The Sage Share Discussion Threads

[lyntwyn] 14/4/2008 15:08

Seymour Pierce have come out with a 'sell' note today- not sure if its a reiteration, nor have I seen any target price

[liquidkid] 14/4/2008 13:26

Yes, but those earnings estimates for the year end 2008 have come down to about 14.18p from 16.01p a year ago - source: digital look. That's still a forward PE of 14 So I suppose you could say that the rate of profits are decreasing?
This from the sell side...
"The fiscal 2009 numbers still have further to fall," noted Evolution Securities analyst Roger Phillips. "Sage's U.S. business is strategically challenged and focused on the U.S. small and medium enterprise market, the worst hit of any segment targeted by U.K. software houses," he added.
``We are being a little more cautious in our outlook for the Americas due to the broader tempered economic outlook,'' Cazenove analyst Stacy Pollard, who rates the company ``outperform,'' wrote in a note today. ``We believe Sage Healthcare is still facing zero revenue growth and flat margins.''

[rmillaree] 14/4/2008 12:35

I liquid

I haven't looked in detail but TDW have full year estimates of £261 million pre tax and EPS of 14.3p this is an increase over the previous year (Note sure how much as it depends whether they are talking about adjusted figures or not)
TDW also have very little change on 3 month broker forecasts, although i do not know how accurate/ up to date these are.

First half profits up £8 million per your post above

Not sure how this translates to "flat profits" unless you are referring to LFL figures.

I am more than happy that sage buy their way to increased profits to some degree as they have a a good track record in this regard. Although i have to admit that the larger the company gets the more difficult it may become to find value adding additions.

[liquidkid] 14/4/2008 09:07

Accounting software provider Sage Group said Monday that it's financial
results for the six months to March 31 are expected to meet analyst forecasts. On average, analysts are expecting 129 million pounds of pretax profit and revenue of 617 million pounds for the half-year, according to an average of 11 analysts supplied by the company. -

Last year at the interims
* Revenues increased by 34%* to £574.7m (H1 2006: £429.7m*)
* Adjusted pre-tax profit^ rose by 12% to £121.8m (H1 2006: £108.9m)

So as at today there's more revenue (on acquisitions) and flat profits. The average analyst forecast has come down recently.
I guess this justifys the low share price.

[don one] 11/4/2008 14:42

y the rise

[lyntwyn] 08/4/2008 16:21

y indeed! I suspect someone has issued a cautionary note ahead of next week.

The Sage Group plc will announce a brief period-end trading update for the half year to 31 March 2008 on Monday, 14 April 2008.

[don one] 08/4/2008 16:08

y the big fall

[lyntwyn] 04/4/2008 09:02

SGE definately not flavour of the month!

03.04.08 :-3.25, (202.25) Sage, LogicaCMG, SAP and Capgemini shares were all lower in morning deals as Deutsche Bank said newsflow in the IT Services sector is weakening, downgrading its rating on Sage to 'hold' from 'buy' and cutting its target prices on the quartet. The broker said today's forecast downgrades come as a pre-emptive strike amid macro concerns about sector demand and ahead of upcoming earnings for the sector. While Deutsche Bank said recent results from sector bellwethers Oracle and Accenture were mixed, but said its analysis indicates a softening of management tone over the past four months across a number of sector-related plays. It said confidence is ebbing and says the outlook looks set to erode further in the second half of 2008. To reflect this changing tone and macro-fears, the broker cut its forecasts on Capgemini, SAP, Logica and Sage, saying it now sits just below consensus for 2009 on all these stocks. It cut its target on Sage to 235 pence from 305 pence and downgraded its rating because of headwinds in the US. It cut its target for CapGemini to 39 euros from 54 eur, having cut its 2009 EPS forecast by 9 percent. It repeated its 'buy' on Atos Origin which it said is performing well. It expects this to continue into the second quarter of 2008 and said the high proportion of outsourcing and a recent relatively upbeat meeting area also reasons for its optimism. It also repeated its 'buy' rating on Temenos and reiterated its 36 euros target, which suggests 38 percent upside

[lyntwyn] 02/4/2008 08:25

Notification of period-end trading update


The Sage Group plc will announce a brief period-end trading update for the half
year to 31 March 2008 on Monday, 14 April 2008.

