Tclarke Share Discussion Threads

[edmundshaw] 01/2/2019 14:12

Does anyone think like me that someone is selling into this good update? For large stakeholders that is an ideal opportunity to offload a good number of shares even if it seems a bit contrary. TBH I am really very sanguine about CTO, I am not really fussed about WHEN the share price goes up closer to fair value (perhaps 120-150p in the shorter term), as I feel sure that sooner or later it will.

[rivaldo] 01/2/2019 08:21

Hi CM - up early for snow-clearing duties :o))

[edmundshaw] 01/2/2019 08:18

Very high levels of humidity in swimming areas? Not sure about that. There will need to be good air separation from changing areas or getting dressed after a swim gets pretty uncomfortable... Still, that is not T Clarke's problem - they just need to fulfill the specs!

[cheshire man] 01/2/2019 07:25

Good news indeed rivaldo, once again thanks for keeping us updated,,,,,,and so early in the morning too :-)

[rivaldo] 01/2/2019 06:40

News - another "major M&E contract" win:



"South West wins St Sidwell’s Point: A UK first for ultra-high environmental standard on large scale

The St Sidwell’s Point PassivHaus Leisure Centre in Exeter is the first of its kind in the UK. TClarke has won a major M&E contract to deliver the project with Kier as principal contractor. Rob Faro, TClarke MD for the South West, introduces the win:

The PassivHaus concept is a holistic approach, aiming for high efficiency with regard to all aspects and facilities hosted by a building; it prioritises high thermal comfort and energy efficiency. Each swimming pool or leisure centre project will vary significantly in terms of its energy consumption, largely due to different usage patterns and available facilities. Due to the complexity of the topic, standardised certification criteria for PassivHaus leisure centres are not yet available; accreditation is instead awarded based on compliance with energy demand requirements and specific efficiency measures that are pre-defined for the individual project.

This is the first time PassivHaus standards have been attempted on this scale in the UK and for TClarke, this is a full MEP installation. The challenge of achieving PassivHaus standards in a building which has three swimming pools, a gym, spin and dance studios is considerable and requires a multizone PHPP model, taking into account cool and dry areas and warm and humid areas. The ventilation, heating and cooling systems need to be precisely controlled and monitored by the Building Management System to ensure the thermal comfort of occupants whilst minimising the energy use. Because of the higher quality of the build, humidity levels in the pool halls are allowed to be much higher, thus reducing the normally very high air change rates, reducing heating and ventilation costs. So for all these reasons, it is perfect for TClarke’s engineers to apply their skills, attention to detail and ingenuity.

It showcases our expertise in sustainability and energy efficiency, something we have been working on for several years with standards such as BREEAM, PassivHaus, Building Biology and Well.

Once again, we’re working with our long-term partner Kier and are able to announce our success in winning one of the major M&E contracts in the region.

etc"

[squarepeg86] 31/1/2019 19:15

Yes I know what you meant, and I was reading tomorrows publication. I use the app and it is definitely available to view if you have signed up for digital subscription. T Clarke is not included in Simon Thompson's Bargain Shares article.

[podgyted] 31/1/2019 19:04

By that I mean there's no update for this week's publication - I've just got their tips for the week but ST's bargain shares for 2019 are not part of that.

I'll keep looking.

[thorpematt] 31/1/2019 19:00

rivaldo,

Can I just point out that Carlsberg do actually do trading statements.

Look, here's a link:-



P.S CTO's was better

[podgyted] 31/1/2019 19:00

Am I missing something - there's nothing on the IC website?!

[squarepeg86] 31/1/2019 18:18

The digital version has been released and I've just had a quick read now as I haven't been in from work long. Unfortunately, it's not in there which both disappoints and surprises me. However, I think that we will see more coverage as the company progresses, and maybe more movement tomorrow while todays update gets digested over night, especially with the drop towards the end of the day.

[podgyted] 31/1/2019 18:04

Nothing from IC yet

[podgyted] 31/1/2019 18:04

Traders

Next few days will give real picture.

[from8to800] 31/1/2019 17:30

Awful reversal near end of session. Not pleased with this turnaround.

[squarepeg86] 31/1/2019 16:00

Much appreciated.

[rivaldo] 31/1/2019 13:54

Here's the main thrust of Singer's note FYI:

"Strategy delivering with record order book

TClarke continues to deliver on its strategy, with strong momentum in earnings and the order book, whilst maintaining a healthy balance sheet (the Group carries no debt). Both revenue and operating profit are expected to be in line with expectations after the upgrades in November (EPS estimates increased 12%/15% in FY18/19). The order book hit another record high at £411m in December 2018. This is a 22% increase year on year and a 2% increase on the figure reported in November. The Technologies sector, a key growth area for the Group, has been the main driver of this increase. Our FY19 revenue forecast is now 88% covered by the order book. The outlook statement is confident and we believe that positive earnings momentum will continue to drive the share price. We also see the rating as undemanding, with the shares trading on a substantial discount to peers."

