Titan Europe Share Discussion Threads

[smicker] 24/2/2011 21:23

Titan USA up 14% intra day after Q4 results

[yasx] 23/2/2011 16:31

Well, Seymour Pierce put out an internal note to coincide with the update the other day. I am surprised the price has not moved higher given the favourable statement from the company, comfortably beating expectations.

Separately, Arden raised the stock recently as well.

dyor.

[greedy rooster] 21/2/2011 15:16

I reckon there is an order in which is being filled by Seymour Pierce.

[divinausa1] 21/2/2011 14:22

plenty of buys today little selling...

[darcon] 19/2/2011 19:52

Perhaps worth noting that the Directors are strongly incentivised with their options to get the leverage ratio down to 3.5:1 or less. As the interims note: "It is not anticipated that any options
will be exercised until at least June 2011 as the options do not vest until that time and the share options can only be exercised once the
Company achieves a leverage ratio of 3.5:1 or less, the same ratio as is required for dividend distributions to be recommenced."

The options have an exercise price of 40pence. So taking the 2009AR figures we can calculate the value of what that incentive is worth to each of them based on an 80 pence share price and the number of options they each hold:

J. Akers - CEO - 1,710,000 x (80p less 40p exercise) = £684,000
M. La Manna - 660,000 = £264,000
V. Wicks - 180,000 = £72,000
G. Chesterton - 200,000 = £80,000
M. Taylor - 180,000 = £72,000
E. Billig - 180,000 = £72,000
P. Gartside - 180,000 = £72,000

And for each 40p rise in the share price their gains are doubled.

That also means a stronger incentive for the directors to support a takeover than last time when their options were at a higher exercise price.

[darcon] 19/2/2011 19:16

Net Debt:

As at 31 Dec 2005: £179,439,000 (source: 2006 AR)
As at 31 Dec 2006: £119,578,000 (source: 2006 AR)
As at 31 Dec 2007: £120,199,000 (source: 2008 AR)
As at 31 Dec 2008: £158,165,000 (source: 2009 AR)
As at 31 Dec 2009: £148,030,000 (source: 2009 AR)
As at 31 Dec 2010: expected to be £10m lower (source: latest trading update)

The fall in net debt in 2006 was as a result of repayment of a £63.5m bridging loan for ITM Group acquisition. The rise in net debt in 2008 was explained by the rise in the euro. The fall in net debt in 2009 was explained by the fall in the euro. Most of TSW's debt is in euros.

The 2010 fall in net debt figure, despite the substantial increase in business, may therefore in part be explained by a fall in the euro relative to pound sterling as a fall in the euro relative to £ will have a positive impact on net debt. Below are the rates taken from the ARs.

Euro/£ exchange rate:

2007
Average: 1.462
Closing: 1.357

2008:
Average: 1.260
Closing: 1.027

2009:
Average: 1.123
Closing: 1.111

2010:
Average: [?]
Closing: [?]

So in conclusion we require more information about the reasons for the fall in the net debt figure - is it because of favourable foreign exchange movements, reduction in debt or rise in cash?

[alphahunter] 19/2/2011 00:21

A bit off the wall, but hey, tomorrow is half-term and 12 hours' drive off to some snow hopefully. So here we go:

John Deere said that the recovery in Europe was gathering pace, and nothing beat the French in Europe when it comes to producing wheat and other soft commodities. So I checked that website for an other investment (spraying machines: EXE.PA) and googletranslated the link.

Essentially tractor registrations have turned the corner and growing again with an slight acceleration y-o-y.

The guy in the left picture seems happy looking at the chart, although I think January seems down by the look of thing (lol)! There was cryptic RNS from TSW about Agco in Beauvais about 18 months ago, but I never followed that up, e.g I'm not sure about the link except that Agco is a client of TSW.

By the way, Beauvais is Ryanair's "Paris" airport, which is in the middle of nowhere.

Ok dockey. Let's hope the stock will behave itself while I'm away.






Same, with Google Translate:

[greedy rooster] 17/2/2011 09:08

Seymour Pierce off the offer - looks like quiet progress can be made.

[alphahunter] 17/2/2011 08:44

Darcon / Darconius

Like you I take a rather fundamental approach (say 6 - 24 months), witness the postings on the iii board (there: as alphatracker).
But that's also why I'm interested in order-book savvy traders who may express an opinion or give an opinion in an area which I'm not very familiar with.
My background is European equities - where shares trade on AT with no market makers involved.

