Triple Point Social Hous... Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 22/4/2020 13:37

steer clear

[badtime] 22/4/2020 11:57

Variation on words ..share with us your wisdom of why oh great one

[quepassa] 22/4/2020 11:46

terrible investment

[badtime] 22/4/2020 11:34

Enlightening and in depth

[quepassa] 22/4/2020 10:59

this is a bad investment

[rik shaw] 17/4/2020 14:42

Tipped by Questor in the Telegraph this morning.

[badtime] 17/4/2020 13:31

Bought in yesterday with a small amount

[badtime] 16/4/2020 20:49

Someone dumped 300k

[rik shaw] 14/4/2020 12:56

Once full dividend cover is achieved these really ought to rerate. Government backed inflation linked revenue (not dissimilar to PHP or AGR), paying around 5.7% dividend and yet trading around 13% below NAV.

[davebowler] 14/4/2020 09:06

Liberum;
Full rent collection in Q1

Mkt Cap £313m | Prem/(disc) -15.3% | Div yield 5.7%

Event

Triple Point Social Housing REIT received 98% of Q1 rents by 31 March 2020, with the remainder expected in the coming days. The leases are subject to annual index-linked reviews. 54% of the annual increases are applied in April.

A small proportion of the portfolio is being forward funded. Seven schemes are currently in progress with £13.3m spent to date (3% of portfolio value). The remaining capital committed to the schemes is £10.7m and there may be some delay in completing the projects as construction activity has slowed.

In terms of balance sheet strength, LTV remained unchanged in Q1 at 31%. The interest cover ratio is 488% and the debt has an average remaining term to maturity of 5.3 years.

Liberum view

Cash flows from the supported housing sector are particularly attractive given the long-term, government-backed revenue streams. Supported housing results in improved outcomes for tenants and significant cost saving for local authorities. Triple Point has a strong balance sheet and the near-term focus is on deploying the remaining capital to achieve full dividend cover (0.67x in 2019). The board expects full dividend cover by Q3 2020.

[badtime] 30/3/2020 10:39

I take it you hold.Catching the bottom of the dip would have been nice

[davebowler] 30/3/2020 10:06

The share prices of the social housing funds, Civitas Social Housing (CSH) and Triple Point Social Housing Reit (SOHO), were creeping back towards premium territory at the start of the year. Now both sit on substantial discounts of 16% and attractive yields of 6%. This is puzzling because both trusts have some of the most predictable revenues of any I can think.

To revisit the investment case which I made a year ago about SOHO, people with special needs need specialist accommodation adapted to their requirements. CSH and SOHO provide this and their rents are paid by local authorities using funds provided by central government. Demand for the properties exceeds supply and much of the rental income rises with inflation.

Civitas had one small problem with a housing association renting its properties back in 2018 that cost it about £300,000. This compares to a rent roll of £46.5m at the end of September 2019, which is higher today.

[davebowler] 12/2/2020 08:47

Supported living property REIT like this is trading at a discount to NAV yet look atPHP!According to Liberum, its on a 44% premium! -... PHP's FY19 EPRA NAV is in line with our expectations, increasing 2.7% y/y to 107.9p, largely driven by rental growth. The portfolio net initial yield pushed out slightly to 4.86%, but this reflects additional investment in Ireland. Yields in the UK remained flat. EPRA EPS increased by 5.8% y/y to 5.5p and the dividend increased by 3.7% y/y to 5.6p, both in line. Annualised rental growth continues to improve, and continues to accelerate. LTV reduced 360bps to 44.2% following the Sep 2019 fundraise, and group cost of debt is lower by 50bps since the March 2019 merger thanks to refinancing activities, now 3.5%. The benefits of scale mean PHP now has one of the lowest EPRA cost ratios in the sector, at 12.0%. We expect PHP's portfolio to continue to benefit from long-term structural growth, driven by a growing and ageing population and a UK GP estate that is increasingly unfit for purpose. The shares currently trade at a 44% premium to CY20E NAV, with a P/E of 27.7x and DPS yield of 3.6%.

[davebowler] 01/10/2019 14:52

Liberum;
Social Housing REITs - Civitas Social Housing & Triple Point Social Housing

Regulatory update on Westmoreland

CSH: Mkt Cap £539m | Prem/(disc) -18.2% | Div yield 6.1%

SOHO: Mkt Cap £329m | Prem/(disc) -8.7%% | Div yield 5.4%

Event

The Regulator of Social Housing (RSH) has published an updated regulatory judgment on Westmoreland Supported Housing, reducing the company's governance rating from G3 to G4. The financial viability rating is unchanged at V3. Westmoreland was previously given a non-compliant rating for governance (G3) and financial viability (V3) in November 2018.

Registered Providers (including housing associations), with fewer than 1,000 social housing units under management which then pass through the 1,000 unit threshold will be the subject of a detailed in-depth assessment (IDA). The IDA assesses the Registered Provider's compliance with the requirements of the Governance and Financial Viability Standard. The results are published in a formal grading (V 1-4 for Viability and G 1-4 for Governance).

