Valirx Share Discussion Threads

[wulber] 04/5/2023 07:05

Are you the new NOMAD, LOL.P9 give it a rest - too much now!

[porky9] 04/5/2023 06:00

I do think the next few weeks are going to be crucial here, they cant hold back the financial report much longer and will need to outline the forward plans shortly.

Will be interesting for sure...

But, no matter i am kind of on the page now we need at the very least Adam on the board in some capacity even if its just as NED and an outside industry CEO with commercial experience appointed and Suzy moved to head sciences.

[porky9] 04/5/2023 05:55

@Nick
Yes, sorry you are correct regarding 301, its 401 we only own part of, got my reference numbers mixed up.

I really want to see a total board change excepting Suzy being moved to head sciences where she is brilliant and Stella if she puts her hand in her pocket and supports but otherwise, Kevin, Gerry and Martin can all go for me. Then on the management team time to call time on Mark, corporate dev what's that about? Only BDM i know of that has never brought any revenue in. Anyhow i digress.

On LSE head ramper PM2022 was trying to argue the point with me that the new management team was better than the old. This was my reply as it will likely be removed shortly:-

@PM2022
You mention how the “old management” tried to bankrupt the company and how Suzy took it from half a million value to present day. Initially, I thought like that but in reality, Suzy, Kevin and Gerry were part of the old team and since her tenure we have had five placings and about to go into our sixth and IMO unfortunately we are being proved that the old ethos is very much still alive as it was back then.

Further, I would argue that the decision not to raise whilst waiting on THX to deliver and end up with that emergency raise at 10p on the AGM was also reckless, funds had practically run out and had they not had the headroom to issue shares it would have been game over. So, you could argue the “new management” tried to bankrupt the company in the same way.

The decision by Suzy to stick by THX resulted in that final hour raise BUT Gerry the CFO also resided over that, why wasn’t he advising Suzy how dangerous that was for the business financially? And if he was, why wasn’t she listening? So, IMO he is just as culpable as Suzy.

I would argue that cash was originally well managed, now I would argue that spending is massively increasing at a time when most of the biotech sector are battening down the hatches and trying to preserve cash. They can’t run cash down to the wire again as they have no headroom shares to issue now and need shareholder approval. So, the raise must come earlier in H2 to ensure they can remain viable as a going concern.

As for the new strategy, I agree with you it’s probably the right call BUT its going to take time and more capital to see it through. I am not sure about the buy and build part of the strategy as raising capital at lower market caps results in more dilution, that part of the strategy should probably be put on hold for now but there are no signs, yet they are ditching that part of the business plan.

[nico115] 03/5/2023 17:08

We do own 100pct of 301Yes the BOD have missed a great bull market for biotech and must know there is zero chance with Theoremx What a waste of time and is so costly for us as we now have so many dilutions and also for the poor patients who need this drug .Wouldn't upset me if the BOD all resigned over this fiasco Would like Suzy to stay as she has a lot to offer. Just not as ceo as she's totally out of her depth imho .

[wulber] 03/5/2023 17:03

Yawn, yawn, anything said here will not entice people to buy or sell so why not save your energy until we have something concrete to all talk about and go to radio silence so please can we have some calm and patience until we receive the next news?The point being that all this tripe is innuendo, speculation and guess work for some (naming no names, lol) to feed their own agendas, which incidentally is not working and if anything just annoys and rattles posters on here (and LSE for that matter).

[porky9] 03/5/2023 16:08

@Jasonpugh
I did congratulate you on 301 as I was oblivious that the product was not 100% owned by Valirx and it’s shareholders. Nothing underhand or not disclosed just not obvious without digging deep.

As for hidden agendas, shorting etc, you can take any view you want but I can 100% assure you I have no interest in shorting or looking to buy in cheap. I will only buy in here and build a main position when the board structure is sorted and I don’t care if that’s 1p 5p 10p or 50p - I’m not buying at the current levels with the board as it with utter contempt for shareholders and it’s current direction.

