Vale Int Share Discussion Threads

[hugepants] 05/4/2007 09:02

I largely sold out last year a few months after the finals. Disappointed in the H2 performance. Results look much better this year.

[valhamos] 04/4/2007 23:22

A couple of days after results and there's only half the number of posts compared with the same period following last year's results. Perhaps despite the terrific results interest is waning? Or perhaps some of the regulars like Rainmaker and HugePants are away?

Des - Based on what we know so far, happy with your 2.1p eps for this year. It's difficult to be precise on Camtek's impact less the finance charge on the Fortis Bank loan with the information we have so far; there might be more in the annual report. Certainly expect considerable uplift on broker forecast of 1.82p, which was pre Camtek acquisition anyway, in light of these results.

[guru11] 03/4/2007 14:54

Good results and fundamentals. From looking at the figures mainly due to increased turnover and keeping costs under control. Appears to make the majority of profit in the second half though. Looks like more growth to come.

[deswalker] 03/4/2007 10:43

Wilmdav,

Nice spreadsheets. Must say the 07 earnings forecasts you're using (1.82p eps) look way too conservative to me. Where did you get them from ? If they do 13.5 mill in sales in 07 then surely something comfortably over 2p is possible with 3p in reach for 08. Nonetheless I like conservative forecasts so they'll do for me.

Further improvements in Gross Margins are good. Cashflow a little disappointing but probably to be expected following the acquisitions. The usual flakey EBITDA number and big tax charge (due to Italy).

My target for this year is a PAT of £780k equating to an eps of 2.1p and a current year PE of 8 (as Valhamos says above).

I remain comfortable with my 27p target by this time next year (between nine and ten times a conservative 08 eps estimate of 2.7 - 3p).

Des

[wilmdav] 03/4/2007 09:15

Online bar charts etc updated - looking good. So much for my misgivings.



Crept in with a few more at 15.8p first thing this morning.

[wilmdav] 03/4/2007 07:50

Absolutely agree.

[deswalker] 03/4/2007 07:47

Very happy with the results. This year will see a transformation due to Camtek.

[valhamos] 03/4/2007 07:27

Very impressive. Current year P/E has got to be 8 at most.

[trixter] 03/4/2007 07:08

Looking good!

[deswalker] 02/4/2007 21:14

Hi Wilmdav,

I'm normally a big fan of EBITA/EV yield valuations (prefer to keep at least half the D in for some reason). However, this company isn't the best for this method due to the Italian IRAP tax being presented as a tax on profits in the accounts when it's actually a tax on turnover so my old post of TCFF is probably totally wrong (can't be bothered to go back and check). Even so I still like the company from a fundamentals and global market pov. Hopefully my feelings will be reinforced tomorrow.

Des

[valhamos] 02/4/2007 20:39

Wilmdav

It certainly will be disappointing if eps is much less than the 1.17p forecast. In 2005 eps was 1p with the added benefit in 2006 from a full year contribution from the SMIRTware acquisition. In fact after the interims I suggested here, before the broker upgrade was published, an eps of 1.36p.

I'm not saying I understand the H1/H2 split over the last few years - it seems to have been affected by timing & take-up of new releases and the Italian IRAP tax and now altered by IFRS policy on maintenance contract renewals. However at last year's AGM in June it was said that growth in sales, forecast to be approx 8% would be weighted towards the 2nd half which underlies the belief in a stronger 2nd half performance.

[wilmdav] 02/4/2007 19:36

Ah yes, ErnieElse. I read your excellent Cornishman's post on VIG.

The EV/EBITDA position was a significant factor in my decision to have a nibble regardless of what the prelims might bring.

Management looks very strong from a technical point of view. But the 2002 AMEX listing and delisting the following year for a loss of £789m didn't reflect too well.

Wilmdav

[deswalker] 02/4/2007 15:32

No, I'm not Darron. I lurk over there and post occasionally as ErnieElse but I prefer it here to be honest.

Nice spreadsheets btw and well spotted about the Cashflow discrepancy in H1/04. YoY comparisons are difficult for the reasons mentioned above, but to my mind it is too nice (and annually cash generative) a business to warrant an EV of about £4.6 mill (£5.6 mill minus £1 mill estimated net cash at Dec06 and excluding the two recent acquisitions).

The first acquisition in June looks to be mainly an asset play on the cheap during a tough time in Italy. Hopefully it offers scope for fewer Italian sites and cost savings. I suspect the product's growth potential may be limited and so will be keen to see how it performed in H2. The second acquisition in December is obviously about growth.

Here's hoping your purchase is a timely one.

Des

[wilmdav] 02/4/2007 15:10

Des, are you related to Swalker that posts on these boards or djpreston on TMF?

Wilmdav (DukeofYork on TMF)

[deswalker] 02/4/2007 14:00

Wilmdav,

Your points are well made. Clearly it is a mistake to compare H1 and H2 performances as they have very different profiles in terms of Operating Profit and Working Capital movements (and hence Cashflow). Different accounting conventions, the Italian Tax situation and recent acquisitions do not help when forming a valuation.

But all this aside I think they are cheap.

Rgds,

Des

[rainmaker] 28/3/2007 12:51

Spoke to a Friend who has been in contact with the Company and full year results should(hopefully, they stress) be released next Tuesday ie 3rd April

regards

[rainmaker] 21/3/2007 12:59

Does anyone know exactly when the full year figures are being released?(last year I believe it was 6 April)Noticed there was a flurry of buying activity yesterday!

regards

[rainmaker] 12/3/2007 13:26

Thanks Des-All is clear

regards

[deswalker] 09/3/2007 07:12

RM, to my knowledge the Baronsmead VC trusts have always been managed by ISIS (Ivory & Sime) who were then taken over by F&C a few years ago.