Westmoreland has engaged with the RSH since the initial regulatory judgement and the regulator has noted that progress has been made across a number of areas. New independent board members were appointed in H1 2019.

In July 2019, creditor action was taken against Westmoreland which has been disputed by Westmoreland and was subsequently withdrawn. The creditor action related to a dispute on specific properties. This action triggered a regulatory process that has resulted in three new board members being appointed to Westmoreland's board. This is defined as a statutory intervention from the RSH which has resulted in a downgrade in the governance rating, in line with their procedures.

Liberum view

The creditor action is believed to be an isolated incident and does not relate to any properties owned by Civitas or Triple Point. Westmoreland leases 15 properties from Triple Point (4.7% of NAV). Civitas' exposure to Westmoreland has fallen significantly over the past six months. Westmoreland accounts for 11.2% of the portfolio rental income now, compared to 19.7% at 31 March 2019. We understand some of the leases have been moved to other housing associations.

In the initial regulatory judgement from November 2018, the RSH noted that Westmoreland was reliant on continued financial support from a third party. The third party has confirmed its commitment to Westmoreland. We note Westmoreland's accounts for the year to 30 September 2018 show a £3.5m loan from Fairhome Group plc to the company. Fairhome Group is a developer of supported living properties. The loan appears to be on favourable terms as no interest has been charged in Westmoreland's 2018 accounts. Fairhome Group has stated in its accounts to 31 July 2018 that it only expects £0.8m of the loan to be repaid. At that point the drawn amount on the loan was £2.5m. A further £1m was drawn in the two months to 30 September 2018.

The RSH has been working with the housing associations in the supported housing sector that were given non-compliant ratings in order to strengthen governance and improve risk management strategies. We note the comment from Civitas that it expects Westmoreland's rating to change in the future. This would be positive for sentiment towards the sector as the publication of the regulatory judgements in H2 2018 were the initial catalyst for the sell-off in the sector

[rik shaw] 19/9/2019 07:49

Tipped by Questor in the Telegraph today

[davebowler] 11/9/2019 16:10

RNS 6 Sept

Chris Phillips, Chairman of Triple Point Social Housing REIT plc, commented:

"Looking back over the past six months, and forward over the next six months, there is much to be pleased about. As expected, our existing portfolio has performed well and we have continued to deploy funds into high-quality assets leased to Approved Providers which continue to strengthen as a result of ongoing regulatory engagement. Commissioners continue to call for new housing, as reflected in our pipeline of close to GBP400 million. We continue to refine and evolve our due diligence processes and we have never failed to receive rental payments in full under our leases. For all these reasons, and despite movements in the Company's share price, our continued operational performance makes us look to the future with optimism."

[phillkay] 07/9/2019 22:26

Can you help me understand why, when positive results came out (I think?), there was more than 7m shares sold on Friday, (much much more than bought in any case), yet the price went up? I haven't invested at the moment as I'm trying to understand various scenarios, but this one has confused me, so thought I'd ask. Thanks

[davebowler] 09/5/2019 10:15

Liberum;
Social Housing REITs

Non-compliant judgement on Bespoke Supportive Tenancies

Mkt Cap Triple Point £334m Civitas £550m | Prem/(disc) Triple Point -7.2% Civitas -17.0% | Div yield Triple Point 5.4% Civitas 6.0%

Event

Bespoke Supportive Tenancies is the latest registered provider to be found non-compliant by The Regulator of Social Housing. Bespoke Supportive Tenancies accounted for 11.5% of Civitas' NAV and 1.6% of Triple Point Social Housing REIT's rental income. Civitas has confirmed that Bespoke Supportive Tenancies is fully up to date with lease payments and the regulatory announcement is expected to have no impact on the company's portfolio.

The regulator's review has found that Bespoke Supportive Tenancies is non-compliant with the governance and viability standards. The registered provider is working with the regulator to resolve the issues. It has not received a formal grading as it owns less than 1,000 homes.

Echoing recent regulatory judgments, the regulator stated it received inadequate assurance over Bespoke Supportive Tenancies' risk management framework. Like most of the registered providers in this sector, it has agreed long-term index-linked leases. The regulator describes the underlying financial profile as weak and it lacks capacity to manage downside risk should it materialise. The regulator believes some downside risk has occurred and the reported aggregated rental income is lower than the lease cost. Bespoke Supportive Tenancies can currently only continue to meet its lease obligations through continuation of growth, third party support, and the use of pooled service charge income. The long-term viability of Bespoke is reliant on the rent meeting the criteria for specialised supported housing. The regulator also lacks assurance on how the board has satisfied itself that it is meeting these requirements.

Liberum view

The judgement on Bespoke Supportive Tenancies repeats concerns raised by the regulator in its recent report on the specialised support housing (SSH) sector. Many of these relate to the viability of business models of lease-based registered providers. Five registered providers in the SSH sector have been declared non-compliant. In total, these represent approximately 50% of Civitas' NAV and 30% of Triple Point's NAV.

The regulator's report led to a de-rating in the sector and the REITs now trade at discounts of -17.0% (Civitas) and -7.2% (Triple Point), respectively. Civitas has undertaken a number of initiatives recently in order to improve its share rating. The management fee is now calculated on IFRS NAV rather than portfolio NAV. We also note the target dividend for FY2020 (March period end) represents a 4.3% increase on FY2019.

