Tirupati Graphite Share Discussion Threads

[flc] 01/11/2023 10:07

Yep, just a bit of top slicing going on.

[topazfrenzy] 01/11/2023 10:07

All time highs were at 150p not so long ago and the situation now is way more favourable for graphite production outside China

It's a no brainer!

[topazfrenzy] 01/11/2023 10:01

Dip buyers will step back in soon enough ... 50p is the next stop for TGR

[richie1218] 01/11/2023 08:56

A bit of a tree shake this morning, profit taking by some investors no doubt,
I'll hold on to mine, in the short/medium term TG is only going to go one way imo.
gla

[flc] 01/11/2023 08:29

That was pretty much covered in the H1 update a couple of weeks ago but I'm sure there's a steady flow of RNS"s on the way.

[pwal] 01/11/2023 08:14

Next move on news.Q2 next week IMHO

[apotheki] 31/10/2023 13:50

SP Angel Graphite Market Report - Return to a Natural Flake Future

Natural graphite prices and demand should continue to grow due to:

Continued penetration of flake graphite-based anode products in EVs;

Western automakers favouring natural graphite products over more carbon-intensive synthetic products;

China’s diminishing domestic mine supply, due to grade depletion and environmental concerns.

China’s decision to ban natural graphite product exports from the 1st of December 2023 is expected to trigger a renewed urgency for Automakers and OEMs to source alternative supply of natural, mined flake graphite.

China dominates graphite supply, producing 79% of total world graphite production, split between 24% synthetic and 76% natural flake. It also dominates the downstream graphite refining sector, processing 90% of graphite used for anode materials. C.500kt of battery-related graphite products are expected to be impacted by the December ban.

EVs require between 50-100kg of graphite materials. Graphite use in batteries has increased by 250% since 2018. Downstream graphite demand trends remain positive, with EV sales growing 40% yoy in 3Q23, alongside anode production which accelerated at the same pace.

We hold the view that China has been flooding the market with unsustainably cheap synthetic graphite to rebuild anode material supplies before the winter according to market sources. Flake prices have fallen 25.5% ytd to between $540-$635/t. We expect China’s export ban to reverse this trend, triggering an increase in natural flake graphite prices outside China

In this report we provide a peer analysis of several more developed graphite projects with Western backing available to investors seeking public company exposure. We also provide a summary of recent market dynamics, alongside longer-term supply/demand fundamentals.

PLEASE NOTE: copy of the full share price Angel report on the Graphite market is subscription only

[topazfrenzy] 31/10/2023 13:45

Every dip is being bought, some buyers in the background munching away ...

50p on the way before you know it!

[flc] 31/10/2023 12:50

At the very least I would expect to see another tranche of hefty prepayments coming through to secure supply and with anticipated increases in the cost of graphite then discounting won't be too much of an issue.

[apotheki] 31/10/2023 11:25

Yes potentially

[pwal] 31/10/2023 11:16

Will we ever see the likes of 1.50 again?

[apotheki] 31/10/2023 11:05

China has threatened to ban the export of high-grade graphite outside China from 1st December causing some consternation to new European and US Gigafactories and EV automotive manufacturers.

We already know of one German automotive company which has asked to restart talks with a graphite miner and we feel sure some desperate calls are being made.

The idea of China continuing to sell >90% of the world’s battery grade graphite to the world at subsidised cost was simply too good to be true.

While we feel sure the ban will be referred to the WTO, the disruption to US and European EV manufacturers could be substantial.

We do not know how much Li-ion grade graphite has been stocked but, in a world of just-in-time supply chains, we suspect it’s not a lot.

SP Angel

[apotheki] 31/10/2023 10:55

From a chartist perspective it does rather appear that TGR have potentially broken the recent down trend and on more than decent volume [which is useful from a technical point of view]

[richie1218] 31/10/2023 09:41

I can imagine that EV Battery companies will be looking to invest in companies like TG to garner influence in future supplies or even take them over completely... with a bit of luck :-)

[flc] 31/10/2023 09:35

Would tend to agree that 50p and a market cap of c£50m would be about right for where they are at the moment.

[topazfrenzy] 31/10/2023 08:55

It's re-rating .. expect 50p before long

[pwal] 31/10/2023 08:29

Another move up today please.

[clabburn] 30/10/2023 14:50

Congratulations to those who bought at the bottom. Still a long way back for me but its good to see sentiment changing around the company. Its interesting as the original thesis for investing in this company has been consistent throughout: the world will need a lot of graphite in the years ahead and there are very few companies outside of China able to serve this need. Short term, it should strengthen the management's ability to access working capital as they expand operations and (hopefully) reach cash flow positive in the next 6 months or so. From there you would hope that the company gets re-rated and starts to regain ground on their previous valuation.

