The Character Share Discussion Threads

[simso] 15/9/2017 12:45

I have a mid sized position in CCT, and have been waiting for the Full Year Results before deciding what to do next. In the previous two years, 67% and 68% respectively of the FY EBITDA was made in the first half: completely logical given the importance of Christmas to a Toy business! When 28p of underlying EPS was delivered in H1, a simple extrapolation of the last two year's splits might guide you towards 40p - 42p for the full year (so 12p-14p for H2). The Interims talked of changes in costings and pricing for H2, and the Brokers maintained their average 52p...so requiring 24p for H2...almost twice the level that the simple 1st half/2nd half extrapolation might guide you to. That has always felt like a "big ask", but if they can get there and the changes made do deliver something close to 24p in H2, then they are extremely well placed to beat the Brokers numbers for next year of c55p.
I think there must be some risk to the current year, as 24p is a big mountain from the first half actuals. However, the statement today with its reassurances in the second para make that risk slightly less likely. Did anyone else read it that way?

[dan_the_epic] 15/9/2017 11:35

P.s. if he wants to sell, wouldn't at all be surprised if CCT just do a block buyback - they have a ton of capacity and have done similar sizes before

[dan_the_epic] 15/9/2017 11:34

Have got comfortable with the RNS and this presents a good buying opportunity IMO.

Not least because, those on top of the stock, have noticed the very nice currency tailwind kicking in over the last couple of days.

Looking FWD to the results - we are now in a position where they will be good upside I reckon - i.e. as long as there is nothing in there to suggest malpractice, then people get comfy with the dismissal being on unimportant grounds.

[thorpematt] 15/9/2017 10:55

Interesting bit of straight-talking in today's RNS. Frankly we need more of such communications from companys.

Strong Management and blunt speaking often go hand in hand. I managed to pick up some stock this morning which may or may not be a good short-term decision but in the mid to long should do me well I estimate.

[h1a3] 15/9/2017 10:05

The 2nd para is the important one.
It sounds like booze or an office affair.
I am very comfortable with CCT and looking forward to a positive trading statement.

[runthejoules] 15/9/2017 09:14

Graham Neary on Stockopedia agrees...

[alex1621] 15/9/2017 08:41

Runthejoules ... yes, it does not sound like it is company performance related ... and therefore the share price reaction is unwarranted.

[alex1621] 15/9/2017 08:23

That's a pretty unusual and unforgiving statement ... it's usually something benign like spending time with family or pursuing other interests ... as companies fear being sued ... will be interesting to know why the loss of confidence?

[runthejoules] 15/9/2017 08:12

Wow. I was pretty confident in my investment last week when I made it - now I'm in the red. Should always stop loss once you're in profit. Protect the capital. Dang. So, personal reasons? What next?

[pnetol] 15/9/2017 08:11

Perhaps he's has been dipping his pen in the office ink?

[tiswas] 15/9/2017 08:09

Going to have problems hiding that on his cv!

[simso] 15/9/2017 08:09

What also makes it odd is that he has been FD for almost 2 years, and was an internal promotion into the role...so you would have thought they would know him really well by now. If he wasn't up to it, surely they should have realised a lot earlier than this?

[carcosa] 15/9/2017 07:58

Guess the FD will be getting rid of those shares in a hurry!

[gdjs100] 15/9/2017 07:56

The FD bought stock in March to take his holding up to 100,000 shares - that somewhat de-risks it for me. Very odd though.

[simso] 15/9/2017 07:39

Feared a profit warning as I started reading, but somewhat reassured by the second para - the circumstances do not reflect the trading of the Group. When the trading update comes out later this month, is a "behind expectations" now ruled out (or at least much less likely) having said that?

[18bt] 15/9/2017 07:10

Bizrre anouncement which looks like it has been drafted by employment lawyers rather than PRs or even humans

[dan_the_epic] 10/9/2017 14:40

Would be tempted to slightly reduce my timescale post the Pokemon stuff!

[runthejoules] 10/9/2017 14:19

I owe you all 10p. Between you... nice article Dan. Read you around, will check out your other Stocko thoughts. 750p in 18 months? Not exactly an IQE, but with the divvy this seems one we wouldn't have to worry about too much. GLA.

[dan_the_epic] 06/9/2017 20:26

3.4%? Is 3.6% even after the rise today, rising to a forecast 4.3% for 2018.

And I think that is light.

Runthejoules - next time take note of my piece on stockopedia! (then proceed to wait until it falls and buy in cheaper than me)



If management here can follow the release up with a solid trading statement within the next fortnight, then I reckon we shift up a gear to a permanent change in the multiple the market applies here, and we break to new highs.

[runthejoules] 06/9/2017 14:46

Mentioned on SHARES, Paul Scott holds some and I bet you 10p the Naked Trader says he's bought some again in his return tomorrow afternoon.

[rcturner2] 06/9/2017 09:14

You get a large cash balance, a PE of 10 and a yield of 3.4% for your money here.

[runthejoules] 06/9/2017 08:39

Graham Neary likes it on Stockopedia: hxxp://www.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-6-sep-cct-215583/ Recommended read, I love it when they get up early and give you opinion you can act upon (dyor, this was on my watchlist already and I caught some in my Pokeball at 495p!) GLA

[dan_the_epic] 06/9/2017 07:54

Superb and very exciting. Easily can become a core brand - would expect the share price to be up materially on this.

[18bt] 06/9/2017 07:46

v happy adding Pokemon to the stable