The Local Shopping Reit Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 22/10/2014 08:37

Hmm - perhaps they were, but cheapest offer now 36.5p. If you were looking at trades those were "Late" reported trades from yesterday.

[eeza] 22/10/2014 08:09

Offered @ 35.43 again.

[tiltonboy] 21/10/2014 14:59

badtime,

Still haven't decided whether to apply for the job.

I'm loaded on property plays at the moment with LXB and DSC, but would be tempted sub 35.

[skyship] 21/10/2014 12:49

Yes, would be interesting to hear what he feels on both final sum and timescale.

Answers on a postcard everybody...

[badtime] 21/10/2014 12:41

I'm surprised we haven't seen Tilts make a comment....probably filling in his application form re manager vacancy at Brum :)

[badtime] 21/10/2014 12:39

Internet better then sky :)

[skyship] 21/10/2014 12:37

Squeezed in for another 20k @ a smidgeon below 36p. Fully loaded now...

[redhill9] 21/10/2014 10:37

Thanks Skyship. Regarding variations on potential redemption yield, I now have updated my spreadsheet to (a prudent?) 45p within (not unreasonable?) 12 months to give a potential 25% yield. Also, I seem to recall someone suggesting that the NAV should be growing at around net income of 3-4% anyway while the properties remain unsold, so that might be a useful adjustment to current expectations.

Redhill

[skyship] 21/10/2014 10:20

Redhill - yes, just being cautious over the time to negotiate early repayment of the bank loans - though they could be doing that contemporaneously with the Auction...

Interesting to note that 3months off the timescale = 2p off the realisation value (ie 44p) to achieve the same 19% Redemption yield.

[redhill9] 21/10/2014 10:06

Skyship, I'm curious why you think it might take 18 months to realise cash? I think Project Minard only took around 6 months from announcement to completion. Even allowing for some tidying-up of debtors/creditors post-completion, I would have thought it reasonable to expect at least a major interim distribution rather sooner than you're suggesting - or are you just being cautious?

I agree that packaging all the properties together does suggest LSR's confidence in being able to negotiate a good result, and they will of course have a good idea of the market appetite based on whatever approaches they had about PM.

Redhill

[skyship] 21/10/2014 09:42

In view of current Market conditions I'm not at all surprised at the very limited effect on the share price Markets just not conducive to the conversion of new buyers; so perhaps just restricted to top-ups by existing holders.

My only surprise is that they are going for the auction of the remaining properties in one lot. I had posted here and elsewhere that there was likely to be a packaged 2nd auction before end 2014, but I suggested a value of c£40m, ie half the size of the £80m Project Minard ("PM") portfolio.

The decision to go for one lot must surely reflect the undeclared interest in the PM sale.

Personally I was slightly disappointed in the PM outcome; however there must have been a positive reaction from under bidders or we wouldn't so quickly now be set on this repeat action.

I'm now hoping for 46p by no later than end Mar'16 - a year sooner than I had on my spreadsheet. I make that a Redemption Yield of 19.1% from 35.75p...

[gfrae] 21/10/2014 09:28

Post sale NAV should be at least high 40s or low 50s assuming a sale around NAV if you include accrued rental income after interest, plus continued sales of properties in excess of their NAV.
Contrary to above view Whateley's departure is bullish as it now allows him to bid for,or advise any bidder.At the very least we are no longer paying him!

[eezymunny] 21/10/2014 08:36

I think right to be a tad concerned redhill, however...

We saw a complete lack of interest until it was confirmed that the first big Allsop sale was done.

My optimistic spin is that Whateley thought individual sales of properties would yield the best result and that perhaps New Solera have insisted on a portfolio sale to get the whole process done soonest....in which case there perhaps isn't much for Whateley to do, and he's miffed. Less optimistically he may know something that we don't and our perceived value here is wrong.

I think it's general belief that a portfolio sale is done at a modest discount to what could be achieved from individual sales. I was always slightly confused by one big block of props being marketed as a portfolio and not the other lot.

Whatever, as before we'll only know what's what if and when the Renouvier sale is complete. Looks to me the clear out is being done at "book or above" and that we should perhaps hope for book value nice and quickly...

[redhill9] 20/10/2014 17:00

I have to admit I'm a little nervous at the lack of share price movement since the announcement last week - I would have expected the news of sales in progress to have generated rather more market interest.

I'm wondering whether Grahame Whateley could be selling into the market now that he's no longer on the Board, and if so what does that suggest for prospects?

[skyship] 20/10/2014 14:31

Garbet - it was almost as though the MM was offering stock at 35.2p instead of bidding at that level! Whatever...our good fortune (hopefully!)

[garbetklb] 20/10/2014 08:32

Indicative quotes this morning 35 Bid, 37 Offer. But, as for Skyship, managed to buy a few more at 35.2p with what spare cash I had.

Now being quoted 36.5p for a few more - so will leave it for the moment.

[skyship] 20/10/2014 08:18

No internet this past weekend; and very intermittent now. A moment of connection and was able to BUY this morning @ 35.2p. Surely has to be good value after Friday's announcement of Project Minard Mk2.

[redhill9] 17/10/2014 16:42

Thanks Eezymunny, that quote was (I think?) in the sale announcement and I didn't look there earlier, just the financials. It explains my 45p I think as probably I took approximate mid-point between the two NAV ranges.

If we accept the Adjusted NAV basis as the more realistic for disposal then 45p doesn't look at all unreasonable (as of now).

[eezymunny] 17/10/2014 16:27

Bought a few back today after timing my exit well (luckily!) before.

"The directors believe that adjusting the 31 March 2014 NAV for this transaction, together with a limited number of individual asset sales and recent movement in derivatives, results in an implied NAV per share of 42-44p on an IFRS basis and 47-49p on the Adjusted NAV basis."

I note that Allsops are managing the sale again so presume they think do-able. Looks like a pretty complete clear-out this time. The final curtain.

Chairman departure a bit scary but guess could be for any number of reasons.

Agree that 45p the target if sale at NAV as per last lot.

[redhill9] 17/10/2014 16:08

Of course the lack of significant upward price movement may be due to the outgoing chairman now being able to sell..........?? Just a thought.

[redhill9] 17/10/2014 16:06

Those last few trades showing as sells I think r buys

Yes, my buy of 10,000 is showing as a sell. Slightly surprised at lack of price movement, but maybe it will take time for news to filter through to the "big buyers".

Regarding potential liquidation value, I have a target figure in my spreadsheet of 45p from the time of the August disposal but am struggling to see how I calculated it as the residual asset value and the loan figure give a NAV excluding cash and trade debtors/creditors, etc that doesn't at the moment make sense, and I can't see these figures were updated at the Interims.

The last NAV published by LSR appears to have been 43p with the 6 months to March statement, but this is obviously pre-sale of the two subsidiaries. Taking 43p as a target by 31 December 2015 gives a nice gry of around 16%, but worth remembering the sale this year only took around 6 months from announcement to completion.

[badtime] 17/10/2014 15:40

Those last few trades showing as sells I think r buys Where's Sky?

[badtime] 17/10/2014 15:03

Final assets..surely payout is now before end of 2015..subject to a good sale ..anyone worked out the potential payout if thy get asking price?

[alanji] 17/10/2014 14:33

Found it. Looks good news - I have topped up to my maximum 10% allocation.

[redhill9] 17/10/2014 14:03

Just tried a dummy sell and noticed can sell at 35.59p, so incredibly tight spread for a company of this size.