"Shares attractively valued

On an FY19 P/E rating of 6.6x, TClarke trades at a substantial discount to peers (8.2x). We believe that earnings momentum and revenue visibility should support a higher share price. Whilst Brexit is likely to dictate near term sentiment, we see re-rating potential as uncertainty clears. We believe a sector P/E rating is justified – this would imply a share price of 134p. We believe the shares could exceed this level as continued growth is delivered."

[cockerhoop] 31/1/2019 13:31

You'd need to be a client of N+1 Singer or subscribe to Research Tree.

[squarepeg86] 31/1/2019 12:38

Where do you guys find the N+1 Singer information from? I've googled it but can't find it anywhere. Cheers

[cc2014] 31/1/2019 11:13

Good morning all. I'm pleased to see the hard work of the directors is now beginning to be reflected in the share price.


I found the update interesting. Headline " TCLARKE REPORTS SUSTAINED GROWTH IN ORDER BOOK AND PROFITABILITY

AND IS DEBT FREE"

And is debt free gets it's own sentence and is in bold at the top. Clearly the directors wish to point out the strength of the balance sheet. And rightly so. The construction sector has been hit with warning after warning over cash and many investors won't touch it any longer because of this. Carillion goes bust, IRV on it's last legs even after cash injection a year ago, Laing O'Rourke filing accounts late as they can't get them signed off until they have reached agreement with their banks, Galliford rights issue a year ago, Kier rights issue a few weeks ago. Any number of smaller competitors going bust.

So, how many listed construction companies out there can claim to be debt free and have £12m in the bank? only two I think, CTO and NMNC (and go look at their share price over the last 3 years and see what it did for them). Rightly they should shout loud about this, to investors, clients and suppliers. It makes me sleep easy at night.


And then this from the CEO:
The Board continues to look forward with optimism and we remain focussed on delivering an improving financial performance as we move through the year."
I grinned from ear to ear when I read this. What I believe it says is "things are going pretty well, we're almost sure we're going to upgrade the numbers later in the year but it would not be prudent to do so only one month into the year no matter how confident we are"


I can't get my head round N+1. Where does that dividend forecast come from? Profits up 18.6% in the year, yet dividends only up 5.7%. What are they on? Did they not notice the interim was up 10% and by implication surely the final will be up at least 10%. And as for 3.9p in 2019. That makes no sense either. If £8.6m=14.7p EPS, then 16.3p=£9.5m. They forecast profits up 11% but dividends up only 5.4%. They are forecasting a company with £12m in the bank and no debt is going to only pay out 24% as dividends and as the profits get bigger they will pay out less and less and dividends on a proportional basis! If that's true, the dividend bill will be £1.6m, the corporation tax bill will be £1.6m and all other things be equal with working capital CTO will end 2019 with £18m in their bank account. Not that I would object to £18m in the bank account but I think it more likely N+! don't have a scooby and that's part of the reason the share price is so low.

Anyways all good from where I'm sitting. I particularly like the progress on intelligent buildings with Eton. Got to be good for margins. Hurrah

[effortless cool] 31/1/2019 09:59

Funnily enough, 134p is exactly the same number that my valuation model produced when I updated it this morning.

[cheshire man] 31/1/2019 09:58

Thanks for that update rivaldo certainly looking to itO 120p prediction by results,,,,,not forgetting the 2.9p divi for holders on the 26/4 :-)

[rivaldo] 31/1/2019 09:38

N+1 Singer now see a 134p share price as justified.

They go for historic 14.7p EPS, with 3.7p divi, and this year 16.3p EPS with a 3.9p divi.

[its the oxman] 31/1/2019 09:25

120p come results bar the main market tanking

[edmundshaw] 31/1/2019 07:49

Good solid happy sounding statement.

Margins 2.7% on track to rise to 3%. That rise represents a prospective 11% increase in EPS in itself in the future. Given the larger order book and the two new offices, I'd expect turnover to go up too, so, well you can work that one out for yourselves!

And we are still on an historic 6.5 P/E.

[lasmo] 31/1/2019 07:48

Quote “technology sector up 400% to 50million”. If this is all within Eaton consultancy side, this is fantastic news. Their margins should be considerably higher than the rest of the business. Does anyone know what the margin of Eaton was pre acquisition?