Touchstone Grp Share Discussion Threads

[glasshalfull] 06/9/2006 16:21

Yep, good to see the breaskout continuing.

Still only on a single digit PER for the year if T&G's forecasts of 18.57p EPS are met.
This also ignores the net cash on the B/S and underlying strenghth of their cash generation.

Regards
GHF

[geraldus] 05/9/2006 20:16

We have lift off-lovely stuff.

[tole] 05/9/2006 15:24

Have to agree that it looks like they are short here - no ominous shake or share price retrace from its move up after that nice trading update.
Breakout looks on now.

[tole] 05/9/2006 15:04

Dammn - almost added earlier.

[glasshalfull] 05/9/2006 15:03

A further 2k buy has helped us pass the May high....looking good.

Regards
GHF

[glasshalfull] 05/9/2006 14:53

....just about there. Any small trades are resulting in a tick up...not much stock IMO.


Regards
GHF

[britishb] 05/9/2006 14:06

Starting to tick up now. I reckon a few have been waiting for a dip as the RSI was quite high...but I reckon this might move quite quickly if, as it appears, we are breaking out above the May high...

[glasshalfull] 05/9/2006 13:21

Agree britishb...but then you knew I would :-)

As you indicated on the BDI thread yesterday, there is far better value to be had in TSE in comparison, throwing off cash while recruiting/expanding rather than the working capital outflow experienced by BDI for example....and all on a single PER for the year (if only just now).

Regards
GHF

[britishb] 05/9/2006 12:57

Nice steady buying since the AGM statement. Looks capable of pushing over 2 quid fairly rapidly once we get past the May spike higer. Almost all the buys recently at full offer.

[glasshalfull] 30/8/2006 14:38

Afternoon Tole

Just updating a few of the quieter threads where there is news or the expectation of news in the coming days (the busier threads certainly don't require input from myself :-)

All buys at the full offer with only the bid increasing. Looks good to me...


Regards
GHF

[tole] 30/8/2006 14:27

Nice find GHF - can always count on you ;)

Cant be much longer until we break this 170p for a run up to the 200p target short term.

Actually was hoping for a slight retracement to allow me to add a few more. Though as you say, the buying here has been pretty strong as of late - Definately fancied adding some more to tuck away.

[glasshalfull] 30/8/2006 13:43

Good to see continued interest in the stock......a further 5 trades today - 12k traded - and all buys.

Some new news on the web site that confirms that business is going very well: -

Touchstone Group takes number 1 spot in UK partner channel for Systems Union




30 August 2006

Touchstone Group, business solutions consultancy, takes 'pole position' as the number 1 UK channel partner for SunSystems from Systems Union plc, the world's leading provider and distributor of first class financial and performance management solutions to the mid-market. The announcement marks the pinnacle of a successful long-standing relationship between Touchstone Group and Systems Union who have worked as a partnership since the advent of each company in 1982.



"This is a very exciting milestone for Touchstone," states Adrian McNay, Managing Director, Touchstone Limited, part of Touchstone Group. "SunSystems software provides consistently high-quality and reputable solutions which we are very pleased to be able to offer our customers as part of a best-of-breed system." McNay continues, "We are delighted to have achieved this accolade - it reinforces our message to the market that Touchstone Group is not only a large provider of integrated business software solutions but it is also the partner for SunSystems."



With just over half of all Touchstone Group's customers now using SunSystems Solutions, Touchstone Group – which has always been positioned as one of the top three channel partners for Systems Union – has now taken the lead from its rivals.



"An integral part of Touchstone Group's success in this achievement is our highly dedicated and experienced team," says McNay.



Joining this team and further building on its expertise is Faye O'Neill. Appointed Sun Practice Manager, O'Neill will manage and lead the SunSystems practice team where her many responsibilities will include growing the SunSystems business, ensuring that Integration projects are delivered effectively and efficiently - both on time and within budget – and liaising with sales directors to ensure effective delivery to clients.



Commenting on her appointment, McNay adds, "O'Neill has a background steeped in SunSystems experience. Having been with Touchstone Group for almost nine years, she is totally committed to the company's philosophy of business and our dedication to our customers and partners. Her new appointment will see her being a vital lynch-pin in the Systems Union relationship and the effective delivery of SunSystems solutions to our clients."



O'Neill steps into her new role from her previous responsibility as Sun Helpdesk Manager where she ran a team of nine people tasked in the technical and procurement support for SunSystems solutions. In this role she implemented a managed upgrade process, facilitating the demanding SunSystems 5 upgrades in addition to project support involving a support consultant attending on-sites for all Sun 5 implementations.



Prior to this, O'Neill held a procurement and finance consultancy role where she successfully implemented several procurement and SunSystems 5 projects having spent a number of years previously as a Support Consultant for SunSystems and the companion products.



Regards
GHF

[tole] 22/8/2006 18:13

Investtechs view.