Once changes are made, different ball game, until then this stock is massively expensive especially with guaranteed dilution for working capital and a buy and build plan to add to costs over and above the current increased overheads at a time when the entire biotech sector is battening down the hatches and trying to preserve cash during the current biotech financial drought. Just poor management positions.

That’s how it is anyhow, accept it or not, matters not to me but don’t assume, I play with a straight bat and that’s the honest truth - take care

[jasonpugh] 03/5/2023 14:11

Hi porky. Im not concerned about your financial personal welfare. Im pointing out the complete obvious.your investment strategy is appalling. The only conclusion is you have no shares in val and you have a split personality (one who buys and one who shorts) and you’ve forgotten which one is which. 👌 ps when you say i over analyse remember you congratulated me on the rigorous 401 rns the other week👍 Additionally there are some extremely vulnerable investors on here who like your comments but dont have the financial intelligence to spot your motive. No oooo. Fence

[jasonpugh] 03/5/2023 12:05

Suzy hasn’t tweeted since 12th april. Has she been told not to mislead investors as her overconfidence tweets have misled investors in the past or does she realise that her position on the board is unsustainable?ԁ05;🏻‍💻

[francoismyname] 03/5/2023 11:39

Down again I see.

On all known variables this is still a very very expensive stock.

How they have managed after 12 years with no income to still be in existence baffles me.

[porky9] 03/5/2023 11:03

@Wulber
The other issue after a funding drought is not just the time period before active investments start to flow again, its the fact that the period results in an avalanche of proposals coming in all seeking funding. There are a lot of hungry mouths out there currently. So they become far more selective where the funds go.

Why would a fund back a one man start up with 50m plus Investment capital when they have an in tray of proposals and loads of options, some of which is real heavy discounted deals to attract support?

To put it mildly, i don't know this Ken Sorensen from Adam, he might be a perfectly nice guy but we have very little to go off, no business profile as such, past history/ experience of deals done, never seen a prospectus or website or anything regarding the proposed TheoremRx business, its structure, if its a private business or if it seeks a listing, if they are going for a listing, do they have an appointed brokers or advisors working on the deal?, can we get any clarity?

We don't have the information that Suzy has seen granted so impossible to say but after nearly two years we should know this information by now, would you not agree?. You would expect some visibility by now. We know its a start up but that's it.

My other issue would be that even if it got some cash towards funding stage 1/2 trials would there come a further delay when they try to raise again to cover the first stage milestone payments?

In my mind, i appreciate hindsight is a wonderful thing but it was a bad call to go with a start up without funding in place.

At this point i would actually take a 201 deal with any major (AZN, GSK, Merck etc etc) that would take it forward funding trials for an initial FREE / ZERO payment down BUT a decent guaranteed payment of say £5m on it reaching its first milestone with them. That would give both parties something to work towards, de-risk some of the deal (setting up trials is expensive) for the big biotech BUT what a win for shareholders knowing what's in the pipeline and that proper funded trial progress is really happening rather than just being talked about.

VAL needs a bloody good dealmaker / negotiator and Suzy isn't it, a great scientist yes but not an experienced commercial negotiator- that's how i see it anyhow but hey she might surpise us and drop an RNS confirming THX has secured funding and our £1.3m will be winging its way to the Valirx Bank account on CHAPS at any moment???

Then again i might start flying...

[jasonpugh] 03/5/2023 10:58

@porky. According to your estimate you will lose 60% of your investment (200,000 at 10p=£20k)to (200,000 at 4p = £8k) £12k loss how on earth can this be logical?
Would you please send your reasoning for not selling to warran buffett of Berkshire and send his response. 😂

[porky9] 03/5/2023 09:51

@Wulber
He can be a NED as long as he moves Suzy to head sciences and gets rid of Kevin, Gerry and Martin from the BOD. Gets a new CEO appointed with commercial experience, a new FD and one or two other connected and ideally investing NEDS to join the board.

On the management side he also calls time on Mark, corporate development give me strength, what development exactly?

