joined the World Trade Organization on Jan. 11,
capping a two-month stretch in which the country hosted the
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, U.S. President George W.
Bush visited the Ho Chi Minh City bourse, and the government
said Vietnam's economy expanded 8.2 percent in 2006. The
government predicts growth may accelerate to 8.5 percent in 2007.
``After APEC and George Bush, everyone thinks Vietnam is
the next big thing,'' said Chris Freund, managing director of
Mekong Capital in Ho Chi Minh City. ``Everyone seems to be
discovering Vietnam for the first time. The media coverage of
Vietnam in the U.S. is off the charts.''
The surge has boosted the market value of the Ho Chi Minh
City bourse, which now has 106 companies, past the $12 billion
mark. At the end of 2005, the exchange had a market value of
less than $1 billion.
``The equity market in Vietnam has undergone an astounding
transformation over the last year,'' wrote Spencer White of
Merrill Lynch in Hong Kong, in a Jan. 12 report. ``Not only does
economic growth remain robust, at circa 8 percent, but the
ongoing policy uncertainty in Thailand may provide some
incremental boost to the flow of foreign direct investment into
Vietnam.''
The SET Index, Thailand's key stock measure, has fallen
about 10 percent since Dec. 18, after the central bank imposed
capital controls to curb speculation on the baht. Bomb blasts in
Bangkok on New Year's Eve also undermined investor confidence.

Bank Share Sales

Share sales in larger state-owned companies in Vietnam will
be a market catalyst this year, White said in his report.
Vietnam's government said on Jan. 5 that it plans to sell shares
in four state-owned banks -- including three of the four biggest
-- this year.
Only one bank, Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial Joint-Stock
Bank, trades on the Ho Chi Minh City bourse. Asia Commercial
Bank trades on Vietnam's smaller stock exchange in Hanoi.
Both banks are already at the 30 percent maximum for
foreign investment in Vietnamese banks, a limit that is also
expected to apply for the four state-owned banks to be sold this
year, according to Phung Khac Ke, deputy governor of the State
Bank of Vietnam.
The first two bank share sales are the Bank for Foreign
Trade of Vietnam, known as Vietcombank, and the Housing Bank of
the Mekong Delta. Vietcombank is Vietnam's second-biggest bank
by assets.
``The foreign limit on the banks looks likely to be
maintained at 30 percent,'' White said. ``Investors looking for
bank exposure will still have to wait for the initial public
offering of Vietcombank.''
The surge on the Vietnamese index has boosted shares of
Vietnam country funds traded on foreign stock exchanges, with
the London-listed Vietnam Opportunity Fund Ltd. jumping 24
percent this year while Vietnam Holdings Ltd., also traded in
London, has gained 10 percent this year.
``There's too much capital coming in too fast,'' said
Freund of Mekong Capital. ``The market is crazy now, but it
could get crazier. Markets always overshoot.''

[don muang] 19/1/2007 08:03

!!! Close above 1,000 for the first time by VN Index !!!

HO CHI MINH STOCK INDEX 19/01/2007
Value 1,023.05. Change 39.960 (4.065%)

Wonder what VNH will close at? (Presume it'll reflect a new high as well).

[don muang] 18/1/2007 09:55

so by end of December then VNH was 23.59% invested ...

[don muang] 15/1/2007 17:04

transaction sizes getting bigger .... 20/30/40k at a time ... so looks like additional institutional interest in VNH now.... (about time !!).

[don muang] 15/1/2007 11:05

would guess it's still about 'potential'. the last monthly report (available on VNH website) showed that at end November only 17.62% of funds had so far been actively invested. so the $64k question is that do VNH have enough contacts out to ensure they get in o suitable pre-IPO offers? only time will tell on that but it was established to "invest primarily in the initial public offerings (IPOs) and pre-IPO securities of State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) in Vietnam"

another Vietnam play worth investigating might be the new fund coming soon from London Asia - that should be available sometime in 2007 - hopefully in H1. it'll already be invested in opportunities by the time PI's get a chance to buy in.

"Vietnam Fund: London Asia has entered into a memorandum of understanding with Vietcombank Fund Management ("VCBF") to launch a fund for investment in Vietnam. VCBF is a Vietnamese Government licensed fund management business, which is a joint venture between the Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam ("Vietcombank), a leading bank in Vietnam, and Singapore incorporated Viet Capital Holding ("VCH"). It already manages one of the first on-shore funds for investment in Vietnam. The VCBF team, headed by Dr LIM Boh Soon, has significant experience of investing in South East Asia, and consists of professionals from Rothschilds, UBS, VCB, UOB, and KPMG.

The proposed fund will focus on seeking capital growth via investment in pre-IPO opportunities and late stage companies in Vietnam. It will be jointly managed by London Asia and VCBF, with VCBF providing access to deal flow and local due diligence, and London Asia providing its expertise in exiting and financing Asian investments through international markets.

The Fund will invest in Vietnamese businesses which are being privatised as part of the Vietnam governments move to a more market economy, and businesses looking to list on capital markets worldwide. The manager will seek businesses, whose products and services will benefit from Vietnam's economic growth, increasing wealth and anticipated entry into the World Trade Organisation later this year. Vietnam has a young, well-educated, skilled and motivated work force and low operating costs."