Shows a strong development within a rising trend channel. A further positive development is indicated, and there is support against the floor of the trend channel. It also gave positive signal from a rectangle formation at the break up through the resistance at 162. Further rise to 196 or more is signaled. The stock is testing the resistance at p 167, which may give a negative reaction. Poor liquidity (traded 91% of the days, mean 3.78 mill per day) weakens the analysis. The stock is overall assessed as technically neutral for the medium long term.

[mrdynevor] 22/8/2006 15:23

I think that there would be more trades if the spread was smaller.

Excellent share and one to tuckk away for the long term. Microsoft are going to dominate the mid-market for business software, they do not sell directly and so Touchstones strategy of riding the Microsoft wave is great.

Touchstone are UK leaders in this space. As Microsoft are aimed at the mid-market the size of the deal opportunities will deter the big boys from having a big impact in this space as the consulting teams will be too small and expensive.

Tuck away for 3-5 years and just collect the dividends.

[morwood] 22/8/2006 14:03

I hope so, all we need is some of the bigger boys to get interested.

[glasshalfull] 22/8/2006 13:24

Nice to see the buying continuing in this one.

6 trades today so far, albeit most are small, and all are buys - with the last 5 at the full offer price.

Maybe this time it'll push onto a price that better reflects the value of the company.



Regards
GHF

[glasshalfull] 21/8/2006 15:18

dynamo joe - Sorry, but I can't really answer any of your questions. Investing is not an exact science.
I tried to explain my rationale in the previous post when I felt that they should have been around the £2 mark as of June 2006 based on the multiple I had plucked to demonstrate that price.

My own target for the next 12 months would be 260p based on an undemanding PER of 13 and my guesstimate that earnings will come in around 20P for the year.
They have already covered a third of the financial year and have achieved growth of 38%, so my own target is very much achievable.

They could of course fail to reach my target price or may well exceed it depending on the multiple the market are willing to subscribe to the company.
I attempted to point out my reasoning why this company should be valued at 260p however given their track record they could easily be on a PER in the mid teens IMHO, I was just trying to err on the side of caution - downplay the upside.

TSE is a very illiquid share due to the CEO's family owning around half the equity and there being only 2 MM's for the stock and therefore dreadful spread.
I have no idea if it will dip or not. I'm no trader so looking at this as a LTBH.

Hope this assists.Remember that this is my own opinion and does not constitute any investment advice.

Kind regards
GHF

[dynamo_joe] 21/8/2006 12:20

thanks GHF! When is your 220 target expected?
Have you or anyone else here got any thoughts on a good time to enter this? A coulpe of big "UP" days makes me want to jump in but expereience tells me I shoudl hang on for a dip... Are we expecting one?
Thanks!
Joe

[glasshalfull] 20/8/2006 18:53

dynamo joe - There are a few companies on the sector which are lowly rated for a variety of reasons and unduly so IMHO (a couple of the companies mentioned in the Hardman note).

I believe that TSE merits a rating in the low teens to reflect the fact that they have increased revenues in each year for the last 25 years, no mean feat and an enviable record; are demonstrating significant growth in the last 4 months as per the AGM statement,"increased by 38% compared to the same period last year"; offers a D/V yield just under 3%; net cash in the balance sheet (£3.1M as of 31st March 2006) and highly cash generative.

They announced basic earnings of 15.7p in their finals and applying a multiple of say 13 at the time of the results in June would have suggested a price around 205p which would have been a fair valuation - IMHO - as of June 2006.

With the AGM statement's bullish tone and brokers suggesting that their growth is stronger than anticipated, I feel EPS may come in around 20p+
Applying the same multiple of 13 would provide a target figure of 260p if that were achieved.
The share price will of course not mirror such simplified logic but it provides me with a target I believe the shares capable of reaching and all this on a very undemanding rating of PER 13 as I suggest in the above calculations.

The company is therefore significantly undervalued and one to tuck away at the current price. All IMHO of course.


Regards
GHF

[dynamo_joe] 18/8/2006 16:32

what time scale are you guys thinking for these (up to) 50% gains?
Anyone looked at the resistance points on the charts?

[glasshalfull] 18/8/2006 16:11

Very pleasing to see these getting a little more attention.
Good write-up by britishb on the AGM - thanks.

I think that the 18p EPS forecast will be comfortably beaten and think 20p more realistic.
As Tole says, 255p would not be a demanding price target given the companies track record, cash generation and net cash on the balance sheet.
We also know that trading is excellent.

A very good LTBH.


Regards
GHF

[tole] 18/8/2006 15:19

Surely not...lol

Think they'll be regretting it when these trade at a lowly non-demanding PE of 12 - which based on current EPS projection of circa 18 gives a nice initial target price of 216p

Put them on a more mid-teens rating as stated in the recent Hardman note where they have a price target of 255p and that leaves a nice 55% premium to go for.

[mikey_b] 18/8/2006 11:45

Is that a little profit taking already ?