You can probably get away with being a passenger at VAL because overheads don't matter its free cash anyhow and the BOD just want to be nice and liked hence why they cant make difficult decisions.

@jasonpugh
Not that its your business but i have significant capital gains due to funds account gains and some non listed share sales. The ISA limits are pathetically low so if i sell i also have to consider CGT and i lose my marker if i decide to support a future placing. You are right though, probably on balance i should top up a progressing stock rather than leave it.

@Pinkpudycat
100% in agreement with you, should be fixed but the BOD are unlikely to rock the boat pre the AGM, more likely seek re-election first. Shareholders wont have an alternative they wont want the ship without a CEO. They would however vote her out in a heart beat if an alternative was proposed. As i say, i think its going to get interesting, the BOD certainly have heat on them to deliver thats for sure.

[wulber] 03/5/2023 09:37

Well, 2022 was a complete right-off with the Unkraine/Russia situation and the whole investment arena was placed on hold as fears of spiralling inflation and interest rates as most houses went defensive (gold, fixed interest, cash) meant investors were not committing any new funds to new ventures so there was +12 months up in smoke for starters!I know of a similar issue during C19 which turned off the investment tap for 24 months and when things unblocked it was still time before anyone would look at a new investment proposal.

[nico115] 03/5/2023 09:29

Yes I can see him as a NED What makes you think after 2 years Theoremx will finally raise the funds ?

[wulber] 03/5/2023 09:16

The irony of all this is how fickle and short term minded all PI's are!Lets say, THX comes off as planned albeit late, the lab is swamped with new business in addition to VAL's own IP, CLX and all the pre-clinic IP (and legacy) striding ahead, this price back to 30p for starters then everyone will say "Wow" well done SD!I may be wrong but l think Adam is not going to jack in a successful business he has built to join VAL probably earning many multiples of what VAL would pay, unless perhaps in a NED role at the very most due to being the largest shareholder.

[nico115] 03/5/2023 08:41

I also have funds to deploy but not yet.If SuZy really was seeing progress with Theormx she would only be too pleased to make Adam inside and show him that progress to appease shareholders who are the owners of the business.This tells you all you need to know imho .

[pinkpudycat] 03/5/2023 08:25

Porky
“That being said, I still think Suzy will get re-elected in June because there is no alternative”

In relation to the above statement I would suggest that if it is broken it needs fixed and as Suzy cannot fix it she should be moved aside, to suggest there is no alternate is not a good reason to keep her as CEO, Adam won’t sit back and let his investment diminish further so will have no viable option but to step in sooner rather than later. Val needs change at the top and it’s better to force that change rather than accept the status quo!

[jasonpugh] 03/5/2023 07:23

@porky.
As an investor making a profit is the goal.
Money does not lose its monetary value if as you say you are on a free ride. Selling 200,000 shares now for £20k and buying later at your estimation of 4p gives you 500,000 for the same £20k. 150% profit. Again, not selling now and going on your freeeeee ride you lose £12k. ((200,000*20p=£20k) to (200,000*4p=£8k))
This free ride concept is nonsense. Profit is profit. My question remains. What knowledgeable investor would keep a share currently valued at 10p and is certain it will be 4p soon and yet does not sell? This is crazy 💋

[porky9] 03/5/2023 05:29

@Jasonpugh
I have a negligible position for crying out loud I'm in for free on. Also, think about it, on practically every raise and lets face it they have done 15 odd of them, so veterans at the game, it will likely be something like:-
40m Placing Shares at 5p to raise £2m plus 10m broker Option Shares at 5p available to EXISTING shareholders for £500k to raise £2.3m after costs. So keeps my hand in IF I decide to support the placing which I'm not interested in unless Adam joins the board.

@Pinkpudycat
You raise a great point, there are many just watching this play out but need proof of concept, done to death with Jam tomorrow and zero delivery. I agree that Suzy has alienated many Shareholders, many totally frustrated especially by her recent attitude about not investing and own family interests and the continued mistakes don't make great reading, but you cant get away from the fact that she is a fantastic scientist and lovely person, very likable but just not hard enough or has sufficient commercial acumen to be a CEO. She needs to head sciences and needs support.

