Up Global Sourcing Share Discussion Threads

[onjohn] 11/2/2019 14:18

Broker ups forecasts
In a note to clients, analysts at ‘house’ broker Shore Capital pointed out that the firm issued “a strong trading update, … confirming the momentum reported in its surprise post-Christmas update (7th January) has continued.”

They added: “With EBITDA guided to be ‘above’ current market expectation, we are again raising our EBITDA forecast by 10% to £8.6m, which takes CPTP to £7.2m and EPS to 6.9p, an 11% EPS upgrade on recently raised expectations.”

The analysts concluded: “With very strong trading momentum, a broadening customer base and an attractive multi-pillared growth strategy a July FY2019 PER of 8.4x, falling to 8.0x appears very undemanding.”

[quepassa] 11/2/2019 13:40

hey, muzzie, don't expect me to engage with someone of your ilk.


250p to 63p based on woefully missed management sales forecasts, that says it all.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[muzmanoz] 11/2/2019 13:25

Que Passa, the Company ends the statement saying that "in the longer term, the Board is confident in the adaptability and resilience of the Group's business model, as evidenced by the strong recovery in trading in H1 FY19 despite a challenging consumer and retail market." Not sure what statement you are reading

the statement mentions chinese new year (not "lunar" as you mention) to highlight that revenues have been brought forward into H1 for ease of comparison with prior year.

The company has mentioned previously that it has hedged its sterling exposure as far as possible but the nature of its business is low margin.

Clearly this share is not for you. Not sure why you need to keep repeating that or making your snide exaggerations.

[quepassa] 11/2/2019 13:13

Everything thrown into today's dogs' dinner of a Trading Update.

......including one-offs associated with the Chinese New Lunar Year!!!!!


This is a very concerning statement to end their Update on and underlines just how twitchy and volatile this business is rather than broad-based and stable:-

"The Group continues to assess the implications of a 'no-deal' Brexit and the potential impact on volumes and margins if it led to a material devaluation in Sterling."


This is such a thin-margin business that sterling devaluation has the potential in my view to toast them -and investors- faster than any of their kitchen appliances ever could.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[muzmanoz] 11/2/2019 12:59

Yes, quepassa, you've made these comments before. Not sure why you keep making them about a share you don't own. Are we supposed to thank you for this home spun advice? Its not like there's been issues in the retail sector in general is it? Hardly think this is the only company making brexit caveats. Dislike people who make comments and then put caveats like imo, dyor.

[quepassa] 11/2/2019 12:39

This share price performance since the disastrous post-IPO sales forecast miss has been truly atrocious.

this share price has slumped from its peak of 250p to the current 63p.

That's almost 75% down from its peak .

The thing is that if the management got their forecasts so badly wrong once, you have to ask yourself if they can do it again. Are they to be trusted?

Personally, I found today's update full of unnerving caveats about Brexit. It was by no means a straightforward statement.

I treat this share and this management with a great deal of distrust.

Whilst UPGS has enjoyed a recent bounce, it remains woefully down on its peak price and its IPO price.

This is in my opinion an extremely volatile and risky share with a management team which has a track-record of disappointing by badly missing its own sales forecasts.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[pre] 11/2/2019 12:12

strange how there is no sight of the regular doom and gloom posters here now...well done to UPGS management:-)

[ramellous] 11/2/2019 11:31

Clickable link

[kevph] 11/2/2019 11:06

If you have access to stockopedia. This is a good read posted last night from someone who went on the site visit.
hxxps://www.stockopedia.com/content/more-upgside-445748/

[kirk 6] 11/2/2019 10:09

If we get a Brexit deal then these will smash all time highsGreat growth company

[ny boy] 11/2/2019 09:57

Pays to stay patient, very good progress, will check back later in the year.
Hopefully a good year with (STX) as well

[onjohn] 11/2/2019 09:12

love it when you talk like that topper

[topvest] 11/2/2019 09:06

P/E of less than 10 and dividend yield in excess of 5% is good value. Could double from here. The joys of EARNINGS UPGRADES and RERATING from a bombed out stock to a growth stock to enjoy!

[topvest] 11/2/2019 09:01

First step is to get back to the IPO price I guess, but should be rated as a growth stock.

[cheshire man] 11/2/2019 08:14

Equity Development
‏

@equity_research
11m11 minutes ago
More
#UPGS @UPGS_UK 6% yield (dividend still 2x covered) and PE of 8.3x when combined with a second upgrade in quick succession means recovery is back on track and price looks extremely attractive.

[kirk 6] 11/2/2019 08:03

Should get well over £1 before end of March

[edmonda] 11/2/2019 08:03

upgraded numbers from equity developed in the link.

[ianio5691] 11/2/2019 07:56

Wow. Great set of results.
As you already point out Topvest, International growth is fantastic, and has the potential to be the gamechanger here.

Can see the re-testing the highs in the not too distant future.

Cracking share.

[kevph] 11/2/2019 07:53

Agreed. Makes the business a European play reducing exposure to the UK at a sensitive time.

[topvest] 11/2/2019 07:46

This has to be the main positive:
International business continues to grow and accounted for 40% of the Group's revenue in H1 FY19 (H1 FY18: 20%)
That's £26m of revenue!

[topvest] 11/2/2019 07:43

Yes, a very strong performance. Also, good that they are pointing out any one-off boosts to H1 numbers, and referring to the underlying growth. Its all very positive with Kleeneze due to launch soon as well.

[kirk 6] 11/2/2019 07:19

Great numbers is a hostile climate ! What a share !!!-- International business continues to grow and accounted for 40% of the Group's revenue in H1 FY19 (H1 FY18: 20%)

[cheshire man] 11/2/2019 07:07

Favourite words,,,,,,,Above market's expectations :-)

As a result, and notwithstanding the higher overhead costs associated with servicing the increased revenue and the investment in the growth of the international business, the Group now anticipates that its EBITDA performance in FY19 will be above the market's current expectations.

[kirk 6] 10/2/2019 20:49

Roll on tomorrow let's hope !

[tallprawn] 09/2/2019 13:03

SCSW have added this to their growth portfolio in this months edition - We should see a big spike here on Monday morning providing the outlook statement for the rest of the year in Monday's update is as positive as expected.