Tinopolis Share Discussion Threads

[chipperfrd] 30/6/2012 13:02

Australia Oriental Minerals appears to be just a holder of Exploration rights and has done no meaningful business over 2011 apart from sell out of a variety of JVs.

I have decided to remove it from further consideration as an investment.

[chipperfrd] 30/6/2012 12:46

First impressions: Celeste Copper Corp (tsx.v:C)

SP - C$0.09
Shares - 95.338m
MktCap - C$8.58m
Cash - C$0.25m

Project - South Crofty + additional areas
Location - England
Minerals - Sn & Cu
Resource - 1.331mt
Grade Sn - 0.44%
Grade Cu - 1.08%
Ownership - 19% (earning 25%, then option to 60%, then 100%)
Attrib Sn - 1,113t
Attrib Cu - 2,731t
Status - resource definition (study due in 4Q12)

Conclusions:
Celeste is attempting to earn ownership of 150km2 land package owned by Cornish Minerals by expensing £4.67m for 25%, then another £16.33m to take it up to 60%.
So far it has earned 19% and although extending the earn-in deadline to 30th June 2012 it appears it may not have been able to raise further cash!!!

Hence, although it needs to remain as part of the stocks covered here I have serious doubts as to the investment case.

As far as I can see the current owners of the South Crofty land package are unlisted companies Cornish Minerals and Western United Mines - with further division across a number of other companies.

Worth watching (especially because of the UK interest) but difficult to see a clear investment case without significant risk at present.

[chipperfrd] 30/6/2012 11:12

First impressions: Venture Minerals (asx:VMS)

SP - A$0.285
Shares - 221m
MktCap - A$63m
Cash - A$15m

Main project Mt Lindsay
Minerals - Sn & Wo (I like that mix!)
Location - Tasmania
Resource - 43mt
Sn grade - 0.2% (low!)
Wo grade - 0.1%
Attrib Sn - 86kt
Attrib Wo - 43kt
Status - PFS done, BFS ongoing
Target production - 2014

PFS summary:
CAPEX - $162m (but includes an APT plant for the Wo)
LoM - 8 years (based on indicated resource only)
Revenue (base case) over LoM - $1270m
Net cash over LoM - $570m

However, in addition, Venture have a couple of Fe DSO projects which can be accelerated into production at low CAPEX (c. $7m for the first) and which might feasibly be in production as early as 1H13.
Clearly, having an early cash flow from DSO will greatly assist financing the Sn/Wo project and may make Venture a real investment contender.
But Sn grades are low which must make their margins very sensitive to Sn prices going forward.
Worth watching to see if the highly eco-sensitive Tasmanian authorities put up any barriers to the Fe DSO proposition. Although they have already granted a mining lease - which looks promising.
So far I am rather liking the look of Venture as a speculation on Sn/Wo supply/demand constraints going forward.

[chipperfrd] 30/6/2012 10:41

First impressions: Stellar Resources (asx:SRZ)

SP - A$0.08
Shares - 223.4m (Gippsland hold c. 21%)
MktCap - A$17.87m
Cash - A$6m

Main project - Heemskirk Tin
Location - Tasmania
Resource - 4.36mt
Sn Grade - 1.1%
Attrib Sn - 47.96kt
Status - PFS imminent, BFS due April 2013
Target production - 2015

Scoping Study summary:
LoM - 7.6 years
ROM grade - 0.93% Sn
Treatment rate - 600ktpa
Recovery - 70%
Sn in concentrate - 3,900tpa
OP cash cost - $12,780/t Sn
CAPEX - $108m

Conclusions:
The right district. Next to Renison
Pure Sn development
Usual proviso's apply regarding such a minnow managing to finance to BFS and then onto a CAPEX of c. $108m (likely to increase I suspect!)
I already hold Gippsland shares (for my sins!!!) so I may well just settle for that rather intangible exposure - although I would much rather be just holding Stellar shares.
Well worth keeping it in the table here.
It may also be subject to M&A as it looks very vulnerable in these market conditions

[chipperfrd] 30/6/2012 10:10

First impressions: Kasbah Resources (asx:KAS)

SP - A$0.175
Shares - 395.412m
MktCap - A$69.2m

Project - Achmmach
Location - Morocco
Resource - 14.6mt
Sn grade - 0.9%
Ownership - 80% (20% acquired by Toyota Tsusho for c. A$28m conditional)
Attrib Sn - 105kt
Target production - 2014
Status - PFS done, DFS due in 4Q13
Cash - A$22m (so should be able to fund through to DFS)