That being said, I still think Suzy will get re-elected in June because there is no alternative. Shareholders are apathetic and will vote the status quo, Adam will do the same, i don't think he will make a move pre fundraise (i could be wrong) more likely he will give her every last opportunity, the AGM IMO will be lacklustre, will be all about the lab and maybe get a small client win to talk about, It will be AFTER the AGM IMO (July) when they will propose the raise and could do it alongside a small acquisition, that's when Adam will make a move but we will know soon enough.

I actually think he could do the job one day a week, its the direction, the strategy, the top line decisions that are important. Just supporting at the critical negotiation stages. He can recruit a good FD and Ops director to execute the general direction.

Anyhow, I would be surprised if Suzy is working a full week, the office is in Nuneaton and the lab is in Nottingham. That's about one and half hour drive in traffic, she wont be doing that. She is full time but most likely working hours to suit, You will probably find she is working from home. The other board members Kevin, Gerry, Martin and Stella will also likely be work from home probably just 3-4 hours a month tops for those on zoom if that.

Anyhow lets see, meanwhile, the two chief rampers over on LSE are still convinced THX will get funded and pay up - that will be the interesting one. I have totally written them off.

[pinkpudycat] 02/5/2023 19:43

Porky, I agree with your synapse, if/when Suzy announces a fund raise Adam will be heavily diluted and will not be a happy bunny, Assuming of course Adam has the availability to take up the position and actually progress the company.

Suzy still has time to produce a rabbit but I don’t believe she has what it takes to “produce the goods”

I have funds available but won’t buy additional shares until something major/tangible happens and I have no doubt there are many others in the same boat.

I am not convinced that Suzy will get re-elected in June, she has alienated many shareholders and Adam may also take the opportunity to move pre fundraise.

[jasonpugh] 02/5/2023 19:40

@porky (i think)
How on earth can anyone with financial common sense not see the logic of selling 200000 shares at 10p and buying 500000 at 4p for the same £20k if your prediction is correct. Let me put it into laymans term porks. If you dont sell yor 200,000 now at 10p then if your prediction is correct snd valirx hits 4p you would of lost £12k! Small change 😳
Roi= -60%. That is dddd investing lol

[porky9] 02/5/2023 18:23

@snooty
AGM is at the end of June and the results to end of December showing the increased cash burn will also need to be published at the same time for approval.

They will need to confirm the meeting date during this month.

Board will get re-elected, they wont rock the boat until after re-election

July/Aug will be when the sparks fly IMO. My call is Adam to force vote in July, gives 28 days notice of same and SH fully back him, takes the position 1/9 - keeping everything crossed that happens.

Will see anyhow...

[porky9] 02/5/2023 18:17

@Jasonpugh
Sorry thought this had been covered off.

I'm not chasing small change on AIM it matters not to me if the placement lands at 4p 5p or 6p. The bit of stock I have left I'm in for free on.

I'm looking for high ROI potential on AIM. As it stands i don't see it with VAL in its current format. I would not buy at 5p at the moment, its not worth it whilst its run the way it is. The risk profile is shocking and they will continue the raise/spend/consolidate path, stock added now will just be diluted to death.

HOWEVER, i am actually hopeful that Adam will take a position and i'm betting on it being from 1/9. Events will unfold, 201 wont happen they will come for a raise at 4p or whatever and at that point Adam will throw his hat in the ring. It will need that event for him to act. It is then that i will likely buy in maybe take a TR position.

Worst case scenario will be if the BOD as it stands hang on in longer, Adam doesn't make a move and we have to wait longer but either way, ultimately i believe Adam will be the CEO.

When that day comes EVERYONE will benefit, shareholders, patients and we have a real chance of getting somewhere.

Lets see what happens.

[sooty snipes] 02/5/2023 17:43

Anyone know when the next AGM is and will Suzy Dilly Dally still have a job after it? Cheers