Value And Income Share Discussion Threads

[shalder] 16/10/2020 16:58

That's exactly my problem with this. Imo there is a little bit of playing with language here as there is no way that a valuation of property AS AT 30 September would be available to the company ON 30 Sep unless the whole process is so superficial as to be completed within one working day. Hence I think there is info on the property valuation we don't have yet, and it is unlikely to be good.

[charlesdb] 16/10/2020 15:15

Nett asset values at Sept 30th on the London Stock Exchange website. As you say, the NAV statement is misleading. it's not clear whether a property revaluation is included. I suspect not. The whole situation lacks clarity and to me that is a warning signal. I reckon the property valuation would need a significant write down, which would show up in the NAV.

[topvest] 15/10/2020 20:42

It's unclear whether the September property valuation is factored into the NAV at the moment. I suspect not. Anyone actually know as the NAV announcements are rather misleading.

[charlesdb] 15/10/2020 16:25

Too many pubs. Absolutely. Imagine you were CEO of a pub chain, suffering under the cosh of Covid. Would you agree to inflation linked rent reviews? Not a chance in my opinion. Same applies to leisure. The property market will have to undergo changes but The Board of VIN either don't seem to understand, or are not being honest with shareholders. I believe the latter. Solid covenants don't mean that the tenants are naive. VIN are highly geared which is great if you can more than cover the borrowings with rent receipts and have money over to pay shareholders dividends. i think VIN may be in trouble on their property portfolio, but let's see. It's an interesting case study.

[spectoacc] 14/10/2020 08:53

Back to retest support for the 4th time. Have a tiny residual holding in VIN, & keep eye on it to one day buy again in size, but agree with your points @topvest. However, far from convinced their property is going to be as good going forward. Scanning back through the 2020 Report - page 22 here: Https://www.olim.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/VIT-2020-Annual-Report-web.pdf they have 11 pubs & 4 leisure, out of 26 assets. In value terms, pubs roughly equals industrials, with Leisure another 50% of that. All the covenants are good, the tenants solid (eg Greene King, MAB, Shepherd Neame) but - just no. The "Leisure" could more accurately be described as "Bowling" [Edit - see below] (but at least isn't cinemas), & the closest they get to retail is a bunch of Co-ops. But that's too many pubs in this market IMO. [Edit - half the Leisure is actually bingo, other half is bowling. And can argue a fair bit in price already on this discount. But there'll surely be some hefty NAV downgrades to come on the property side, more so if there's some pub CVA's.].

[topvest] 16/9/2020 21:36

To be fair to OLIM their property record has been better than their equity record, carefully selecting index linked leases on a reasonably strong covenant. Let's see what happens, but yes all a bit bizarre. That's the main criticism I have with the current board. They have not been transparent at all as to why the 2 founders resigned. They don't seem to want to keep shareholders properly informed.

[spectoacc] 16/9/2020 21:16

Https://citywire.co.uk/investment-trust-insider/news/value-and-income-brings-back-oakeshott-to-save-dividend-hero-status/a1401881?ref=investment-trust-insider-latest-news-list Want to buy more property, hmm. Perhaps invest in some of the huge-discount REITs instead?

[chuckol] 12/9/2020 10:39

topvest/spectoacc, two prolific, pompous old farts who know nothing but are always making troll-predictions that don't come true since at least 2016. Thick-skinned though.... 31,000 posts between them, can you believe it?

[spectoacc] 12/9/2020 08:05

Missed that, but isn't it all a little bizarre? The sudden exit. The votes against at the AGM. Now he's back as a non-exec - why not an exec? How can he be non-exec of VIN, yet Chairman of OLIM, which manages the property? Or is that why he's non-exec? Is he representing his 24% shareholding, or OLIM? Need to look back through the property holdings but there's at least a few worrying ones.

[topvest] 11/9/2020 21:30

A sensible move appointing Matthew Oakeshott as a director. Strategic review. With his 24% holding they can't do anything without Matthew being 'on-board'. I am pleased he is back on the board. It was a nonsense him leaving in the first place. Overall, his property record has been good.

[charlesdb] 16/8/2020 14:05

"Leverage may be used where it is believed that the assets funded by borrowed monies will generate a return in excess of the cost of borrowing. As a proportion of the assets are invested in commercial property an external valuer, Savills plc (or another appropriately qualified valuer) will independently revalue the properties in the portfolio every six months on or around 31 March and 30 September respectively." The above are quotes from the latest disclosure document. Leverage: "Will the income of the trust, in this age of dividend cuts and rent arrears be sufficient to cover interest from borrowings. Property valuations: Will the estimates offer a true valuation of the property assets. Do Savills really know the true valuation ? How reliable will the valuations be? Too many danger signs for me, cynic that I am. As I still have a few shares in VIN, after selling the bulk of them last month after using up my CGT allowance, I shall watch and wait with interest; but as an income stock, which is why I held this IT in the first place, the problems are compounded by the problems of the property holdings imo. The prospects of this company have now become highly speculative.