PFS summary:
CAPEX - $167m
OPEX - $65.76/t ore
OP margin - $29.2/t ore
Annual CF - $129m (at $21.9k Sn price)
C3 OP costs - $12,683/t of Sn in concentrate
Throughput - 1mtpa
Recovery - 74%
Sn pa - 6,880t Sn in concentrate

Conclusion:
Looks promising!
The Toyota interest is significant (IMO)
Equity component of CAPEX may well be largely covered by remaining 80% via further off-take arrangements.
I do not know much about Morocco as an investment destination so will require further investigation. But at least the weather should be no barrier to production!

[chipperfrd] 30/6/2012 09:54

First impressions: Alphamin Resources (tsx.v:AFM)

SP - C$0.67
Shares - 63.344m
MktCap - C$45.79m

Project - Bisie Tin
Location - DRC !!!!

Focus is purely Sn
Extremely high grade exploration results - but no resource yet
Ownership - 70%

Will keep on watch

[chipperfrd] 30/6/2012 09:47

First impressions: Adex Mining (tsx.v:ADE)

SP - C$0.075
Shares - 177.2m
MktCap - C$13.29m

Sn project is North Zone
Minerals - Sn, In, Zn
Location - Canada
Resource - 15.2mt
Sn grade - 0.38% (bit on the low side!)
Target production - ???
Attrib Sn - 57.76kt
Attrib Zn - 130.72kt
Attrib In - 972,800 kg

However, due largely to the interests of a Chinese shareholder they appear to be focussing on their Fire Tower Zone project.
Minerals - Wo, Mo
Location - Canada
Resource - 13.489mt
Grade Wo - 0.33%
Grade Mo - 0.21%
Attrib Wo - 44.5kt
Attrib Mo - 28.3kt
Target production - 2015

Gross metal value comparisons:
Wo ~ 39%, Sn ~ 24%, Mo ~ 21%, In ~ 11%, Zn ~ 5%

Conclusion:
I am interested in both Sn and Wo (and In and Mo are pretty desirable too!!)
But need to dig deeper into the earnings split they may arise because of the heavy Chinese interest in FTZ and how this may detract from the investment potential of this stock.
I am also primarily interested in company's with a pure focus on Tin - which is not the case here.
So I will leave the stock in the (eventual) comparison table and watch events unfold.

[chipperfrd] 30/6/2012 09:31

First impressions: Consolidated Tin Mines Ltd (asx:CSD)

Project - Mt Garnet
Ownership - 100%
Pure Sn focus
Grade 0.6% Sn
Sn metal - 43.8kt
Production - possibly 2014

Scoping study results:
Throughput - 700ktpa
LoM - 7.5 years
Sn production - 3-5ktpa
Prod costs - A$11.25k/t Sn
Recovery - 70% Sn

SP ~ A$0.045
Shares issued - 182.2m (with 61.7m options @ A$0.20)
MktCap - A$8.2m

Looks a contender for consideration but still has a very long way to go and will likely struggle to raise cash for PFS/BFS/construction, et al.

2014 for production looks highly unlikely (to me) given the state of the market for financing. Perhaps they will fall to M&A long before they can reach project development.

I will leave them as part of this thread and watch developments.

[chipperfrd] 30/6/2012 09:19

First impressions: Metals X (asx:MLX)

5 projects
Flagship project is Renison Tin which is in production
Ownership is 50% - attributable Sn is c. 64kt of metal @ 1.77% Sn
They also have 50% of Rentails which has Sn grade of 0.44%
Attrib Sn = 41.7kt

As a Tin producer it would appear logical to consider them a high priority for consideration as an investment. However, they now appear to be focussing on their very large Nickel project (Wingella) which is likely to use HPAL processing (ie highly capital intensive) and therefore this diminishes their appeal (to me) as a Tin investment.

On a simple gross metal value comparison their attrib Tin portfolio now only makes up 5.6% of the company's metal assets.
Hence I will keep them on the list but consider them negatively for the purposes of this thread.

