Tethys Share Discussion Threads

[casual47] 05/11/2016 14:22

Bill was dominant due to his shareholding but until he took a BOD position he couldn't actually instruct exec team what should be done, just say 'no' or 'yes'.

[zangdook] 05/11/2016 14:06

TI 12193

Pope have been in a dominant position for a very long time. The idea that they're a white knight come to rescue us is ridiculous. Also, I don't think it's right to pick out Botting like that. We don't know all the internal dynamics of the board when he was there but I don't think he played a leading role - the impression given was that he was trying to help tidy up the post-Robson mess and then quit, leaving the active management to the supposed professionals.

[casual47] 05/11/2016 13:03

As far as we know AGR have sold down their loan to 3rd parties, so I am not sure there will be room for renegotiating that loan.

It may make it easier for AGR to make another approach, perhaps.

[naimanka74] 05/11/2016 11:21

"Get some trust back into the company and its Board, get some institutions on board and bam the share price will rise........HOW HARD CAN IT BE?????"

Harder than you think, institutions will not be able to touch it with a barge pole.

1) Market Cap is too low (many funds cannot invest in micro-cap's)
2) Governance - now non existent

So the Market Cap must be grown & board balance created, now I guess Bill Wells now needs a relationship agreement with himself :-))))

The next deal is critical, both to stabilise the company and to (re)gain credibility (other posters are correct about the share price, it's last "normal" reaction was post the announcement of the AGR deal/loan, since then it's been in a steep spiral irrespective of what has happened).

At one stage AGR were well in the money with their original convertible loan (at 10c), so it's come seriously unglued since then, it doesn’t correlate to anything else in the market.

We should not forget though that both AGR and Olisol have put in serious money as well, so for trust/credibility to be restored (from an institutional perspective) they need to be part of the next steps (whether rescheduling debt or supporting moves to bring some improvement to the share price) to rebuild the business (is it a business, I guess right now it’s not?).

Obviously neither is exactly a "trusted partner" from a PI perspective but almost inevitably they will be part of any solution.

Kenneth May spent at least a year with Olisol so he must understand how they think/work, so there ought to be something to build upon.


They still need to ditch the dual listing and any other unnecessary costs (Cayman Islands) and properly model the company’s assets (Gas vs Oil, export pricing, or lack thereof, for oil is an issue for me, clearly the whole oil sale side was a mess).


In the Ken May video I don’t think oil production was mentioned (other than the Klymenie exploration well, where clearly every possible step must be taken to reduce risk pre-drill) but it’s crucial as there must be well intervention needed on Doris to boost oil production and gain export pricing capability, so the strategy needs addressing as well as it doesn’t currently stack up.

[temporarily insane] 04/11/2016 23:45

Some people believe but are simply let down by !

Hopefully these days have gone now Bill/Pope have got hold of the reigns.

[roundup] 04/11/2016 21:28

94% of portfolio---WOW!!!!!!!

[temporarily insane] 04/11/2016 20:32

Time to "oil the wheels" NOW . Let those backhanders flow. Its about time.

[che7win] 04/11/2016 20:04

I agree with casual, I think Olisol cannot be trusted and suspect the gas news is because of underhand tactics.I also think that a big 'mistake' in the past 1.5 years was that the wheels weren't 'oiled', which is why we probably needed a partner prepared for that. I totally against that, but I think it must be part of business in Kaz unfortunately. I also think/know the contract we did in Taj was poorly constructed in that if we missed one payment we were in trouble. The partners could delay if we were in trouble?

[che7win] 04/11/2016 20:00

Benand, I have been in your position multiple times, from Infobank to Meldex to Iofina and TPL.You may strike it lucky a few times, I thought I had and initially did with Iofina and Meldex and TPL, but it only takes one failure with 94% invested and you will be wiped out.Take my advice and preserve capital at all costs. I wouldn't put more than 20% into any company - unless in the very short term in an uptrend.I'm out of TPL and feel shareholders have been completely let down. The Sinohan deal should have been completed but the government blocked it - we needed a big partner and still do.

[benandemmiboo] 04/11/2016 19:37

There does seem mostly people with oversized investments here. When I initially invested, at 50 cents-plus, I had the good fortune of being an impatient investor who got bored by it (and realized I could not interpret gas drilling results too well). I didn't reinvest until Sinohan deal collapsed, and from March-August last year, I loved it -- even though I had such a puny investment in it.

But once I had too much luck this past year with a stock that I averaged down on for a year (I went from 70 percent down on Luna Gold in December 2015 to almost 300 percent up by end of summer), I started thinking these risky, illiquid companies in need of capex and an improving commodities market was my nitch -- I saw the illiquidity as a plus as it prevents me from selling at the first whiff of profits -- and over time have moved all profits, and then some, into Tethys, where it is now 94 percent of my acct.

