Team Internet Share Discussion Threads

[yf23_1] 08/1/2024 17:35

effing unbelievable, good update, and its the only one of my shares that ended down !

[deanowls] 08/1/2024 15:12

Because they can only buy a % of daily sales. Although if they know who the seller is and make an approach?

[azaman] 08/1/2024 14:09

What I don't understand is, that, since the price is lower than what the buyback program will allow, why not buy more at this price?

[adamb1978] 08/1/2024 14:08

We'll see in March what they plan for capital allocation for FY24. Personally I'm happy with them mopping up shares for a PE of 6.5x - if they could acquire companies on that sort of multiple we'd all be very happy.

At some point the liquidity in the 115p-125p range will dry up and the share price will increase sharply. Logically there's a finite number of TIG investors who are willing to see in this range. If you strip out long-term insti holders, management, Kestrel who are not sellers then that finite number as a % of share count has to be reasonably low. Will work through the numbers when I have a moment

[1watty] 08/1/2024 13:52

.....and maybe for a long, long time yet if he/she/they have a huge holding.

[diesel] 08/1/2024 13:11

Looks like a seller is shifting stock whenever there is increased buying…

[slogsweep] 08/1/2024 13:03

Obviously market does not believe company statements even though the company must have a pretty good idea of 2023 profits. since buy backs have been a dismal failure in supporting share price why not try debt reduction and dividends.

[adamb1978] 08/1/2024 09:09

I've added a few more this morning. I had some nice gains in the PF in Q4 which increased the size cap per position which I mandate for myself, and was then waiting for a TU from TIG to add further here.

[adamb1978] 08/1/2024 08:01

Hi Rivaldo

Agreed. Market forecasts are for 21.9 cents EPS, which implies a PE of only 6.6x for the year just finished. The cash generation here justifies a much higher price IMO.

Adam

[rivaldo] 08/1/2024 07:14

Today's RNS with a rather anodyne title might mean some miss the excellent news below, confirming a record Q4 performance and once again stating that results will be "at least" in line with expectations:

"Prior to this, on Monday, 29 January 2024, we will release a comprehensive Trading Update. This update will highlight a record performance in Q4 2023 and FY 2023, demonstrating that the Group continues to trade at least in line with current market expectations."

[slogsweep] 05/1/2024 09:25

Thanks for that its some what reassuring. Its usually the left field setbacks to a share that catches me out, unexpected profit warning-JD, terror attacks, boats getting stuck in canals etc which have unpredictable results. I know TIG is in talks with Google and thought this might be related.

[adamb1978] 05/1/2024 08:03

Hi Slogsweep
That point has come up regularly on these boards over the last year or so and no-one has a conclusive answer. I've heard the company been asked it on investor calls and they didnt seem to think it was a threat. It certainly doesnt seem to have stopped TIG's growth though.

More generally, I think its very easy for amateur and professional investors to come up with what they believe are huge threats for companies. However, when I've seen this at listed companies at which I've worked, those threats have always been well wide of the mark. I therefore apply a large degree of strategic ignorance with investments - its not possible, from the outside, to be an expert in one sector let alone multiple.

Adam

[slogsweep] 05/1/2024 07:53

Google trying to stop cookies and plug their own alternative - could this affect the online advertising market and what are the implications for TIG - anyone out there know anything about it?

[adamb1978] 04/1/2024 18:50

Hi Boadica

I believe it was TIG which said on an investor call last year that they were seeing selling from a couple core institutions as a result of them performing well but other small cap holdings falling, meaning that the fund became too overweight in TIG.

So perversely, performing well relative to the market meant their shareholders had to lighten up a bit.

Very content with my TIG holding. They're throwing off cash and have stopped frittering it, so that should feed through to a higher share price at some point.

Adam

[alter ego] 04/1/2024 15:28

very nicely explained boadica

[boadicea] 04/1/2024 14:31

azaman - The input to a share-price decline is an excess of sellers over buyers. The price then declines to balance supply and demand.
However, I assume you meant the inputs to supply and demand.
Essentially we have a principle factor increasing supply across the whole market atm and that is the need for people to raise cash to pay for living costs. They raid their savings, selling not only shares directly but more so indirectly by cashing in trust holdings, insurances etc. The direct holders (e.g. institutions plus you and me etc) then have to decide what to sell.
The attraction of TIG as a sale candidate may possibly arise from the fact that it is not showing a hefty loss for most holders. Unfortunately, although value (including prospects) might seem the most sensible criterion for making the choice, sentiment often supplants it - e.g. not wanting to take a loss or mere boredom from lack of apparent progress.

[slogsweep] 04/1/2024 11:04

Glad to see a debate has been initiated on TIG I get worried when it's too quiet I feel I'm the only one left holding them

[azaman] 04/1/2024 10:48

All,

I have a fundamental question. Does share price decline happen in a vacuum?
If not and it requires inputs; in that case, what are these inputs here?

[adamb1978] 04/1/2024 09:43

If the trend has been negative despite the buyback, then it would have obviously been greater without the buyback. So the buyback can't be having a negative effect, but has been negating what would have been a greater decline.

In terms of debt reduction vs buyback, I think its a balance. They havent been increasing borrowing to buy back shares - i think they'll have generated somewhere around $20m cash in H2 2023 before any dividends or buybacks (and assuming flat working cap) and will have used most of that figure for buybacks in H2. Given there seem to be willing sellers at the current trading range, I'm comfortable with that decision.

In 2024, personally I'm relaxed on the balance between debt reduction and buybacks. I do agree that the equity story would be strengthened if they were closer to 0 debt and perhaps we might see a more 50/50 balance between the two?

re increasing the divi more, I'm not sure that the nature of TIG would attract income investors, so I'm comfortable with a 1%-2% yield for now and putting more cash towards buyback and debt reduction. Some yield helps with funds who need to have a divi, but to me putting the cash generation to work on improving the co (debt reduction and buybacks) is better than cranking it up more

[diesel] 04/1/2024 09:33

I sort of agree although running the business should be their primary concern not trying to enrich shareholders, the former will satisfy the latter. I agree in reducing debt first, it should only be used for earnings enhancing acquisitions.

[slogsweep] 04/1/2024 09:23

on the share price, fewer shares in issue should mean the price rises but the trend since they started has been negative. the money should have be used to reduce debt first borrowing money to buy back shares is a bad idea if the interest rate is high and rising. If they are generating cash at the rate claimed why not pay a 10p divi that at least would attract income investors.

[adamb1978] 04/1/2024 09:08

How can buy backs be having a negative effect?

[slogsweep] 04/1/2024 09:06

no comment on set back yesterday. price again below Open offer price. Buy backs having negative effect must have bought back all the new shares by now. chart looking awful. Why am I still holding, Any other share and I would have chopped it by now yet its my biggest holding I must be mad.

[adamb1978] 03/1/2024 16:41

Welcome back ggrantsu!

[ggrantsu] 03/1/2024 15:06

Back in here after some reflection and thinking about the business...probably the incentives of the insiders and management here that convince me the outcome (however long it may take) will be good.

Still stand by fact that OM division has some headline risks and they could do a better job of being honest about those...but at a near FCF yield, the risk reward is of course good.

Hello again anyway!!!