Divinausa1,

Yes I agree, a lot of weird live pricing, but the data looked OK when I downloaded them on excel and were consistent with Digitalook.
I think it's time for me to activate the L2 DMA-CFD package from IG Index to get a grip on trade execution (lol).

Anyway the questions remain...
Cheers

[darcon] 16/2/2011 18:30

BHP Billiton also announced an $80bn 5-year investment programme.

No point in getting worked up about short-term games by MMs. Price will sort itself out eventually if TSW continues to recover and grow at current pace

[divinausa1] 16/2/2011 14:14

must be. No reaction to great trading update and broker buys

[smicker] 15/2/2011 13:57

A determined seller here?

[alphahunter] 15/2/2011 09:39

Simon, thanks for posting earlier a snapshot from Arden. It is always appreciated when contributors who receives broker research put a couple of bullet points on the board.

[simon gordon] 15/2/2011 07:43

Indie - 15/2/11:

Titan Europe

Our view: buy

Share price: 83p (+4.75p)

When we last looked at the wheel-and undercarriage maker, Titan Europe, in the recessionary chill of 2009, we advised a swift sell. Now is the time to go back in. Hot on the heels of its last upbeat trading statement, in September, the group issued another yesterday, confirming its rosy view of the outlook with full-year forecasts of revenues at £355m, some £7m ahead of market predictions.

Last year has seen a boost in all market sectors, the company says, pushing revenues up by 44 per cent in the agriculture business, 61 per cent in the construction division and a whopping 104 per cent in mining.

Net debt is down by around £10m, despite the boost to business activity. And the group is looking to further expand manufacturing facilities in Turkey, Brazil and China.

But the market has not really woken up: Titan's shares are trading on a very modest 7.4 times forecast 2011 earnings, The stock shot up 14 per cent in January, before falling back again. The dip is temporary. Make the most of it. Steam in and buy.

[greenroom78] 15/2/2011 07:11

Alphahunter - thanks. That makes a lot of sense. With debt already moving in the right direction the increased revenue (and profit) should see that accelerate.

[alphahunter] 14/2/2011 22:52

Greenroom78,

I haven't looked at the accounts recently, but from memory from the 2009 accounts


1) the bulk of the debt is provided by Unicredit in relation to the purchase of the Italian business. I believe this is what they mean by principal debt, as opposed to working capital financial facilities, credit lines, etc,...

2) The Unicredit debt was rescheduled in May, €110m may refer to the capital proper and not the deferred interest.

Again, from memory, but I'm pretty sure that 1) & 2) are pointing in the right direction, if not, let me know and I'll have a dig in the 2009 accounts.

[greenroom78] 14/2/2011 22:23

Thanks Simon,

It is clear from the recent news that debt is coming down, I am struggling to define what they mean by principal debt being EU110m with Net Debt at £127m.

Any ideas?

[simon gordon] 14/2/2011 19:29

Arden - 14/2/11:

2010
PBT - 3.7m
EPS - 3.3p
Net Debt - 139m

2011
PBT - 13.4m
EPS - 11.6p
Net Debt - 127m

"Raw materials have been a concern given the rapid rise in steel prices being seen at present with further increases expected in the spring. The company was impacted in 08 but since then management has renegotiated many of the contracts in the undercarriage business and hence expect now to pass through these increases. Arguably the magnitude of the increases is positive as smaller increases tend to be more difficult to pass through."

[alun rm] 14/2/2011 15:22

I doubled my holding today, following the positive trading update. Hopefully the broker notes will put some momentum under the share as they come out in the coming days.

[nellie1973] 14/2/2011 14:26

broker upgrade to buy

[smicker] 14/2/2011 14:23

DAK what is the calculation used for the leverage ratio. What is it now?

[greenroom78] 14/2/2011 12:44

Hi, this flagged up on my radar a few days back and is one I am researching. Like the looks so far and today's rns is upbeat, the one area I am struggling with is the amount of debt the company has.

I assume the figure quoted on the ADVFN financials page is high, looking at the half year report that suggests NET debt GBP124m (June 30th 2010) and today's RNS refers to EU110m PRINCIPAL debt.

Can anybody help me out with this?
TIA