Tr European Growth Share Discussion Threads

[indieman] 11/5/2005 12:57

The recent decline in consumer confidence in UK/Europe suggests rates in the UK at least have topped already.

[keyboard] 11/5/2005 12:16

That's plausuble, Indie.

As I said earlier, TRG has been driven higher over the past twelve months by the strength of the euro and the further the euro
declines, the more TRG will drop. And if, as some predict, the BoE raises interest rates here in the next few months, sterling could strengthen further
vis-vis the euro which may mean even more downside for TRG!

[indieman] 05/5/2005 06:15

From Yesterday's Telegraph:-

Stagflation fears beginning to stalk eurozone
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (Filed: 04/05/2005)


Fears of stagflation cast a pall over the eurozone yesterday as fresh data pointed to the double curse of rising unemployment and inflation.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said inflation had edged up to 2.2pc across the 12-nation bloc, reaching levels that are starting to unsettle economists. At the same time, the EU's Eurostat data office reported that the eurozone's jobless rate rose from 8.8pc to 8.9pc in March. Unemployment for those under 25 was 19.2pc.

The latest figures follow a shock decline in the eurozone's PMI manufacturing index released on Monday, which dropped through the 50 level usually seen as a recession indicator. Business confidence has tumbled in Germany, France and Italy.

Eric Chaney, an economist at Morgan Stanley, said the eurozone was now flirting with a dreaded "triple-dip" recession, citing a disturbing build-up of inventory and a "sharp deterioration" in overall economic conditions in France and Italy.

Inflation is now clearly above the European Central Bank's limit of 2pc fixed by treaty law but the bank's governing council is expected to hold interest rates steady when it meets today.

Jean-Philippe Cotis, the OECD's chief economist, said yesterday it would be "premature" for the bank to tighten monetary policy. He said the ECB was less able to manage the ups and downs of the economic cycle than the Bank of England or the US Federal Reserve because of the rigid structure of the eurozone's financial system. He said the Anglo-Saxon practice of flexible rate mortgates made their economies much more responsive to tweaks in interest rates.

The ECB is now in the awkward position of presiding over "negative" real interests - below the rate of inflation - a policy that would have been regarded as dangerously lax by the former German Bundesbank, but a rate rise in the current political climate is becoming unthinkable.

Both the Italian and German governments lashed out at the bank last week, demanding rate cuts to drive down the exchange rate of the euro.

The currency markets are now starting to give their own verdict on the eurozone's outlook. The euro has fallen to 10-week lows against the Japanese yen and has slipped to 1.288 against the dollar, far off its highs earlier this spring.

[indieman] 25/4/2005 07:34

phil,

Hard to agree if you can time it right.

Even after the large drop last Monday, I took almost 20% profit in about 5 months. Would have been 25% had I obeyed my instincts (See Post 30) and not waited until Monday.

Che sera.

[phil2003] 24/4/2005 23:55

last one out turn off the lights - you've been suckered.
terrible, terrible stock.

[indieman] 18/4/2005 11:46

Ouch and out. Damn.

[indieman] 12/4/2005 15:40

According to today's Daily Telegraph, it's beginning to look like the continental economies are weakening. TRG is mainly into the higher tech end of continental companies and these could be vulnerable. Still holding for the moment.

[keyboard] 11/4/2005 16:08

I have to agree with Indieman re share-price stability in the case of TREG following this tender offer, which I also think is a non-starter for small share-holders.
Also, market conditions vis-a-vis the euro/£ exchange rate over the last twelve months have favoured TREG but if the euro falls considerably vs sterling,
the outlook for TREG could also be affected adversely. Predicting exchange rates
is a mug's game, so any weakness in sterling might imo give TREG holders a better opportunity to sell than what is on offer now!

[indieman] 06/4/2005 16:08

Stoic,

Small shareholders CAN bypass market forces etc by accepting the Tender Offer.

I also bought in 2001 but sold before they fell of a cliff.

This Offer has been put in place to avoid the share price dropping back as the major holder bails out. That should help stabilise the price rather than the opposite.

I don't see the connection between new sales of shares and liquidation of some of the trust's assets. Am I missing something?