The past week has been miserable, and has taught me some lessons, but now there's nothing much to do except figure out what to do in a worst case scenario, and to pray a lot. I think there's great reason to fear the Kazakhstan govt here, so hope they know what they're doing. Anyway, sorry for this babble -- and may good luck come to us.

[cowls] 04/11/2016 19:17

Roundup - know that feeling. Been averaging down from 55p, even have 3 years of these in my ISA - need 30p for that to break even ?

[roundup] 04/11/2016 18:48

I'm presently occupied with the distasteful job of reconciling my TPL account. Unfortunately, I made the mistake of thinking the so called Directors, which unashamedly took their salary, would eventually put together some sort of package to bring shareholder value to the company. So I mistakenly averaged down putting in (a lot) of good money after bad. My TPL account looks terrifying.

[temporarily insane] 04/11/2016 17:44

Frustration is an understatement.

I am glad that the new board are in.

Im just waiting for the wine to kick in to make my suggestions to beaker56!

[hguess16] 04/11/2016 17:15

TI,
I understand your frustration due to the mis-steps of the past.
Maybe you should give Bill Wells and his new team a bit of time to turn it around !.
So far, Skripka and Abramov have been removed !.
Next step, Strategic Investor with the cash !. " Show me the money "!.
The share price should then recover to more realistic levels. I note that relatively
small volumes are being traded. Why ?. Because, like you, a lot of us believe that
the " basket case" has got a chance to recover if the new team can deliver soon !.

[temporarily insane] 04/11/2016 16:21

Time is money.

[hguess16] 04/11/2016 15:36

Casual47,
I have made mistakes "big time", but it does not mean that I cannot learn from my blunders. Here, we have a new team with Wells at last, realising that he cannot be
semi-detached. Hence, his new role, as I hope, "hands on".
I would like to give them an opportunity to undo the ( with hindsight ) naive things
that have been done in the past.
Believe me, when I say, that having been involved in companies based in emerging countries, it is not too difficult to be misled by people who have a different set of values in both their private and "professional" lives.

[temporarily insane] 04/11/2016 14:58

Interesting to see that the Canadians havent woken up yet. Just more proof of the underhand way the share price got to be at this price.

People were in charge of this corruption using TSX to get the share price down. Look at the graph and disagree with me.

[temporarily insane] 04/11/2016 14:48

Shouldnt the Kaz government be trying to stop all this.

[casual47] 04/11/2016 14:35

It seems clear Olisol engineered the cancellation of the gas contract. The question is how big is their influence (corruption) and could they possibly poison any prospects for a 3rd party? If e.g. a Chinese company is looking at Tethys will they be able to get Kaz government officials on their side or will Olisol prove stronger.

What happens next with the gas contract issue and the EGG dispute will be good indicators of how far Olisol's influence stretches.

[walter walcarpets] 04/11/2016 14:27

zangdook: or his brother Brian at playing guitar and cutting his own hair

[casual47] 04/11/2016 14:21

Hguess, it was definitely a con but the fact is, the BOD agreed to it and thought that given the circumstances it was a good enough deal. They could have cancelled the whole thing then, they didn't.

You seem to think a 3rd party will not be out to get the best deal, for them and their shareholders. The best deal may not be paying 400% premium.

[hguess16] 04/11/2016 14:18

Casual,
I would remind you that Olisol managed to convince ( Con !) Tethys into the deal on the grounds that they would add value with all their various " influential friends in high places in KAZ and their existing partnership over 7 years. They then gradually whittled down the price from C$0.17 to C$0.054. It became a " shrinking pup" and Tethys walked into a trap, which nearly ended with a takeover by Olisol.
I hope Wells has learned from that experience and now that he is chairman, He,
Ogunsemi, May and Oliver do not repeat the mistakes made by the previous team.
So to start with C$0.054 is inappropriate. It would be more reasonable to start with US$0.10 as this was a figure which was used for the sale of 63m shares to Olisol.
Bill Wells has decided to start afresh with his new team of Kenneth May and Adeola Ogunsemi, I expect them to carve out a solid future for Tethys in the short and medium term with the help of a professional and credible strategic partner.
My best wishes to the new team.

[casual47] 04/11/2016 14:02

Positive news on the gas contract and EGG dispute may be a good start also to build up the SP, but who knows how quickly that will happen (if it happens)

[casual47] 04/11/2016 13:36

Someone could step in on exactly the same terms as Olisol, at CAD 0.054, as that is effectively the last "valuation" of the company.

But any higher than that will be very difficult, given the current share price

TPL is not in a position to be too demanding, unless there is a bidding war.

The best thing would be a short term solution which will start to strengthen the share price and then build a deal from there.

Imo.