Upland Resources Share Discussion Threads

[zengas] 09/3/2018 09:11

They haven't even drawn on the £3.5m facility and already some are having issues.

First of all they have £3m cash. Wick to dry hole is £2.25m. Even with a further cost overrun they should be ok on the original £3m.

If it comes in, who is going to grumble if we raise further money given it could be worth over $200m net. The well is Q3 so doubt we'll need anything that soon.

My guess is a possible farm in/tie up on a discovery/possible production ready field perhaps in Sarawak ? This would underpin the floor for drawdown imo.

Out of interest haven't heard any mention of Hardstoft and a well was previously mentioned at a cost of $500k (£350k) for 2018 net to UPL - but if there was cash coming in from a production asset it would also finance this project.
We still have just over 1 mmbo net 2C (awaiting development) which if transferred to 2P would be worth at least two thirds of our current £12m m/cap.
On top of that there is an additional best case potential upside of 12.9 mmboe net to UPL ($150m target value ?). Planning delays may be the issue.

Further, it's not unheard off to refinance the loan notes come June 30th 2020.
It's been an excellent deal without diluting shareholders at this stage.

[soulsauce] 09/3/2018 08:44

LW425 of course there could be some worst case scenario, this is share investing after all.

But do you think if they had raised all that money on the market this week from one of the usual bucket shops that they would have got anywhere near your floor of 2.5p err no.
In fact before recovery on Tuesday, caused IMO because of the news that dropped yesterday, the bid had dropped back to 2p and I doubt the company would have got shares away at any better than 1.8p.

Furthermore do you think given the excellent BoD, the forthcoming Wick drill and possibility of further assets that this is going to fall much from here.

And if your worst case scenario happened and there was a problem do you want a situation where the company can't access that money?

Please credit where it's due. No raising of funds is perfect but this is pretty damn close.

[kemche] 09/3/2018 08:11

"Worse case is still wipe out of course if for some unknown reason the share price crashed."

There is that.

Or a meteor.


Sheesh!

[lw425] 09/3/2018 08:05

The only issue I have with the RNS yesterday is there is no lower floor for conversion.

If the share price slips back, together with the 10% discount one could easily see the loan notes converted at 1.75p.

Worse case is still wipe out of course if for some unknown reason the share price crashed.

I wish they had set a floor at 2.5p but no they have not.

[thejaba] 08/3/2018 21:39

Thanks Sull. Makes v good reading.

[1bluehorseshoe] 08/3/2018 21:37

Dr Staley is also a Non Exec Director of 88e, it's primary play being icewine in Alaska. Purely designed to be sold to a major once proven. He was brought in, no guessing required for what purpose.

[zengas] 08/3/2018 21:34

euclid don't disagree with you on that at all. I expect more deals of similar sized potential. Sull i'm sure as Craven says, they have all known each other for many years and who knows what's run by consultants from time to time.

[sull75] 08/3/2018 21:19

Zengas, thanks for pointing out Tommy O Gorman and Gerard Walsh's current venture earlier in the year. I see John Craven is also involved there as well. One to keep an eye on. Do you think they would link up with Dr Staley again at some point ?

[soulsauce] 08/3/2018 21:16

Great research thanks Zengas.

[zengas] 08/3/2018 21:08

If you read the above about "Within a month, Tommy O'Gorman and Gerard Walsh, two of what Craven fondly calls Ireland's "serial resource addicts" wanted to talk to him".

Tommy O'Gorman turned a pound into 8.8m euros and made over £14m.


Those are the two guys who got Craven and Co to form Cove out of Lapp Platts. S.Staley was regarded as one of the best consultants brought into Cove.

Gerard Walsh is in UPL from ipo with 4,506,824 shares.

Like Tune, not here for pennies.

[soulsauce] 08/3/2018 21:02

Ahh yes that was the one Windjammer, it's all coming back now. I remember drilling results of several hundred metres of gas pay. If only I had been more savvy as to valuations in those days.

Anyway I am more savvy now and with help from Spangle, Zengas and others we are in capable hands. Just ignore the noise when it arrives.

[euclid5] 08/3/2018 20:57

Zengas, I calculated UPL's Wick at around 60p Npv/ share based on 250mmbls P50 OIP x 30% RF x 40% wi x $11boe - approx £235m on 457m shares

[sull75] 08/3/2018 20:26

Jaba, have a read of this about Cove, it explains everything you need to know and even Dr Staley gets a mention. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cove_Energy_plc

[soulsauce] 08/3/2018 20:06

Argyle I was late to the party and sold too early at Cove but I still did ok.

Here I am in on the ground floor and hopefully I will find a much more opportune departure point.

When I knew SS was running this it was a no brainer but the connections he has this time are even better.

;-)

[argyle underclap] 08/3/2018 19:47

Soulsauce - congrats on being in Cove. Just reading the old thread. Many similarities here re roadmap for success

[thejaba] 08/3/2018 19:07

Anyone know the thread or ticker (old) for Cove Energy. Think it's worth reading that to see potentially where UPL could end up.

[1bluehorseshoe] 08/3/2018 17:34

Nope. When it's sold the true value will show. Investment is like a kite and the tail is the share price Check out Cove and no doubt 88e will be the same. Buy em forget em. GL

[tyler90] 08/3/2018 17:20

Not interested in the SP??

[1bluehorseshoe] 08/3/2018 17:08

Not interested in herds or traders or the share price here, it's glaringly obvious this is being built for acquisition. Can't wait to see the assets unfold especially in Malaysia

[yogaboy] 08/3/2018 16:38

Today's news only confirms this is the most exciting share to be in at the moment. The available funds are not going to sit around as "working capital" - every step this BOD takes reassures me that my money is well invested here.

[soulsauce] 08/3/2018 16:10

Just have to wait for the new assets now, today's news tells me we are much closer and again I don't think today's news has anything to do with Wick as much as the RNS mentions wick being the principal asset. Yes it is.......at the moment ;-)

[argyle underclap] 08/3/2018 15:57

Tyler - the 6month lock in too paints the picture crystal clear for all to see.

[tyler90] 08/3/2018 15:43

Those having doubts about the CLN are missing the point about who the debt holders are. Under the typical "death spiral" scenario, the holder of the convertible debt initially shorts the issuer's common stock, which often causes the stock price to decline, making it unattractive to new investors.In this case it is not in the interests of the Chairman, Tune Gp and Optiva to see the share price to fall and I cannot see them shorting the stock.