Titan Europe Share Discussion Threads

[envirovision] 22/7/2011 14:30

CAT results disappoint so much so the DOW futures turn negative. TSW tends to follow CAT in a comatose style hence why the shareprice has not yet moved and indeed may take days to weeks to do so. (from my experience at least).

[wildchild] 22/7/2011 09:56

Wow. An uptick. First one since I bought them. Maybe the market thinks I've sold them.

[kimboy2] 22/7/2011 01:23

Caterpillar results today should prove enlightening.

[jlo10] 20/7/2011 06:37

I bought some at 146.25 and everything was going fine until you had to intervene.
Typical!

[wildchild] 20/7/2011 00:01

I must apologize to all holders here. The reason for the 20p drop is that I bought some at 150p recently and am having terrible luck with my timing this year.

[mikeja] 14/7/2011 15:01

Just checked out Titan International on NYSE,stock is currently selling on 23.36x 2011 earnings and 13.36x 2012 after a further 60% increase in eps in 2012.Augurs well for next 2 yrs in this stock.Time they had a listing in NY.

[alphahunter] 07/7/2011 01:20

Japan's machinery orders rose at the fastest pace in four months in May, a sign companies are increasing spending to restore businesses and production disrupted by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami.

Factory orders, an indicator of capital spending in three to six months, increased 3 percent in May from April, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo, matching the median forecast of 31 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Companies are forecasting profits to recover later this year and stepping up spending plans as manufacturers restore facilities and the government rolls out stimulus to rebuild from a disaster that left more than 22,000 people dead or missing. Komatsu Ltd., the world's second-largest construction machinery maker, said reconstruction plans are spurring demand.

"Companies' willingness to spend on plant and equipment hasn't been dampened much by the earthquake," Yoshiki Shinke, a senior economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo, said before the report. "Looking ahead, orders will likely increase because of demand for rebuilding."

The Bank of Japan's Tankan survey last week showed large companies plan to boost capital spending 4.2 percent in fiscal 2011, exceeding analysts' forecasts for a 2.4 percent increase. While sentiment among large manufacturers fell to minus 9 in June, companies see the index improving to 2 in September. A positive number means optimists outnumber pessimists.

Japan's industrial production rose at the fastest pace in more than 50 years in May, led by carmakers, a government report showed last week.
Rebuilding Demand

Efforts to rebuild the damaged areas are spurring demand for excavators and wheel loaders. Japanese orders increased more than 30 percent in April-June from a year earlier, Komatsu's Chief Executive Officer Kunio Noji said on June 30.

"There'll be much rebuilding work, given the damage is more extensive than the Kobe earthquake," Noji said, referring to the 1995 quake that affected a smaller area and didn't induce a tsunami.

Japan's government last month estimated the damage to buildings, roads and other infrastructure from the March disaster will be around 16.9 trillion yen ($209 billion), about 1.8 times bigger than the damage in the Kobe earthquake.

[kimboy2] 04/7/2011 20:11

E-mail dropped through from some lot called Investors Champion under the title 'objective company comment';

Although the share price has risen significantly over the past 18 months, last weeks’ trading update from the designer and manufacturer of wheels and undercarriage components for off-road vehicles surely suggests there could be a lot more to go for. Titan Europe is a significant business supplying into big growth markets and with debt seemingly under control and trading margins improving it surely deserves a much better rating.

Nothing that I would disagree with but nothing new.

[davebowler] 01/7/2011 10:32

Seymour Pierce

Company: Titan Europe (TSW.L)
Share price: 132p
Market cap (£m): £114.8m
Sector: Industrial Goods & Services
Recommendation: Buy

Synopsis: The positive newsflow from Titan continues with today's AGM statement and trading update. We are once again raising our forecasts. Our revised FY11E forecasts reflect not only the increasing revenue expectations but also the beneficial impact higher revenues and improving product mix have on profitability. The shares continue to offer good value and we retain our 206p share price target, equivalent to 10x FY12E PER.

[davidosh] 01/7/2011 10:25

mikeja...snap but not on your scale ! I have been very fortunate to have had ten baggers at both TSW and WCC. I am pleased others are doing well too and Titan is being discussed in the Pub.



We need the good ones like this as small cap investors do have to take some knocks too.

[venture traveller] 01/7/2011 09:47

Mikeja,


Nice work! any tips for future earners?


VT.

[alphahunter] 01/7/2011 09:45

It's Friday,....So a piece of useless information from Bloomberg this morning.
A single used tyre for a large mining truck cost up to $100,000 in the second- hand market as there are production shortage. No wonder why Titan International flew off.

[alphahunter] 30/6/2011 19:16

Mikeja,

"Supply chain - key commodities
The Group is exposed to price fluctuations of key commodities,
primarily steel and energy. The Group mitigates this risk with the
Group purchasing structure and resultant purchasing power of the
Group. In many cases contracts exist with customers to enable a
pass through of raw material increases using specified indices. In
other cases price changes are negotiated on an as required basis
with the customer."