[don one] 01/4/2008 11:55

on there way up

[lyntwyn] 31/3/2008 11:31

Sage acquires UK construction software company Tekton

The Sage Group plc ('Sage'), a leading global supplier of business management
software and services, announces the acquisition of Hallco 1390 Ltd ('Hallco')
from its shareholders for an enterprise value of £21 million, paid in cash.
Hallco's revenues for the half year to December 2007 were £4.5m, based on
unaudited management accounts.

Hallco 1390 Ltd trades under the name of Tekton Group Ltd ('Tekton') and
provides specialist construction software, implementation and support services
to more than 230 companies throughout the UK & Ireland. With high levels of
localised legislation and compliance in the construction industry, companies
require specific local knowledge and expertise from their software suppliers,
which companies such as Sage and Tekton are able to provide.

Paul Walker, Chief Executive, said, 'Tekton complements Sage's existing
expertise in the construction industry and will broaden our portfolio of
solutions for medium-sized customers. The acquisition of Tekton strengthens
Sage's leading market position in this sector and completes our range of
construction solutions, from small companies through to larger customers in the
mid-market.'

[maddox] 31/3/2008 09:22

Hi Guys,

Well I have to say I never thought we would see 186p again, quite remarkable. For some reason sentiment always seems to weigh heavily on Sage despite all the evidence of its robustness. Clearly, steps have been taken to sort out the US management issues but I guess this is the main cause.

Whether or not the US situation is under control I must say I would prefer to see Sage look away from the US for further investment and position itself more globally - its a big world out there.

Regards, Maddox

[optomist4] 24/3/2008 17:43

looks like a nice bounce tomorrow 2.00 + perhaps based on a strong DOW and very strong Nasdaq

imho

[anjam] 19/3/2008 19:16

In for £50 ppp

[lyntwyn] 19/3/2008 15:02

yes, seems to be lot of good value stocks out there, but where is the bottom?

[optomist4] 19/3/2008 13:34

great value now

imho

[lyntwyn] 19/3/2008 07:08

18.03.08 :+2.3, (192.9) gained midmorning after the software group announced the appointment of a new US CEO, prompting Evolution Securities to upgrade its recommendation to 'reduce' from 'sell'. This morning the company said it has appointed Sue Swenson as president and chief executive officer of its under-performing US business with effect from May 1. Responding to the news, Evolution Securities said this appointment is an end to uncertainty around this position and thus a positive for the stock. The broker said following the stock's move through the broker's target price yesterday, it has reset its target price to 180 pence from 190 while raising its advice to 'reduce', adding that Sage's valuation is now at a historic low once again with solid yield support, so downgrades are necessary for the shares to fall further. However, the broker said the outlook is "grim" medium-term and 2009 forecasts are coming down through 2008. But Evolution concluded that the next trading update should contain no shocks and it therefore expects the shares to stabilise.

[optomist4] 18/3/2008 21:11

bought some at 195 cost

looking for 205 exit

[lyntwyn] 18/3/2008 07:53

Sage appoints new US CEO and President
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Sage Group said it has appointed Sue Swenson as president and chief executive officer of its under-performing US business with effect from May 1.

Swenson, who joins Sage from digital entertainment company Atrinsic Inc, formerly New Motion, replaces former chief executive Ron Verni, who left the Newcastle-based company last October as part of a restructuring of the US, its biggest business.

Sage said Swenson has over 20 years' experience in the telecommunications industry, previously holding senior management positions at companies including Pacific Bell and T-Mobile.

Sage chief executive, Paul Walker, said in a statement that Swenson has a 'proven track record' in growing businesses and will help 'lead our North American business in its next important stage of development.'

Last November Sage reported 4 pct organic growth in its US business and said it expected modest improvement in 2008.

[optomist4] 15/3/2008 11:45

more like a test of the 190 level

then i will buy big

imho

[don one] 04/3/2008 14:31

back up two 220 by next week

[lyntwyn] 04/3/2008 14:17

Sage Group 199 down 1

Seymour Pierce 'sell'

[maddox] 29/2/2008 17:03

don one,

The answer depends on your circumstances - you are inviting us to give investment advice which we should not do.

However, we can discuss our views on Sage. I find it remarkable that Sage has got down to these levels and I am at a loss to understand or explain it. Nevertheless, some Analysts suggest it will go even lower. This suggests a decline in their revenues.

On the otherhand, the recent trading update was positive, their customers are unlikely to desert them, they have an excellent track record and they are increasing the dividend payout. The shares have been trending sideways for sometime and this may continue until sentiment changes.

Regards, Maddox