[chipperfrd] 30/6/2012 09:07

First impressions: Eurotin (tsx.v:TIN)

2 projects, Oropesa & Santa Maria in Spain.
Encouraging drilling but no resource defined as yet.
Hence, difficult to estimate value or timescales until first production.
Will keep on watch list.

[chipperfrd] 30/6/2012 08:56

YTC resources Ltd: Appears to have re-focussed purely onto it's gold and copper projects - so I will delete from header and ignore for the purposes of this Tin thread.

[chipperfrd] 29/6/2012 13:00

Thanks BL - very useful :-)

I will include those as well for an initial sift.

[chipperfrd] 29/6/2012 12:39

I am attempting to work through all the tin producers/developers/explorers that I can locate and to then try and build some form of comparison table to try and help differentiate those which might prove to be decent investments over the medium/long term.

Any suggestions, analysis, comments, etc, will be very much welcomed.
Chip

[bluelynx] 29/6/2012 12:37

chip

There is a few Tungsten miners on the link below which do not apear on your list:

[chipperfrd] 29/6/2012 12:31

BL,
I have created the bare bones for a TIN comparison thread here:



I have put your list in the header for starters and will add some more from my short list. I will delete them from the header if they fail to make the grade as a potential Tin developer/miner.
Chip

[chipperfrd] 29/6/2012 12:25

The purpose of this thread is to attempt to find the most attractive Tin (and possibly Tin/Tungsten) stocks available for investment over c. 5 years plus, given the high probability of supply shortages leading to higher metal prices.

The tables below will be updated periodically when events dictate.

Stock ............ ......... ... ... .
Code ............. asx:VMS ......... asx:KAS .. asx:SRZ ... asx:MLX .. asx:CSD
MktCap($m) ....... 63.0 ............ 69.2 ..... 17.9 ...... 191.1 .... 8.2
Project .......... Mt Lindsay ...... Achmmach . Heemskirk . Renison .. Mt Garnet
Country .......... Tasmania ........ Morocco .. Tasmania .. Tasmania . Australia
Res (mt) ......... 43.0 ............ 14.6 ..... 4.4 ....... 7.3 ...... 7.3
Minerals ......... Sn/Wo ........... Sn ....... Sn ........ Sn ....... Sn
Grade Sn ......... 0.20% ........... 0.90% .... 1.10% ..... 1.77% .... 0.60%
Attrib ........... 100% ............ 80% ...... 100% ...... 50% ...... 100%
Attrib Val/t ($) . 77 .............. 133 ...... 204 ....... 164 ...... 111
Production ....... 2014 ............ 2014 ..... 2015 ...... Yes ...... 2014

Project 2 ........ Livingstone DSO . ........ . St Dizier . Rentails . ............
Res (mt) ......... 4.4 ............. ........ . 0.0 ....... 19.0 ..... ............
Minerals ......... Fe .............. ........ . Sn ........ Sn/Cu .... ............
Grade ............ 57% ............. ........ . 0.0% ...... 0.44% .... ............
Attrib ........... 100% ............ ........ . 100% ...... 50% ...... ............
Attrib Val/t ($) . 135 ............. ........ . 0 ......... 48 ....... ............
Production ....... 2013 ............ ........ . ? ......... 2014? .... ............
===================================================================================

Stock ............ ....... ...... ..... ..
Code ............. tsx-v:ADE .. tsx.v:C ...... tsx.v:TIN ... tsx-v:AFM . unlisted
MktCap($m) ....... 13.3 ....... 8.6 .......... 19.5 ........ 45.8 ...... 0.0
Project .......... North Zone . South Crofty . Oropesa ..... Bisie Tin . Taronga
Country .......... Canada ..... England ...... Spain ....... DRC ....... Australia
Res (mt) ......... 15.2 ....... 1.3 .......... 0.0 ......... 0.0 ....... 46.8
Minerals ......... Sn/In/Zn ... Sn/Cu ........ Sn .......... Sn ........ Sn
Grade Sn ......... 0.38% ...... 0.44% ........ 0.00% ....... 0.00% ..... 0.15%
Attrib ........... 100% ....... 19% .......... 96% ......... 70% ....... 100%
Attrib Val/t ($) . 119 ........ 31 ........... 0 ........... 0 ......... 27
Production ....... ??? ........ 2015? ........ ?? .......... ?? ........ ??