[mangal] 15/1/2007 10:25

DM, thanks for your response on the other thread. Do you think VNH's 20% premium to NAV may actually be reasonable because some the underlying holdings may be valued at book cost rather than the current market value?

[don muang] 12/1/2007 07:27

well, the VN Index is now through the 900 level .... not bad for an index that was created with a base value of 100 in 2000 .... and the stock market was only open 'part-time' until 2002 (it opened on alternative days for the first couple of years).

so, with sentiment still very positive in VN, and plenty of new ivestment opportunities to come in 2007, then I'm happy to sit on my VNH until further notice. pending any macro developements that significantly affect S E Asia, then these are going in the bottom draw .....

[don muang] 11/1/2007 09:07

hi Huntie....Good Morning.... welcome back to a wet and windy UK !!!

Very basic calculation of taking % growth of Vietnam index since 1st Jan, estimating that just half of that % will apply to the increase in NAV of VNH, and taking in to account present VNH SP, means that we seem to be in a position of VNH share price now being at under 10% premium. Therefore would seem that (providing Vietnam doesn't tank completely and sentiment decrease so that premium is reduced to a discount) the VNH share price might now track the VN Index for a while. Let's see....

Took my profits in VOF after the New Year. Subsequently used a portion of those proceeds to add to my VNH position. Therefore VNH is my sole Vietnam 'play' now. Time will tell..... !?

[huntie2] 11/1/2007 08:54

good morning Do Muang! Good to be back in the UK, though Canada was marvellous, and no it wasn't too windy but it was very rainy! Not surprised to see a little consolidation in the SP, nothing moves in a vertical direction for ever! Would nice to see some stabilisation now.

[don muang] 11/1/2007 07:27

After a 12-year wait, then today's the day that Vietnam will get the WTO membership card today. A ceremony of admitting Vietnam into the WTO will take place in Geneva, Switzerland at 9 am, Geneva time. Vietnam will becomes the 150th World Trade Organization member. It is "a historic day for the country" said a key government economist.

[don muang] 10/1/2007 17:11

a bit of lite thirst quenching news....

Vietnam to hold first traditional booze festival ....
Hanoi will host next month Vietnam's first-ever festival to showcase traditional liquor made from rice, fruits, tree leaves, corn, and other farm produce.

[don muang] 09/1/2007 12:46

Not outstanding - the NAV up about 3.5% during December - although won't complain if that can be maintained as an average monthy increase. Premium is now about 21% - which although high is still much lower than VOF (which even after a couple of days of share price falls presently has a premium of about 54%).

[don muang] 05/1/2007 15:56

but looking on the bright side for existing holders of this $ demoninated fund, we now have a little more £'s worth as $ rate now fallen under 1.93... (it didn't make the $2.00 = £1.00 that was being predicted a few days ago).

[don muang] 05/1/2007 10:33

with VN Index breaking thru 800 today, then the positive sentiment in Vietnam continues ....
but guess the premium on the VNH and VOF funds is having a limiting effect on the VNH and VOF share price prices. VNH with it's smaller premium is holding steady, whilst VOF with it's much larger premium is falling today. The NAV's should be out next week so that'll give us updated info.

[don muang] 02/1/2007 07:54

huntie2.... thanks.... Happy New Year .... Good Luck for 2007...
just listening to Bloomberg .... they seem quite bullish on Asian emerging markets for 2007 - so positive sentiment is still there.

Some postings on 'general' financial news are on the new VIET advfn thread....

hope it was less windy in Canada than UK for the New Year....

[huntie2] 02/1/2007 07:49

merry christmas etc. (a little late), don muang! have been in canada, back in uk soon. best wishes for 2007

[don muang] 28/12/2006 14:56

... and looks like we'll have to wait until tomorrow for the AGM .... hope they're enjoying themselves in the Caymen Islands....

[don muang] 28/12/2006 09:19

Seems Peru was fastest growing index this year (so far) - followed by Vietnam.
Saudi and Dubai have fallen most.

[don muang] 26/12/2006 15:29

Foreign investors have begun to inject capital into real estates projects in Vietnam, especially Ho Chi Minh City, betting on prospects that the market would come back to life in the coming years.

[don muang] 26/12/2006 15:21

encouraging prediction that VN-Index will hit a new record high of 900 points by the end of next month....

"Vietnam's stock exchange, Asia's hottest performer at the moment rebounded Tuesday after a three consecutive day plunge with 43 gainers and 30 losers."

Full story at:

[don muang] 24/12/2006 15:53

Merry Xmas and Happy New Year to all readers of this thread....
Good Luck for 2007.

Ho Chi Minh City-based Saigontourist company is set to welcome around 2,700 tourists on British and Italian cruise ships who will celebrate Christmas in Vietnam.....


and looks like the weathers better than UK Xmas (not surprisibly).
Santa Claus is to have an easy time of it in Vietnam if the weather forecasters have their way, calling for warm weather and no rain in sight for Christmas Sunday and Monday. ...

[don muang] 21/12/2006 20:37

Vietnam shares plunge after hitting new heights.....

Market watchdogs attributed the market's decline to investors booking interest...

but...

There is speculation that the VN-Index can inch up to 900 or even higher points by the year's end as the bourse continues to expand with more listings underway.



but this doesn't 'help':

Thai markets remaining volatile