[pwal] 30/10/2023 14:36

Restrictions happen from 1st Dec I think.

[flc] 30/10/2023 11:11

A strong possibility I would say :-)

[topazfrenzy] 30/10/2023 10:48

30p is a possibility this week

[richie1218] 29/10/2023 22:16

hxxps://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/china-exposes-eu-and-us-vulnerabilities-in-graphite

We are unsurprised by China’s announcement last week of a pending imposition of temporary export controls on several synthetic and natural graphite products. It was inevitable that Chinese authorities would react to actions by both the United States and EU governments to target China’s EV and battery sector dominance over the past year through the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the EU Critical Raw Minerals Act and, more recently, the EU’s antisubsidy investigations into imports of Chinese EVs. The US and EU have stated that these initiatives are critical to reducing the national security risks of excessive dependence on China, while China has equally now stated that the graphite export permits are necessary to protect its national security and interests.

China’s target of choice – graphite – is also unsurprising. While the US and EU have focused primarily on securing cathode active material supplies in recent years, focus on anode active material supply has been lacking, a vulnerability that Fastmarkets has highlighted repeatedly. The lack of focus by non-Chinese markets on graphite has been a strategic error. Ex-China investors have largely ignored graphite because it represents only 10% of lithium-ion battery costs, however, graphite comprises approximately 50% of the weight of the battery, rendering it critical in the lithium-ion battery raw materials supply chain. China is exposing this oversight and resulting weakness.

While fledgling ex-China graphite projects have largely struggled to secure adequate investment and are struggling with delays and extended material qualification times, China has moved to increase its dominance in graphite supply over the past year, particularly in synthetic graphite supply. China is moving both to expose EU and US vulnerability in graphite supply and to expose ex-China’s direct and indirect dependence on Chinese graphite. While US automakers engage in joint ventures with South Korean and Japanese battery makers, which are free trade agreement partners, both South Korea and Japan are also largely dependent on Chinese graphite production for their active anode material.

In our view, Chinese actions will also expose flaws in the US IRA’s ambitious targets for local content values in both battery components, including anodes, and critical minerals, including graphite, in the coming years. We have doubts about the feasibility of these initiatives to the extent proposed and in the indicated time frame. Without a dramatic change in current graphite market conditions, the acceptance of graphite anode material that has been at least partially processed in China, or a significant pullback in US EV production targets, we remain concerned that the targets will not be achieved.

China’s action on graphite export controls may be just what the market needs to spur global graphite prices and investment forward. Clearly, in the near term, we expect the announcement to trigger a much-needed reversal in graphite pricing, benefiting Chinese producers initially, and probably responsible for China’s reasoning in acting now. Chinese graphite prices have been in a downward spiral for the past year, with prices at or below production costs, and upward impetus is needed to protect the domestic supply chain.

Triggered by the renewed sense of urgency, demand for Chinese graphite exports will surge in the coming weeks, with consumers in South Korea, Japan, the US and Europe expected to seek to secure material before export regulations go into effect on December 1. Pricing gains are forecast to continue into December/January reflecting both stockpiling activity and production cutbacks during the Chinese winter months. Higher prices and a renewed sense of panic regarding future graphite supply availability should encourage increased investment and interest in graphite projects, which would in turn aid the US and EU with achieving their goals of localization of supply and diversification of supply away from the current heavy dependence on China.

For now, Fastmarkets’ assessments of graphite prices are unchanged, with the latest pricing session occurring the day before the Chinese government’s announcement on the new temporary export controls. Fastmarkets assessed graphite flake 94% C, -100 mesh, fob China at $530-604 per tonne and graphite spherical 99.95% C, 15 microns, fob China at $2,000-2,200 per tonne, both unchanged from the prior week. Fastmarkets assessed graphite flake 94% C, -100 mesh, cif Europe at $600-620 per tonne, also stable from the previous week. Given the latest market developments, we expect to see prices trend stable to higher in the coming weeks, in line with our previous forecasts.

[flc] 29/10/2023 17:08

With Moz coming online and Madagascar ramping up, couldn't have been better timed by TGr. Expect news of deals over the coming months.

[richie1218] 29/10/2023 16:43

New China rules on graphite hit electric car industry.
Mail on Sunday - 29 October 2023

The price of electric vehicles could shoot up after China threatened to curb exports of one of the key raw materials used to make batteries, experts have warned.

China is the largest producer and exporter of graphite, which is used in almost all electric cars. This pure form of carbon is used to make lithium ion batteries.

Last week the country announced that from December 1 it would require export permits for some graphite products to protect national security.

This is leading to a scramble to secure supplies – which risks pushing up prices – amid fears that more rules could be brought in, crippling the ability of car battery factories outside China to continue production.