[davebowler] 22/1/2019 09:15

Liberum;
Mkt Cap £152m | Prem/(disc) -15.3% | Div yield 3.4%

Event

Residential Secure Income has entered into a housing investment partnership agreement with Morgan Sindall Investments. The agreement aims to increase the supply of shared ownership homes. The partnership is targeting the delivery of 1,500 shares ownership homes with a value of up to £300m.

Residential Secure Income made its first investment in shares ownership properties in October with a £16.5m portfolio acquisition from Crest Nicholson. The company will invest through the partnership using debt proceeds secured against its £240m portfolio.

Liberum view

The timing of the expected investment through the partnership is unclear from today's announcement. We estimate the company needs to deploy another £100m of capital in order to achieve the targeted 50% LTV ratio. RESI has made steady progress on acquisitions in 2018 following a slow start in the period after launch. The discount differential to the peer group looks too wide in our view (-15.3% discount compared to 0.8% average premium for Civitas and Triple Point).

[davebowler] 06/9/2018 15:11

Liberum;
Potential equity issue

Event

Triple Point Social Housing REIT has agreed a further £6.2m of acquisitions comprising six supported housing properties and a forward funding scheme. The company expects to have invested or committed the proceeds of its recent debt raise by the end of October and intends to raise further equity in the near-term. A prospectus is expected to be published in mid-September.

The stock trades on a 7.6% premium to NAV in comparison to an average -1.7% discount for social housing peers.

[davebowler] 27/7/2018 12:05

Cannacord;
Earlier this week, SOHO.L made a couple of announcements, a further acquisition of a £15.2m portfolio, and the agreement of a £68.5m two tranche loan.



Acquisition.

The Board of Triple Point Social Housing REIT plc (tickers: SOHO; SOHC) is pleased to announce that the Group has completed the acquisition of 11 supported housing properties comprising 74 units in total, for an aggregate consideration of £15.2 million (excluding costs). The properties are located in Greater London (56 units) and the Midlands (18 units).



The Group has entered into new FRI leases in respect of the properties for a minimum period of 20 years, with the ability to extend to 25 years (22 years for one property), with specialist housing associations, Chrysalis Supported Association, Encircle and Inclusion Housing. These housing associations are regulated by the Regulator of Social Housing.



The rents received under the leases are subject to annual, upward-only rent reviews, increasing in line with the Consumer Prices Index and will generate net initial yields in line with the Company's investment criteria and returns profile.



The properties comprise specialist, high quality homes refurbished for individuals with mental health and other support and care needs.



Fixed Rate Loan

The Group has entered into a long dated, fixed rate, interest only financing arrangement in the form of a private placement of loan notes in an amount of £68.5 million with a US life insurance company (the "Loan Notes").



The Loan Notes are secured against a portfolio of specialist supported living assets throughout the UK, worth approximately £172 million, acquired in the period from admission in August 2017 to the end of March 2018. The amounts which have been drawn down under the Loan Notes are segregated and non-recourse to the Company.



The Loan Notes are split into two tranches: Tranche-A, in an amount of £41.5 million, has a term of 10 years from utilisation and is priced at an all-in coupon of 2.924%; and Tranche-B, in an amount of £27 million, has a term of 15 years from utilisation and is priced at an all-in coupon of 3.215%. On a blended basis, the weighted average term is 12 years carrying a weighted average fixed rate coupon of 3.039%.



The Loan Notes represent a loan-to-value ("LTV") of 40% of the value of the secured assets referred to above, which is in line with the Company's investment policy and long term debt strategy of securing low LTV, long dated debt to capitalise on the low interest rate environment in order to enhance shareholder returns.



The Loan Notes are the first of a planned debt funding programme designed to support the Company's continued growth. Triple Point Investment Management LLP, the Company's Delegated Investment Manager, intends to utilise the proceeds of the Loan Notes to fund an extensive pipeline of further acquisitions over the next three to five months.



In accordance with its investment policy, the Company will maintain a prudent level of gearing, targeting a level of aggregate borrowings of 40% of the Group's gross asset value, subject to an absolute maximum of 50% of the Group's gross asset value (calculated at the time of draw down).



Once fully invested the Company will have a gross asset value of circa £315m (comprising the £200m IPO proceeds, £47.4m C share proceeds, and the £68.5m loans).



In summary, the REIT enjoys:



100% ownership of the properties
Target 5% dividend yield rising with inflation: Income is secured through long-dated inflation-linked leases
All leases are Fully Repairing and Insuring – all operating and maintenance risk lies with the RP(Registered Provider eg Housing Association)
Crucially, there is NO exposure to the provision of care, which is provided separately by a specialist 3rd party care provider
Regulatory protection: REIT income is government backed by central government, fully regulated under 2014 Care Act
Positive Social Impact through the provision of secure long term accommodation for vulnerable tenants

[davebowler] 31/5/2018 10:02

According to Cannacord it was confirmed last night that SOHO will be entering the FTSE AllShare in June.