Total Share Discussion Threads

[grupo guitarlumber] 05/1/2015 20:18

Time to drip feed

[essentialinvestor] 05/1/2015 17:55

That's a brutal one day drop.

[grupo guitarlumber] 03/1/2015 18:39

Calendar
.

Financial events

Feb. 12, 2015

Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2014 Results .

Apr. 28, 2015

First Quarter 2015 Results
.
May. 29, 2015

2015 Annual Shareholders' Meeting in Paris
.
Jul. 29, 2015

Second Quarter and First Half 2015 Results .

[waldron] 03/1/2015 11:41

SEEKING ALPHA



Bob Ciura
Value, growth at reasonable price, long-term horizon, dividend investing
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Total: Undervalued Oil Giant With Secure 5% Dividend Yield Dec. 30, 2014 5:07 AM ET | 12 comments | About: TOTAL S.A. (TOT) by: Bob Ciura Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. (More...)
Summary
•Total's stock price has declined by double-digits this year, due to the ongoing collapse in oil prices.
•Total is also suffering from exposure to deteriorating economic conditions in Europe, and the death of the company's Chief Executive Officer.
•However, Total's underlying business remains strong, evident from its high returns on capital and resilient profits during this difficult time.
•Total is now a cheap and undervalued stock with a solid 5% dividend yield that pays investors well to wait for business conditions to turn around.
French oil giant Total (NYSE:TOT) is currently suffering from several headwinds that are weighing it down. First and foremost is the ongoing collapse in oil prices. Brent crude has collapsed all the way to $57 per barrel, the lowest prices since 2009. This is a shocking decline in a relatively short amount of time. Brent traded above $110 per barrel earlier this year. Obviously, it goes without saying that this has caused stock prices for the global energy giants to fall, on fears that earnings will be crushed from declining oil. In addition, Total had to deal with the death of its Chief Executive Officer this year, as well as the poor economic conditions in Europe, its key geographic market. This has all clearly affected Total, which has seen its stock price fall 13% this year to its current level of $53 per share.

But underneath the scary headlines is a highly profitable company that generates healthy cash flow. Total's falling stock price has created a buying opportunity, because the stock is cheap and too undervalued given its cash flow generation. Moreover, Total pays investors a strong 5% dividend yield that is well-secured with profits. Total's dividend yield, which is near the top of its peer group, compensates investors very well who are willing to wait for the turnaround in the energy markets. For all these reasons, Total is a buy at its current level and offers compelling upside potential in addition to strong income.

Near-term pressures mask Total's strong underlying business
The market is clearly worried that Total will suffer a large drop in profitability, based on declining oil and the economic turmoil in Europe. But Total navigated 2014 quite admirably, all things considered. Over the first nine months of the year, revenue and diluted earnings per share declined just 2% and 8%, respectively, which is relatively strong performance in a brutal operating climate. Total owes its buoyant financial results to its integrated structure. The collapse in oil prices has undoubtedly put a dent in upstream activities, which include traditional exploration, discovery, and production. Indeed, Total's upstream division saw operating profit decline 5% over the first nine months. However, Total's downstream business, which involves refining and chemicals, grew operating profits by 8% in the same period. Refining and other downstream functions typically perform well when oil prices fall, because refining spreads and margins widen, which causes profitability to improve on this side of the energy business.

The integrated business model is providing valuable insulation against the downturn in commodities, and this explains why other integrated majors such as U.S. based Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) are also holding up well. For example, Exxon Mobil's upstream profits fell 4% to $6.4 billion last quarter, due to falling oil prices. Chevron followed suit, with exploration and production earnings dropping by 8% in the quarter. But their downstream operations are helping keep their overall profits afloat. Exxon Mobil's downstream profit soared 73% in the last quarter. Chevron's downstream earnings more than tripled year-over-year, to $1.3 billion last quarter.

Likewise, Total's downstream business will protect the overall company from a collapse in earnings. Unfortunately, Total's problems don't stop there. The company suffered a tragic event when its Chief Executive Officer Christophe de Margerie was killed in a private plane crash in October. This has resulted in additional uncertainty about what the future holds for the company, but these concerns should ease with time. Total has a very competent management team and the company's key priorities remain in place, which means this is a short-term headwind for the stock and not something to be concerned about long-term.

More concerning is the continued economic deterioration in Europe. Obviously, Total derives a large portion of its business in Europe. But Total has a plan to survive this rough patch, which is to cut costs and divest under-performing projects that are not deemed critical to the company's future. By the end of this year, Total will have divested between $15 billion-$20 billion worth of assets over the past three years. This has kept returns at a satisfactory level. Over the trailing 12-month period through the third quarter, Total generated a 12% return on capital, unchanged from the previous 12-month time frame. This demonstrates the strength of Total's business, and its flexibility to keep profitability intact, even when oil prices decline.