Project 2 ........ Fire Tower . ............ . Santa Maria . ......... . ...........
Res (mt) ......... 13.5 ....... ............ . 0.0 ......... ......... . ...........
Minerals ......... Wo/Mo ...... ............ . Sn .......... ......... . ...........
Grade ............ 0.33% ...... ............ . 0.00% ....... ......... . ...........
Attrib ........... 100% ....... ............ . 60% ......... ......... . ...........
Attrib Val/t ($) . 203 ........ ............ . 0 ........... ......... . ...........
Production ....... 2015 ....... ............ . ?? .......... ......... . ...........
===================================================================================

Stock ............ ...
Code ............. asx:OUM ... asx:GIP
MktCap($m) ....... 1.6 ....... 8.8
Project .......... Various ... Abu Dabab
Country .......... Australia . Egypt
Res (mt) ......... 0.0 ....... 0.2
Minerals ......... Sn ........ Sn
Grade Sn ......... 0.00% ..... ?
Attrib ........... 100% ...... 100%
Attrib Val/t ($) . 0 ......... ?
Production ....... ?? ........ Jun-12

Project 2 ........ ......... . Heemskirk
Res (mt) ......... ......... . 4.4
Minerals ......... ......... . Sn
Grade ............ ......... . 1.10%
Attrib ........... ......... . 19%
Attrib Val/t ($) . ......... . 40
Production ....... ......... . 2015
===================================================================================

[chipperfrd] 29/6/2012 12:19

Thanks BlueLynx, I do have them all on my list. Currently working on Kasbah!

I need to figure out how best to display comparative metrics as they are proving a diverse bunch so far.

I have ploughed through Eurotin, MetalsX, Consolidated, Adex, Alphamin & Kasbah.

I also have Stellar, Magna, Anchor, Planet, Orion, Clancy, Venture, Gippsland, Oriental, YTC, Malachite, Paradigm, Carpentaria, Taronga, Outback, to work through. But some of those already look unlikely to make the first cut.

I will probably also include Wolf even though, like Adex, it is primarily a Tungsten project. Frankly, I like Tungsten as well, so would be inclined to favour Wo + Sn projects !!

I really appreciate your input and interest :-)

I will probably try and make an early stab at building a comparison thread so that all the possible stocks are listed at an early stage - to avoid replication of effort.

All the best
Chip

[bluelynx] 29/6/2012 11:18

Chip

I had a search and found these hope they help.


Kasbah resources Ltd ASX : KAS

YTC resources Ltd ASX : YTC

Venture Minerals ASX : VMS

Alphaminr Resources Corp TSXV : AFM

Carpentaria Exploration ASX : CAP

Adex Mining TSXV : ADE

[chipperfrd] 27/6/2012 13:17

Guys, I am thinking of putting together a Tin comparison thread.

I have around 23 stocks (mainly Australian-listed) for starters but I expect to thin out several of the more speculative ones as I build the dB.

It would greatly help if you can point me to other possibilities (perhaps Canadian-listed). Just a company name and code would be fine for starters.

I already know about Eurotin, Consolidated Tin & Metals X.

Cheers in advance
Chip

[chipperfrd] 18/6/2012 10:45

Part 2 of the Byron Green Book pp110-121 is devoted to Sn & Ag supply/demand issues and is well worth a read IMO.



One could challenge some of their assumptions to a degree but they do appear to have strong arguments for price increases going forward.

I already hold a few of the stocks they mention but must admit that I will seriously consider making more additions - particularly in Sn-related opportunities.
Chip

[pecker1] 04/6/2012 16:01

Worth reading:




"Peter Miller, President & CEO, comments: "Geological interpretation of our recent drill results has added further evidence to our belief that the Oropesa deposit is part of a major new Tin District, probably the first to be discovered in over 40 years. So while the development of an open pit mine here obviously remains our first priority in providing value to our shareholders, we are also keen to determine the district's tin potential."

A potential new tin district, all for CAN$35m - the investing world has truly gone mad. Or maybe it's me that's barking but need to have something to be cheerful about in these dire mining markets!

[pecker1] 24/4/2012 12:12

Byron Capital analysis very bullish for tin (and silver):

[pecker1] 18/4/2012 10:11

Dave,

Re poker game, best to keep 'em guessing!

Not that I'm the retiring type, but my retirement banker is First Majestic or, perhaps I should say, was,until recently.But hanging in there - if wrong on silver maybe donning a tin hat will help.