Trafficmaster Share Discussion Threads

[gerdmuller] 07/5/2010 10:33

GBP now down over 2 percent against the USD. TFC still getting cheaper.

[gerdmuller] 07/5/2010 09:27

Well if it is a US bid then TFC is getting cheaper by the day.

My IG screen showing just $1.47 to 1.00 GBP.

[mallorca 90] 06/5/2010 15:47

Oh I see.Do you agree with their opinion?

[restassured] 06/5/2010 15:45

No ,Panmure Gordon think so.

[mallorca 90] 06/5/2010 15:43

Do you really think so?

[restassured] 06/5/2010 14:41

Thanks.Agree that the share price will get here on its own steam as the year progresses.

Consensus forecasts are pretax profits £7.5 million this year, rising to £9.10 million in 2011.

Panmure's forecast is for pretax profits of £8.3 million EPS 5.37 this year,rising to £10.6 million EPS 6.86 in 2011

Based on those numbers and rates of growth, it is clear why Panmure Gordon think 80p is both reasonable and attainable.

[gerdmuller] 06/5/2010 14:08

restassured,

The Vega bid was about a week after management spoke of talks.

DMATEK had a bid by LMS pulled and the next day management said others were interested but the formal offer did not come for a month.

On both occasions the companies were worth buying after the bid talk had been released as they still offered good medium term value.

I have still been buying TFC this week as I think even without a bid they will reach this level again this year.

[restassured] 06/5/2010 13:35

Wholeheartedly agree :-)


The AGM is on May 20th and they usually issue a trading statement on that day.

[and1] 06/5/2010 13:04

on the plus side if the bidding company was not a serious company or if the bid ask share price difference was too big there would already have been an announcement

[restassured] 06/5/2010 11:45

I don't think it is suprising as the press have shown little interest in this co,hence the languishing share price.
The press are only interested in what they predicted.

Presumably TFC are locked deep in secretive takeover talks.

We will suddenly get an announcement either way.

With a NAV approaching 30p a share,it will be hard for the board to justify anything below the 70p/80p level.


Gerd how long on average was the announcment after the initial approaches of your other two cos?

[and1] 06/5/2010 11:34

am surprised that there is not even speculation in the press about possible suitors or fair takeover share price. Also no leaks or rumours whatsover. just gone dead.

[mallorca 90] 06/5/2010 10:55

restassured

After you recent statement about RAY that there would be no higher bid (shares rose 60% next day on higher bid news)I do not really think that many on the boards pay much attention to what you say.

[restassured] 05/5/2010 15:45

It could also be KKR... It is possible TFC want to massively capitalise on the FMS acquisition which already has a footprint in 75 countries.FMS is clearly highly scaleable.To be part of a much larger group with massive financing capabilities would make alot of sense............



Tim Coleman - Group Finance Director, Trafficmaster Plc.

Tim joined Trafficmaster in September 2008. Having qualified as a Chartered Accountant with Price Waterhouse in 1990, Tim has held a number of senior financial roles with telecoms and software companies, including BT, MFS Communications and PacketVideo. Since 2003 he was at Northgate Information Solutions plc, the international software, outsourcing and information technology services company which was taken private by Kohlberg Kravis Roberts in March this year. Tim held several roles within Northgate through a period of unprecedented growth, and was most recently UK Finance Director. While at Northgate Tim gained significant M&A experience and was closely involved with financing, acquiring and integrating numerous acquisitions.

[gerdmuller] 05/5/2010 13:42

Normal problem though of mms widening spread.

[sdavis] 05/5/2010 12:14

Agreed: bid premium now almost gone. Worth a punt at these levels.

[gerdmuller] 05/5/2010 11:49

Not much further and it will be back to the level pre-announcement.

I have had large holdings of VEGA and DTK taken out in the past 18 months. Both presented massive buying opportunities after talks had been announced with limited downside risk.

If no takeover occurs for TFC the present level is still easily achievable in the near term.

[gerdmuller] 04/5/2010 11:52

Last year the average pbit multiple for UK PE-backed buy-outs was 12.7 for deals over £100m. That would give a price of 80p per share (pbit £6.6m) for TFC and a market value of about £108m. That is the guideline management should be looking at and aiming to get for us. Anything else undervalues the company.

There is just no need to sell this company too cheaply as it is now doing very well.

[restassured] 04/5/2010 11:25

market maker dealings only

[samsingh] 04/5/2010 11:24

whats the RNS about rest

[lfc4ever] 04/5/2010 10:23

what we really want is a bidding war- it can happen, even to a debt ridden case like raymarine!

[restassured] 04/5/2010 10:23

One of the justifications given for the Cybit bid, was that it equated to the highest share price attained by the co for over 5 years.


For TFC that would be 72p.

[sdavis] 04/5/2010 10:20

Agreed rest. 100% premium to the share price of a few weeks ago seems fair. In line with CYH.

[restassured] 04/5/2010 10:08

The high over the last four years was 72p.I think with economic recovery in place and Trafficmaster in a much stronger position, it will be hard for the directors of TFC to justify recommending anything less than that.

Net asset value alone is around 30p

I think it will be one of the following


Francisco partners
Ryder
Trimble navigation
Navteq
Navman
TomTom
Garmin

[and1] 04/5/2010 09:51

still trading at around 50% premium to average of last years share price. so nobody has a clue. based on current price market seems to guess that bid is at around 50p.
based on the number of share options exercisable by directors above current price, there are quite a few exercisable at around 53p, some at 66p and some at 83p. I reckon the directors are trying for at least 55-60p. who knows!

[carver66] 04/5/2010 04:07

80p will do me!