Total: A great stock to buy for value and income investors alike
The decline in Total's stock price this year has pushed down its valuation too low. The stock trades for just 1.2 times book value and 4 times enterprise-value-to-EBITDA. Exxon Mobil and Chevron trade for 2.1 times book and 1.3 times book, respectively. And, Exxon Mobil and Chevron trade for 6 and 5 times enterprise value-to-EBITDA, respectively. Based on EV/EBITDA, Total is 33% cheaper than Exxon Mobil and 25% cheaper than Chevron. This leaves open the possibility for valuation expansion for Total.

In the meantime, Total pays a strong 5% dividend. The company announced it will keep its dividend unchanged at 0.61 euros per share, payable next March. The dividend pays investors very well to wait for a turnaround in commodity prices. The combination of compelling capital gain potential and dividends make Total's total return potential too attractive to pass up right now. This is why both value and income investors should find Total to be extremely attractive for investment.

[philo124] 23/12/2014 07:30

Thanks Waldron.

[waldron] 01/12/2014 16:28

By Noemie Bisserbe
PARIS--French oil major Total SA (TOT) said Monday it had found oil and gas near the city of Erbil, in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, its second discovery in the Harir block in two years.
The well was tested with flow rates of 6,100 barrels per day, said the company.
Total has a 35% stake in the Harir Block, alongside Marathon Oil, which owns a 45% share, and the Kurdistan regional government, which holds the remaining 25% stake.
Write to Noemie Bisserbe at [e-mail]
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[philo124] 01/12/2014 08:48

On watch list.

[waldron] 27/11/2014 13:40

VIENNA--Iran's oil minister met BP PLC (BP) and Total SA (TOT) on Wednesday, in a sign of renewed interest for the country's oil sector.
International sanctions ban Western oil companies from entering Iran's oil fields. Earlier this week, Tehran failed to reach a final nuclear agreement with world powers, which could have eased such restrictions.
Speaking to reporters, Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh said he met representatives of BP PLC--the first such reported meeting with the British oil giant--and France's Total SA to discuss a possible entry in the country. Total, which was represented by new Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne, and BP have both previously said they won't work in Iran unless sanctions are lifted.
Separately, Mr Zanganeh also met Vagit Alekperov, president of Russian oil giant Lukoil (LUKOY). Speaking to reporters, Mr. Alekperov said that "as soon as sanctions [are] lifted, we are hoping [to] enter" the country. He also said Lukoil would like to participate in bidding round for new oil contracts which is due early next year, but which has been postponed several times.
Lukoil currently hasn't any business with Iran and is present in Western countries which have imposed sanctions.
Mr. Zanganeh was in Vienna for a gathering of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries set for Thursday.
-Write to Benoit Faucon [e-mail]
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[waldron] 26/11/2014 08:33

By Inti Landauro PARIS-- Total SA will face corruption charges in a French court related to contracts made in Iran in the 1990s, a spokeswoman for the Paris prosecutor said on Tuesday.
Paris magistrates have decided to put the big French oil company on trial, along with two Iranian nationals. They had also planned to put the company's former chief executive Christophe de Margerie on trial, before he was killed in a plane crash at a Moscow airport last month.
No date has been set for the trial yet, said the spokeswoman.
The magistrates' decision follows a recommendation made last year by the prosecutor to prosecute the company. Under French law, magistrates can pursue corporations as well as individuals.
A Total spokesman on Tuesday confirmed the company had been informed of the magistrate's decision to prosecute it, but he declined to comment further.
Total has said in the past that the company and Mr. de Margerie acted in accordance with all applicable French laws in regard to the Iranian contracts in question. If convicted, the company could face a fine of as much as 150,000 euros ($186,000).
The French probe into Total's Iranian activities was part of coordinated legal action with the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission, which last year fined the company a combined $398 million in the same case.
U.S. prosecutors alleged in court documents that Total bribed an Iranian official to obtain lucrative oil and gas concessions, in violation of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, which is the 1977 law that bars companies that issue securities from paying bribes overseas.
As part of the agreement with the Justice Department, the company had agreed to hire an outside lawyer to oversee its compliance with anticorruption laws and to invest in its internal mechanisms to look for corrupt payments. After three years, the Justice Department will drop criminal charges if prosecutors are satisfied with Total's efforts.
The French and U.S. investigations began in earnest in the mid-2000s. In 2007, a few months after he was appointed chief executive of Total, Mr. de Margerie was questioned for 48 hours by French police who were probing whether the oil company paid bribes to win contracts. Total said at the time all payments were legal.
Write to Inti Landauro at [e-mail]