[stoic warrior] 06/4/2005 14:59

Indieman - thanks for that. It is easy to forget that these things which masquerade as something for all shareholders, are really only something for the Boys. I have read deeper in their docs and it seems TRG's major client wants to sell (Carrousel?).

Now it is not my intent to sound sarcastic here but wouldn't it be nice if we small (even small-ish) shareholders could bypass market forces and market makers.

I've held this in an ISA 5 years, predating TR's envolvement and the share price is only just now getting back to near what it was in 2000-'01. I fear, however, that once the major s/h's transaction is done this price will drop back, at least a fair bit, undoing all the hard fought increase these past couple years. If no new sales (of shares) then some liquidation will have to happen. That may also mean the loss of a good manager or two there, most likely the one(s) responsible for building this back up. My view. Pity.

[indieman] 06/4/2005 13:54

Stoic,

The price to buy is 6.5% below NAV, so if you wanted to buy it would be at a premium to the current price. This might be attractive for people wanting to buy a very large stake without going through the market and pushing the price up.

The raison d'etre for the tender is to allow a very large stakeholder to heavily reduce/eliminate his holding without affecting the share price adversely. The difference between current discount and 6.5% discount is a few pence in favour of sellers and would be worthwhile if you were thinking of selling anyway. The fact that they intend repeating the Tender Offer in future suggests they are keen to stabilise the discount at not more than ca. 10%.

[stoic warrior] 06/4/2005 09:12

As I read it this tender offer isn't any gift - or even any value added benefit - to us shareholders IMO, ... current discount to NAV is about 9.4% and they're offering 6.5% ... also, any new purchase they are going to charge a .02 commission on! That's gravy to them on something they could do for free. One can buy & sell in the open market better. I must be missing something ... what is the point of this? As it stands, my opinion is No. No deal IMO.

Other views?

[wedged] 02/4/2005 08:42

Any views on the Tender Offer ?

[keyboard] 22/12/2004 12:43

Two 'star' old-timers, TRG and GPE, have continued to do better than most ITs
this year, for different reasons, and imo given the euro exchange rate, there
should be more upside as far as TRG goes.

[mroalan] 20/12/2004 20:47

is there anyone here?

[1philipio] 06/11/2004 10:50

Tick, tick, tick. Softly, softly, catchee monkee. Continuous upward trend since this time last year. Let it continue like this into the future. Slowly up is better than flat, or down.

[indieman] 23/9/2004 14:28

I am taking an interest in this stock and thought the thread deserved an outing. Now to check out the chart etc.

[1philipio] 28/2/2004 09:14

That was a while ago but if they do some aggressive stock-picking like they used to we could see it happen. By end 04 would be nice.

[michaeld] 20/2/2004 16:42

Yes, climbing steadily and so hopefully, might get my £4 a share back one day?

[1philipio] 11/2/2004 18:38

NAV climbing very very slowly, but at least it's on the upward trend. Twould be nice to see a continuation onwards and upwards. As you say, Keyboard, 200 coming up soon. Fingers crossed they can keep picking good stuff like they always used to in the heady pre 9/11 days......

[keyboard] 02/1/2004 12:15

From 121 on 6 May when I last posted here to 166 today gives us
a 37% rise in eight months. Quality ITs are doing well in general
at the moment, but TREG should rise significantly this year if the
very clear trend, depicted in post 15 holds, and with the weakening
dollar and rising euro (some see it hitting 80p to the euro this year)
I see no reason at the moment why it shouldn't. French and German
markets have been doing well and the outlook for European markets in
general appears to be positive at the beginning of the year.
I hope to see TRG trading at 220+ before long.

[wedged] 01/1/2004 14:18

Price recovery continues and some major buys. Looking good for 2004.

[keyboard] 06/5/2003 14:50

Rising of late and the currency movements (euro/sterling) should
help TRG to climb further, if present trends persist. Has risen
from 100p on 30 October, 2002 to 121 this morning. Good going for a European investment trust, imo!

[dondee] 05/1/2003 20:20

Going up nicely now.

[geoffrey] 03/10/2002 00:26

Its now 2nd October and with shares xd at 94p and atleast 25% discount perhaps the turning point has been reached?! Holding anyway for significant gain over next 12 months based on 4 factors :portfolio growth,narrowed discount,more share repurchases,appreciation of Euro.