Titan Europe Share Discussion Threads

[simon gordon] 03/11/2011 16:11

They issued a TU last year on the 5th November, maybe some action tomorrow or Monday.

[kimboy2] 28/10/2011 22:56

The board gave a hint on dividends;

In view of our outlook and the Group meeting the key net debt/EBITDA (below 3.5/1) covenant for the rolling 12 months to June 2011, the directors will be able to consider the restoration of dividend yield, subject to our banking partners approval. This is ahead of our previous indication in last year's report, which is very encouraging.

At the same time the rate they have been growing absorbs working capital and the level of debt has been a source of concern during the 2008/9 recession.

There is no forecast of dividends but it wouldn't totally surprise me if there were to be a small dividend in the next year or so.

[kimboy2] 28/10/2011 22:32

I reckon that the adjusted H1/11 was 11.8p after deducting the exceptional gain on acquisition.

Arden are forecasting 17.5p so perhaps 23p isn't so unambitious.

I am hoping H2 margins are better than H1/11 which I thought were a bit disappointing.

I am also expecting the 2012 & 2013 forecasts t be uprated. The revs are anticipated to go up by 3 & 5% which is clearly out of date now given the news from just about all customers and cometitors.

[mr. t] 28/10/2011 21:38

Hi Kimboy2,

Thanks again for sharing your research and views. Why 23p eps, if you don't mind me asking? That's less than double H1 this year.

I appreciate the seasonality that may reduce H2 trade compared to H1, but I expect that to be more than compensated by continued growth. Personally, I'm hoping for 25p+ eps this year, but maybe I am a hopeless optimist.

[kimboy2] 28/10/2011 20:03

There seems to be good news everywhere at the moment.

Titan International CEO seems excitable;



On Sept 28th

Agriculture is booming, mining is hot and construction is rebounding. Based on the current demand in our markets, I am revising our latest sales projections for 2011 to be approximately $1.40 billion from the previous $1.20 to $1.35 billion issued in May. Revised EBITDA goals will range from approximately $175 to $200 million, an increase from the May projections of $135 to $155 million. Business at Titan is going strong as we enter into the second half of 2011 and we look forward to 2012 with much optimism based on demands of our customers and the potential growth for the company. We are in a great position to grow and take advantage of opportunities to lead in our markets worldwide," stated Maurice M. Taylor, Chairman and CEO.

Yesterday they had 3Q/11 results;



They seem to be up about 37% adjusting for the Brazilian acquisition. The CEO is even more excited;

Titan's growth this year will be over 50% from last year and we will have an opportunity to match that growth next year. I appreciate that there are people who may not have as positive a view as I do, but when you review the yearly OEM forecast and talk with the end users of tires and wheels, whether its farmers, dealers, mining operators or construction companies, they are all positive. I have been to Europe, South America, Canada, and many places in the United States. It's the same story. Titan has had more visitors from Africa, Indonesia, Russia and Australia this summer than any time ever before. Titan has and will be expanding every factory we own today over the next eight months.

I can assure you we would not be doing this if we thought there would be a pause in the business.


I am expecting a TS next Friday with further upgrades to forecasts. I am hoping for an eventual outturn for this year of 23p, but we shall see.

[greenroom78] 27/10/2011 14:20

I've not looked at Weir but have been in and out of FENR a few times. Oil services I haven't really any involvement, I traded LAM last year but not watching any at present. I like TSW as it is relatively unknown, can't help but feel the next lot of results will put it on a few more peoples radar.

[scottishfield] 27/10/2011 13:39

I hold weir, & like fenner & renold, but weir & tsw will do for now. Also the oil svcs sector, hold ciu & kenz there. Quite a few oilers also. had a bit of cash on the side during last few months, so its getting used up these last two weeks. best of luck to you.

[greenroom78] 27/10/2011 13:34

Cheers Scots - what else are you watching in the sector?

[simon gordon] 27/10/2011 13:28

Looks hot to trot to at least 135p:

[scottishfield] 27/10/2011 09:16

Green, no, I missed the last one, was watching etc, but never got a pace to buy. I like the sector generally. best to you, sf

[kimboy2] 26/10/2011 23:35

Yes well TSW is operationally highly geared for recovery so any potential threat to a macro recovery will have a disproportionate effect.

The last Arden note I had was from Sept 5th which had an EPS of 17.5 for 2011 based on a t/o of £253 in H1/11 and £232 in H2/11.

This lower H2/11 is based, I think, on the historic seasonality which seems to be around 7% less in H2. However I don't think it takes account of the momentum in Q2/11, or the momentum since Q2 that CAT were reporting.

I suspect that we are in for upgrades in the next TS. In particular I am hoping that 2012 will get an upgrade from the higher starting point and the increased assumed growth, which is just 3% presently.

Also CNH are reporting tomorrow and they are 5.5% of turnover in H1/11 so it should provide more market information.

[greenroom78] 26/10/2011 22:22

(a respected poster)

Lol! Really?
What you don't know is I'm peeping through your window, if you closed your curtains properly we wouldn't keep holding the same stocks :-)

More seriously - good to see you here. Is this your first time holding TSW or did you catch some of the last rally? I was amazed to see it fall back last time although was fortunate to get out near the top which was more luck than judgement - I thought it had gone up a lot very quickly but never expected a pull back this far.

Seymour Pierce gave me a timely reminder yesterday with their 'buy' reiteration and their 216p TP. I had TSW on my monitor still but that note helped jog my memory.

[scottishfield] 26/10/2011 21:57

Good to see you here Green (a respected poster)

[greenroom78] 26/10/2011 21:54

I bought back in today having experienced a good run from 92p up to 150p earlier in the year. Were it not for the recent global financial fears I don't think I would've had a chance at these prices again. 150p looks cheap 100p looks daft. I had hoped to catch it yesterday but had to wait for funds to clear today.

[scottishfield] 26/10/2011 11:58

I bought here yesterday, so 'bring on the rumble'

[nurdin] 26/10/2011 11:54

Looks ready to rumble...;o)

[alphahunter] 25/10/2011 01:21

KB2, Thanks for the article on Liebherr.

[smicker] 25/10/2011 01:09

I suppose the sensible course of action is to wait for the statement to confirm good trading and continued positive outlook. At this price there is so much potential upside 10p up to results is neither here nor there

[kimboy2] 25/10/2011 00:26

I think it will be.

The Arden forecast was for EPS of 17.5p for the year.

This was based on an actual revenue of £253.2m for H1/11 and a forecast revenue of £232.5m for H2/11.

However CAT revenues are gaining in strength. There may be some seasonal factors which affect TSW and not CAT but they aren't immediately obvious.

The CAT results showed Europe as being very strong, which is 50% of TSW's business. I think this is franked by the Liebherr results I highlighted earlier.

Anyway barring some idiocy from our continental cousins I am expecting a run up into the trading statement.

[mr. t] 25/10/2011 00:04

If they follow the same pattern as last year, TSW will release a trading statement a week on Friday (4th Nov). I hope it's a good trading statement.

[mr. t] 24/10/2011 23:58

Thanks Kimboy2, things are still looking promising for Titan.

[darcon] 24/10/2011 22:07

Still here. And now kicking myself for having halved my stake. Oh well. At least the news here is expected to be positive

[envirovision] 24/10/2011 16:25

No your not kimboy2, the top end CAT results have been noted.

TSW will have zero trouble doing 17.5p EPS this year and smashing forecast 20p next year by the looks of it.