So it looks like the price increases with the non-indexed clients were successful. That was my concern - having listenned to the conference calls of other steel-hungry machinery companies. :-)

[mikeja] 30/6/2011 19:07

Incidentally my tgt price on this is 300p after the next results.
I aim to pocket £1m on this beauty,after £3m on WCC.

[mikeja] 30/6/2011 19:01

These brokers are way off course.H1 turnover was £167m last yr and 50% on that is £250m.Is there any indication of a fall off in order books?No.
I reckon £500m is a slam dunk for this yr and that may be highly conservative,roll on the interims.

[mikeja] 30/6/2011 18:50

alpha,they made a point of mentioning that most of their contracts allow for them to pass on steel cost increases to their buyers,see report and accounts.

[greenroom78] 30/6/2011 13:06

I'm not interested in a divi either. I'd rather it be spent on reducing the debt.

[alphahunter] 30/6/2011 12:49

Kimboy2,

206p, that's punchy. That means that they don't think TSW is simply enjoying a restocking effect but rather is benefitting from a more structural growth in demand. I wish I could read these bl...dy analyst notes (LOL), I'm reduced to intense food-chain work (Joy Global, Trelleborg, Deere, Caterpillar etc,..).

I'm glad that there is no overbearing negative vibes about input cost, that has always been my concern.

Lastly, I'm not sure I want a dividend, remember that their competitor Meffro still own a fair amount of stock. And Titan International does not need it either.

I wonder what Meffro;s next move is going to be, a couple of institutional investors on the radar screen would be great.

[kimboy2] 30/6/2011 12:05

Update from S-P;

The management anticipate that FY11 results will be ahead of current market expectations and in light of this we are raising our forecasts. FY11E group revenues estimate rise from £427.8m to £439.9m and Adjusted EPS estimate increases from 14.0p to 15.6p. These increases reflect an increase in forecasts revenues in the Wheels division (Revenues £163.0m to £168.5m with a stable trading margin of 7%) and an increase in revenues and margins in the Undercarriage division (Revenues £264.9m to £271.4m with trading margin raised from 5% to 5.5%) reflecting the benefits of both operational gearing and mix improvements.

For the moment we leave our FY12E estimates in place (Revenues £460.4m and Adj EPS 20.6p), waiting until the H1 Results are announced in late August and there is better visibility, but see the risk more on the upside following today's encouraging news. We maintain our BUY recommendation and our target price to 206p, equivalent to 10x FY12E PER.

They seem to have increased their target price from 123p on 19th April to 206p today.

IMV the excessive broker caution is continuing which is I suspect due to a management which is determined to over deliver having been stung in the down turn.

The £439.9m turnover figure is extremely cautious. If we halved the number for H1/11 we would get £220m. We know they have done £117m in Q1/11 which would leave £103m for Q2/11.

IMV the TS indicates that they have done significantly better than Q1 in Q2. I reckon the 2011 outturn is going to be £480m or so which with a 25%+ drop down is not an insignificant outperformance.

The only negative is the net debt which looks as though it may have increased from the £132m at the last results to pay for the expansion, though they have repaid some capital since then so we will see. However if the bottom line is increasing rapidly I think that this will take care of itself.

I hope they don't feel obliged to re-start dividend payments. I think the greatest benefit to shareholders will be to reduce gearing.

[greenroom78] 30/6/2011 09:12

Mikeja "settle around the 150 mark" - boooo!!

;)

Agreed, a boring month or two after the last leap from 90p and now strong again today. I think I can live with a 10-20% leap every couple of months.

[limit up] 30/6/2011 09:04

very good statement for going forward,on track for further growth..
regds

[mikeja] 30/6/2011 08:59

This is a share advancing in steady steps followed by big pops,I would expect them to settle around the 150 mark and take off again in August on interims.
What a nice share to hold!

[kimboy2] 30/6/2011 07:53

Another bit I liked;

As planned, trading margins are improving due to an effective sales price policy and volume impact leverage on fixed costs. We continue to have aggressive programmes for cost reduction ...

It will be interesting to see what the broker report makes of all that.

[mikeja] 30/6/2011 07:40

Looks like we are on target for fy sales around £500m.
On a drop through of,conservatively, 25% on the increase of 150m to profits,ie 37m one can see a £25m drop through to post tax profits and eps around 30p.

[kimboy2] 30/6/2011 07:36

That is all very pleasant.

I particularly liked;

In the period to the end of May 2011, revenues were more than 50% ahead of the comparable period in 2010.

If that is kept up to end june then turnover will be £250m. It might be a bit less because june was probably a strong comparable.

However it compares to turnover of £406m for the year from Arden.

Looks like debt has probably gone up to support the increased turnover though. I am though relatively relaxed about the debt given the strong asset position, as well as the increasing profits.

Anyway congratulations to all holders.