[waldron] 17/11/2014 12:03

ex divi 15 décembre 2014
pay day 17 décembre 2014

[waldron] 29/10/2014 20:41

PARIS--Patrick Pouyanne, the newly appointed chief executive of French oil major Total SA (TOT), Wednesday said he expects OPEC will act on supply to support oil prices after the recent decline.
Mr. Pouyanne, who took over at the helm of the company after the tragic death of his predecessor, said in a conference call with analysts that Total sees "no reason to change its long term outlook". Mr. Pouyanne added that "OPEC will remain a market mover and will manage responsibly the resource and will eventually defend the oil price." The company expects the price of Brent to return to levels higher than at the start of October.
Total's Chief Financial Officer Patrick de la Chevardiere said the company's oil fields are over breakeven with Brent price at $80, though the company will focus on cost-cutting. He added the company will have enough cash to pay a dividend even at $80 a barrel, he said. The average price of the key Brent crude oil benchmark over the period fell by 8% during the third quarter, denting Total's earnings. Since then, the price has fallen by another 11%.
The company's CFO said Total loses about $1.5 billion of net profit for every $10 decline on the Brent oil price.
-Write to Inti Landauro at [e-mail]
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[waldron] 28/10/2014 09:19

By Noemie Bisserbe
PARIS--French oil company Total SA (TOT) said Tuesday it had agreed to sell an 8% share in the Gina Krog field in Norway along with stakes in three other minor fields offshore the North Sea to PGNiG Upstream International for a total of $317 million.
Total will retain a 30% stake in the Gina Krog field, which is expected to produce 60,000 barrels of oil and 9 million cubic meters per day, said the company in a statement.
The transaction, which should be effective on Jan. 1, 2014, is subject to the approval of the Norwegian authorities, added the French company.
PGNiG, established in 2007, is a subsidiary of Polish Oil and Gas Company.
-Write to Noemie Bisserbe at [e-mail]

[grupo guitarlumber] 24/10/2014 19:16

Target price Rating

AVERAGE 55.33 positive 6
Prev. Quarter 55.43 neutral 3
+/- in % -0.2 negative 0

MEDIAN 56.00
Maximum 62.00
Minimum 47.00
Amount 9

Barclays 62.00 Overweight
Citigroup 57.00 Buy
Credit Suisse 51.50 Outperform
Deutsche Bank 55.00 Buy
HSBC 57.50 Overweight
Natixis 56.00 Neutral
Nomura 56.00 Buy
Santander 56.00 Hold
Societe Generale 47.00 Hold

[grupo guitarlumber] 21/10/2014 08:39

By Ruth Bender
PARIS--France's Prime Minister Manuel Valls Tuesday said France lost a "great industrial captain" in Total SA (TOT) Chairman and Chief Executive Christophe de Margerie, who died Monday in a plane crash at a Russian airport.
"France is losing a company chief out of the ordinary who knew how to transform Total into a global giant," Mr. Valls said, expressing his "profound sadness" over the death.
Mr. de Margerie enjoyed close relations with numerous world leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin. Mr. Valls said he also lost "a friend."
-Write to Ruth Bender at [e-mail]
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[grupo guitarlumber] 15/10/2014 13:25

By Inti Landauro
PARIS--Oil major Total SA (TOT) Wednesday said a much scrutinized indicator gauging the health of the European refining industry has improved significantly during the third quarter.
Total said its European refining margin jumped to $29.9 a metric ton in the third quarter this year, compared with $10.9/ton in the second quarter and $6.6 a ton in the first quarter.
The increase is good news for a business that was hit by a stiff drop in demand for oil products on the back of the economic crisis and stricter environmental regulations. European refiners also face increased competition from other regions, notably the U.S. where refining costs are lower.
Total Chairman and Chief Executive, Christophe de Margerie, has said repeatedly that the company could mothball or even close more plants if necessary.
Total's European refining margin represents the margin after variable costs of a hypothetical complex refinery located around Rotterdam in northern Europe, processing a mix of crude oil and other inputs.
Write to Inti Landauro at [e-mail]
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[grupo guitarlumber] 13/10/2014 09:27

TOTAL : Surveiller le comportement des cours sur les supports

Dernier cours : 44.6
Support : 42.41 / 40.79
Resistance : 50.48 / 52.1
Opinion court terme : neutre
Opinion moyen terme : neutre

[maywillow] 11/10/2014 09:11

29 octobre 2014Résultats du 3e trimestre 2014

[waldron] 24/9/2014 09:14

PARIS--French oil major Total SA (TOT) Tuesday said it signed an agreement to sell the 25% stake it holds in a shale gas project in Ohio, U.S., to two Korean companies for $400 million as part of its vast program to sell non-essential assets and liberate cash for investing in oil and gas production and exploration.
Total owns a 25% stake in the Cardinal Gas Services LLC, a company that operates the infrastructure to gather and ship the gas produced in the Utica shale deposit in Ohio.
The company also owns and will keep a stake in the extraction of hydrocarbons in Utica.
Korean companies E1 Corp. (017940.SE) and Samchully Co. Ltd. (004690.SE) will pay Total $400 million plus an estimated adjustment of $50 million.
The operation, which is expected to close next month, is part of a vast program to sell up to $20 billion in non-essential assets by 2015 to raise cash to finance projects of oil and gas exploration and production. The company has said it plans to sell an addition $10 billion worth of assets between 2015 and 2017.
Write to Inti Landauro at [e-mail]
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