Vale Int Share Discussion Threads

[waldron] 11/11/2021 15:53

FTSE Rises, Miners Gain as Metal Prices Head Higher

11/11/2021 | 02:18pm GMT



Miners Gain as Metal Prices Head Higher

Miners are among the FTSE 100's biggest risers as higher metal prices boost the sector.

Anglo American, Polymetal International, BHP, Glencore, Rio Tinto and Fresnillo all gain as gold increases 0.7% to $1,861.3 an ounce and silver advances 1.1% to $25.04 an ounce, while platinum and base-metal prices also rise.

"Inflation readings seem to be giving gold the strength to rally further, as the metal touches $1,860 for the first time since June," IG analyst Chris Beauchamp says.

"Commodities as a group appear to have further to run now that inflation prints have started picking up again, with no sign as yet that supply has begun to respond meaningfully."

[kipper999] 04/11/2021 18:49

With my RDSB i kept on buying after the Covid drop all the way down to, if i remember correctly, £8.66
My average after all of that was £998. I had a few (reduced) dividends & sold out on the recent rise @ 1,641. The share price carried on to almost £18 (as you know), but i was happy with my locked in profits.
At the time i thought COP26 was going to be a Big Oil bashing event & the share price may well ebb off. All the time watching my paper profits 'melt' away.
Ditto with my BP holding. Also sold off all my HSBC on the recent rise.

I like the 'transition' to renewables story & also the return to shareholders of the Permian Basin sale proceeds. Tho i do not like that being in the form of share buybacks; which enhance EPS & so the salaries of the BoD.

I don't see me entering oil n gas again unless a strong market correction.
Possible, looking at the DOW & FTSE tho.

My ISA portfiolo is now 65% cash, so just 35% invested.

Mining is where i am concentrating my research just now. I know i want to buy Rio, Vale & Ferrexpo as i firmly believe they will rise with commodity prices. The problem, as always, is timing.....

Kipper

[waldron] 04/11/2021 16:59

For me this is a difficult market to make sense of, so certainly i hesitate in offering judgement

Presently i am taking profits where i can and then buying on dips

TAX RESIDENT IN FRANCE WHERE DECEMBER IS TAX YEAR END

we live in strange times

i presently believe once the CAP26 FIASCO subsides we can look towards sanity in the market and an upward trend into the new year

in the meantime i go with luck and wishful thinking with supports and resistences thrown in for good measure

LUV substantial divis and HATE Buybacks

[kipper999] 04/11/2021 16:50

Thanks waldron,
Huge write down in assets followed by a share buyback program
Again, to me, reminiscent of BiG Oil doing the same thing at the start of Covid.

Their commodity, oil, suffered an enormous drop in it's price which hit their share values. Then came the writedowns. Then came the buybacks while the share price was rock bottom
Am thinking mainly of RDSB & BP, but do correct me if i am wrong in all this


Kipper

[kipper999] 04/11/2021 15:47

Still no reason to jump in here. Lower low's & lower high's.
Plus Iron Ore down to $99.35
Big toe might get dipped @ $11

(talking to myself again!!)

[waldron] 04/11/2021 06:25

Stocks to Watch: Miners are making more money than ever before, but are spending little of it on mines. While some are planning to spend more annually in the next few years than they have in half a decade, the capex outlook for the world's "Big 4" miners for 2023 is only about half of the 2013 peak, said Liberum.

"Many management teams of the big miners have neither the mandate from shareholders nor the confidence in the long-term commodity demand growth outlook to engage greenfield investments." Memories of the last commodities bust are also "still very raw and real" for company executives and directors, said Liberum.

[kipper999] 02/11/2021 20:02

.....i find the process very cathartic waldron!

lol...........

[waldron] 02/11/2021 19:50

FANCY TALKING TO YER SELF kip

chuckle and cheers

take care

[kipper999] 02/11/2021 19:45

Am probably talking to myself, as not many folks visit here.
Vale share price was @ $14.86 on 15 October. Now, only 11 trading day's later it stands @ $12.19
That's a huge 18% drop in the value of the company.
At some point these have got to be a fair bet on the eventual resumption of the Iron Ore price & the Chinese recovery.

Last year on 8 Nov('20) the share price stood @ $11.66
The Covid low came in early April of 2020 @ circ$8.20
12 month high has been $23 this last July.