[topvest] 16/8/2020 12:34

Yes, agreed. That's where the discount and potential wind-up in 5 years comes into play. Still no update on Matthew Oakeshott, yet he has his picture on page 12 of the property section. Given that he has been removed, that is odd. Pictures have not been updated. 24% of the votes (Matthew Oakeshott) wanted the Chairman to step down last time around. I do think the Board should have been more open about what happened, rather than carrying on the pretence that all is well. Clearly Matthew Oakeshott has fallen out with James Ferguson, but must be indirectly involved given his ownership position at OLIM Property. Expect a fightback.

[spectoacc] 16/8/2020 12:23

Solves, but at cost of NAV. Still the very curious Oakeshott stuff recently too, & some interesting voting.

[topvest] 16/8/2020 11:34

It is, but you are missing that they have £90m of equities, which are liquid investments. I would not be interested in adding to a pure property play, but the equity cushion solves any potential gearing issue.

[charlesdb] 15/8/2020 16:43

Just remeber,the trust is highly geared because of the property at 44%. That's where the risk lies.

[topvest] 15/8/2020 16:13

I'm not pro-property at the moment at all. I agree with you on that front. This does look quite good value though with the discount. Even if they take a hit on the property value of £10m to £60m there is £90m of equity and net debt of only c£50m. I'm inclined to watch and wait, but could be a good top-up point in the Autumn.

[charlesdb] 15/8/2020 15:53

I remember when Directors of Royal Bank of Scotland made share purchases when the shares in RBS plunged. Like a fool I thought things couldn't be too bad and the shares would recover. So I followed the Directors. I lost a packet. Since then I have never trusted Director's share purchases, because often the action is taken to boost confidence in the company. No doubt VIN shares, on a big discount will recover eventually on a 10 year timescale; but currently I feel they are speculative because of the property holdings. Some of the Directors have family shareholdings so it makes sense for them to buy for the very long term, when the price is on it's back - although a second Coronavius wave is still a possibility - but I still feel that long leases and inflation linking which is mentioned in their statement is an over optimistic assessment and stretched credibility, so income will fall at some point. If you are patient, yes, there is money to be made, depending on your age and timescale. However, if one needs income now, I feel there are better places to put the money; but certainly not in property.

[topvest] 15/8/2020 14:01

Yes, a very interesting read in the Annual Report. The share portfolio at £90m looks defensively positioned. The £70m property portfolio looks OK, but they are not being as open as some on 1. Rent collection and 2. The impact of insolvencies. Adelie Foods (8% of rent) has already gone into administration and is not carrying on trading per the administrators proposals. Stonegate Pubs (16% of rental income) is the highest risk as Tenpin (9%) has done an equity raise. It's definitely significant that James Ferguson, John Kay and Dominic Neary have made meaningful share purchases though since the results. They are high quality directors. I am tempted to Add. Might wait for the September property valuation first though!

[charlesdb] 01/8/2020 11:34

I wish you the best of luck then. They talk about Long Leases with inflation linking. They either know something we don't about the property market post Covid, or they are whistling in the wind. Personally and in my opinion, I don't believe them.

[charlesdb] 01/8/2020 11:34

I wish you the best of luck then. They talk about Long Leases with inflation linking. They either know something we don't about the property market post Covid, or they are whistling in the wind. Personally and in my opinion, I don't believe them.

[ygor705] 31/7/2020 12:41

Annual report an interesting read. Income down around 35% on the combined portfolios but next year there will be a cash flow boost of around 900 k per annum the the March Debenture refinancing. Dividends don't look to be in danger at the moment. Solid hold for me.

[spectoacc] 10/7/2020 16:54

Yet to change view from Post 111 - if anything, it's getting more murky. Everything has a price but VIN isn't at mine yet.

[charlesdb] 10/7/2020 13:07

This Trust is bad news. I have been a long term holder and I thought it would be a forever holding producing a regular stream of income; but the borrowings and propery portfolio have been badly injured by Covid, we've yet to see how badly. I always liked the fact that the people who ran this trust had "skin in the game". The fact that the AGM has been postponed and that there is no interim news ie what % of rent has been paid on the property front is a warning sign. I've bailed out. Times are changing and the entire portfolio strategy needs reviewing.

[asmodeus] 05/7/2020 21:14

There is an old adage "it takes longer to add up bad figures than good ones". We will see....

[welloiledbeefhooked] 05/7/2020 13:44

No problem. If I ever need to know anything about my investments such as dividends or when the next trading update is I usually e-mail the company directly. Most people reply fairly promptly.