Total Systems Share Discussion Threads

[gain] 15/4/2002 15:23

mms shaking the tree - just trying to drum up trade

[mog] 09/4/2002 15:31

Equity Investigator were always more (too?) optimistic, their forecast in January of 15.6p for March 2003 was only 3 days before Seymour Pierce came out with 11.9p. So Brewin's March forecast of 10.7p is only 10% lower than Seymour's January forecast of 11.9p. Not too bad a drop considering Terry Bourne's comments about the next 12 months being bumpy, and still 15% growth on March 2002, and a pe of only 10.

[gzr] 09/4/2002 15:08

No wonder the shares are falling then. Equity Investigator were forecasting 15.6p for next year. I think I'll leave them on my watch list for the moment.

[mog] 09/4/2002 12:53

looks like the mm's dropped the price after the latest house broker forecasts came out on 11th March, their forecasts are lower than the other brokers' earlier forecasts and are 9.3p for this year and 10.7 for year to March 03, looks like good value to me on a prospective pe of 10.4 at the current price of 111.5p.

however I wouldn't be surprised if we're in for some continued weakness as techninvest said they're going to sell some of their recent poor performers and this fits the bill (along with Merant perhaps)

[chopsy] 04/4/2002 20:44

Have you seen the company website investor's section? It shows three marketmakers, with, if I interpret it correctly, very little stock at present. Any views on what that means?

No recent news here, but the forecasts remain very good. The current year is finished, just have to wait for results now. A trading update would be very welcome. Any views?

[taurusthebear] 20/3/2002 08:23

Just looked back here after a month away - I see nothing has changed, except of course the price, which is a hostage to MM games. This company seems sound, but the share price movements don't seem proportional to trades!

[mog] 13/3/2002 10:38

dan, chopsy, I agree, the mm's dropped the price over 10p after net sales of only 3000 shares!! I was expecting a delayed or protected trade to be revealed later on but there wasn't one, just seems to be mm's panicking or playing around with the price

[chopsy] 12/3/2002 21:32

Further buying opportunity.

[dan_bach] 12/3/2002 19:22

Crazy movement in the price today - down 12p to 122p - knocking over £1m off the value of the company on a total volume of 11,713 shares traded...

[chopsy] 07/3/2002 00:41

Look at the eps growth. The most recent interims are more than last years finals. Worth £3-00 minimum IMHO.

Look at the chart. Some recent profit taking after a massive run, now ready to take off again.

Up 2p on small volume today, no overhang, every bit you buy counts.

Two bagger in four months or so, I guess, as that's when the next results are out.

Good luck to all, holders and new investors, and even profit takers.

This share has the potential of TIG (similar markets), with none of the drag.

[selftaught] 21/2/2002 21:54

Gone a little quiet, although price drifted of late. Started to pick up on small volume once again and I hope we can see a new high in near future. Since last posting, I have had a closer look at TTS and the fundamentals are still excellent for the next 2 years and with this in mind I personally see the current low price as a buying/holding opportunity. Anyone who gets REFS have a good look at the forecasts and ratios which do look very positive. Once this current technology bear market ends (whenever...) I really do feel that quality companies such as TTS will be rerated. DYOR

[selftaught] 06/2/2002 20:01

I will almost certainly top up at that low level, my old mate!! Ok statement was cautious, but long term still looks promising IMHO.

[gzr] 06/2/2002 08:12

Probably down, selftaught. Chief exec's statement didn't inspire much confidence short term. I don't hold, might get interested if they pull back closer to 100-120p.

[selftaught] 06/2/2002 07:58

Any new thoughts on where this one's heading short term/long term.

[greatbear] 01/2/2002 18:14

Well I'm not knocking the price jump. However it would be nice to know why???
Also I thought Ultima software was a money saver (in staff) for insurance companies that are looking at cutting costs.

GB

[selftaught] 28/1/2002 20:53

Personally saw this as a long term buying opportunity and added to holdings. Time will tell if I'm right in doing so, but the fundamentals look solid enough and I intend holding for quite some time if necessary.

[dan_bach] 28/1/2002 20:03

Down 7.9% or 12.5p today on 42k shares traded. Roughly £50k of deals and £1m off the market cap...

[taurusthebear] 28/1/2002 10:58

I don't think CEO Terry Bourne did these any favours with his comments the other day. I'd be looking for a price below 140-142p, as it showed a jump from there on incredibly thin volume. We shall see....

[gzr] 21/1/2002 09:33

Total Systems cautious after share surge
By Joanne Offer
Mon 21 Jan 2002


LONDON (SHARECAST) - A rally following superb interims helped Total Systems soar to an all-time high of 170p on Friday. But investors should heed the note of caution coming out of this tiny software developer, which has only 30% of its shares in free float, before getting too excited.

Chief executive Terry Bourne said: "We are seeing delayed orders across the industry and there are symptoms of problems on the horizon.

"This will not affect full-year figures for the year to April, but from then on it will be a different story. We would have to be extremely lucky to avoid what's going on.

"After the events of September 11, companies are looking to cut costs and they will do this by not spending money on software. I'm not trying to talk our price down, but investors should not expect anything dramatic from us.

"We plan to double our turnover in the next two years, but the next 12 months could be bumpy."

In December, Total published interims that far outstripped market expectations. Turnover rose 79% to £2.84m and pre-tax profit jumped to £773,000 in the six months to September 2001 - more than for the whole of the previous year.

Total's Ultima software was the main breadwinner. It allows insurers to bundle all their products under one policy, should they so wish, and is simple to use and cost efficient. Bourne said it had enabled one customer to reduce its IT staff from 108 to eight.

Ultima is a strong, proven product but Bourne freely admits that Total suffers from small company-itis. It is sometimes immediately crossed off a list to tender because of its diminutive market capitalisation.

Sales to date, especially of add-on services, mean that Total expects to hit forecasts for the year to March 2002, but after that delayed IT decisions may begin to bite.

True, Total may get some respite from a resurgence of interest in Optima, its dated pensions software, following the Unilever/Merrill Lynch scenario. But Optima is not a big-ticket sale and is in need of upgrading, which could take up to 18 months.

Investors should not despair: Total has a solid, if small, balance sheet that should see it through any downturn. It had almost £2.7m cash at September 30 and is cash-flow positive.

But the recent share price hike means that it is beginning to look expensive - not something usually associated with Total, a company that has been more likely to languish on an unloved rating.

Broker Seymour Pierce expects Total to report a pre-tax profit of £1.37m and earnings per share of 9.2p for the year to 31 March 2002, rising to £1.78m and 11.9p respectively the year after. At Friday's price of 170p, that puts Total on 18 times earnings this year and makes it look at least fair value.
Copyright © 2001 ShareCast.com
Send your comments to Joanne Offer

[taurusthebear] 21/1/2002 09:19

Don't like the way these go up on thin air! Was waiting for them to come back a bit, but am not chasing at these levels. Good luck!

[selftaught] 21/1/2002 08:44

New high ground - 174p. 200p here we come and more in my view....

[selftaught] 18/1/2002 08:39

Watch these today. Already up 6p at 165p offer, and chart starting to look very positive. 200p in sight IMHO.

[chopsy] 12/1/2002 10:09

And importantly their forecasts for the following year are significantly increased. One more like that and there will be a new consensus for 2003 and earnings growth acceleration will be forecast by consensus. That can be a powerful driver for shareprice.