There is also the Brumadinho disaster in 2019 hanging over the company & balance sheet. $7bn in reparations. I see this as akin to the Deep Water Horizon disaster for BP in the GOM.

With all this in mind have decided to set a target of circ$11.50 as a reasonable entry level. Would look to buy 1/3 of my eventual total holding. Then capital remaining to buy again on a drop.
Medium term holding with a plan to, hopefully, sell off in 2022/23

Kipper

[waldron] 29/10/2021 17:45

Kipper

enjoy yer weekend

me, still in oilies with the hope that all will improve once we get passed COP26 AND THEN WISHFULLY thinking of a santa claus rally


hope to collect sone decent divis and gains to fit in nicely with the tax yearend

As mentioned before Vale is not one for my portfolio at this juncture

take care

[kipper999] 29/10/2021 17:38

Ah waldren, how are you?
Still watching very closly here. Wanted to get these results out of the way before making any investment decision.
Am holding off for now, unless i can salt some away med/long term @ $10/$11

It's a reasonable punt at that in my opinion....

Sold all my oil n gas (RDSB & BP), banking HSBC, & am looking at the mining sector with here & Rio.....possibly Ferrexpo

Kipper

[waldron] 29/10/2021 07:00

Vale's Net Income Rises on Higher Iron-Ore Prices


Brazilian mining giant Vale SA's profit rose in the third quarter from a year earlier as the price of iron ore jumped.

[waldron] 06/10/2021 16:01

SEEMS TO HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL DIVIDEND

THE ONLY DOUBT I HAVE CENTRES ON THE DAM PROBLEM IF ANY GOING FORWARD

WHAT EVER YOU DECIDE

GOOD LUCK AND TAKE CARE

CHUCKLE AND CHEERS

[kipper999] 06/10/2021 16:00

Thank's for that. Looking at the dividend payments (source DividendMax)they appear to pay Special's every so often. This is what is, in a way, skewing the yield % i think.
Will certainly do some more digging around as the risk has got to be mitigated by that drop of 60%....

[waldron] 06/10/2021 15:58

Summary

The company has strong fundamentals. More than 70% of companies have a lower mix of growth, profitability, debt and visibility.

The company has a good ESG score relative to its sector, according to Refinitiv.

Strengths

The company's EBITDA/Sales ratio is relatively high and results in high margins before depreciation, amortization and taxes.

The group's activity appears highly profitable thanks to its outperforming net margins.

Thanks to a sound financial situation, the firm has significant leeway for investment.

The equity is one of the most attractive in the market with regard to earnings multiple-based valuation.

With regards to fundamentals, the enterprise value to sales ratio is at 6.29 for the current period. Therefore, the company is undervalued.

The company has a low valuation given the cash flows generated by its activity.

This company will be of major interest to investors in search of a high dividend stock.

Over the last twelve months, the sales forecast has been frequently revised upwards.

For the last twelve months, analysts have been gradually revising upwards their EPS forecast for the upcoming fiscal year.

Analysts have a positive opinion on this stock. Average consensus recommends overweighting or purchasing the stock.

The average target price set by analysts covering the stock is above current prices and offers a tremendous appreciation potential.

Weaknesses

As estimated by analysts, this group is among those businesses with the lowest growth prospects.

Over the past four months, analysts' average price target has been revised downwards significantly.

The average consensus view of analysts covering the stock has deteriorated over the past four months.

Over the past twelve months, analysts' opinions have been revised negatively.
Sales estimates for the next fiscal years vary from one analyst to another.

This clearly highlights a lack of visibility into the company's future activity.

The price targets of analysts who cover the stock differ significantly. This implies difficulties in evaluating the company and its business.

[kipper999] 06/10/2021 15:34

waldron, (not many folks comment on Vale except you)
Vale has done nothing but drop since XD on 24 June last. share price then was $22.80
Year low is $10.38 circ 25 Oct '20. Annual dividend of $2.70; giving a staggering 20% return (if held constant)
At some point these have got to be a reasonable 'punt' (risk/reward).
SP today at $13.51; off 60% from the $22.80

I guess it's a call on the return to past levels of the Chinese market &/or on the price of iron ore.
But, as with Brent last year, which dropped to -$20 levels, dragging Big Oil with it, is now a similar golden oppertunity to look at miners given the iron ore price?