Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Tangiers LSE:TPET London Ordinary Share AU000000TPT1 ORD NPV (DI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 0.575p 0.00p 0.00p - - - 0 06:37:29
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 0.3 -3.8 -2.7 - 6.54

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02/10/201607:24Tangiers Petroleum - TPET - A very ramped stock165
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19/12/201200:32Tangiers Petroleum - TPET - A very ramped stock1
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westmoreland lad: The transaction terms are as follows: Â 600,000,000 shares at an issue price of A$0.01 (~0.50p) per share to raise up to A$6 million with a listed one for two (1:2) free attaching option (exercisable at A$0.02 each and expiring 3 years from the date of issue). The options are ASX listed only. Â The transaction is valued at 0.375p per share which includes the value of the option. This is a 25% discount to the current share price.
foxx999: Bonkers!!!Tangiers Petroleum (TPET.L, 2.38p) – Speculative BuyTangiers Petroleum announced a proposal to raise US$1.2m through the issue of 200 million shares at US$0.006 per share. The proceeds are to be utilised towards working capital management and appraisal of new ventures. However, the proposal is contingent upon the approval of the shareholders. Next week, the company plans to unveil operational updates and future strategy, and resume the trading of its shares.Beaufort view: Tangiers' proposition of equity infusion is likely to provide substantial financial leverage to the company to explore new ventures and meet its current capital obligations. Despite the failure of the TAO -1 well earlier this year, we remain optimistic about the other permits in the world class Tarfaya Block prospect located in Morocco, adjacent to the proven petroleum system of Cap Juby Oil field. The share price has plunged 83% in the past one month and has now placed the company at attractive valuations. With the half yearly results to be released soon, the stage is set for a major rebound when the trading resumes in the coming week. In the light of these and the company's prospects in petroleum rich areas, we maintain a Speculative Buy rating.
illuminati1: Tangiers Petroleum - worth a tradeBY GARY NEWMAN | FRIDAY 4 JULY 2014The AIM market finally seems to be showing some appetite for oil and gas stocks and I'd expect some of that to spread to Tangiers Petroleum (TPET). A lot has happened since I tipped this company here at 12p back in January, including the deal with Jacka Resources falling through, suspension of trading for a couple of months after the resignation of some of the board members, and the raising of $9 million through equity issues.Given all that has gone on in recent months this is far from being one of my personal AIM favourites, but with the way the market is currently I can see plenty of upside to come in the near term now that the TAO-1 drill on the Tarfaya block in Morocco is underway – albeit after a delay to spudding.Tangiers has a 25 per cent interest in this license (Galp Energia is the operator) and the drill is targeting three stacked targets – the main objective being the middle Jurassic, and the drilling of the lower Jurassic being dependent on results achieved in the other two targets.The company is targeting net resources on a best estimate basis of 190mmbbl, based in the 2011 CPR carried out by NSAI, and any oil find in any of the targets is likely to have a big impact on the company's £32 million current market cap.This drill has a 21% Chance of Success and Tangiers has a free carry on it, capped at $33 million, making the company liable for $13.2 million as long as the drill is on budget, and was why they raised funds in recent months.A lot of the previous drilling close to this block date back to the late 60s through to the late 80s, and the 13 wells drilled during that period were hardly a success – although a small amount of 38API oil was flowed from the Middle Jurassic by ESSO back in 1972, and in 1969 it managed to flow 2,377bopd of heavy oil from the upper Jurassic.Like any exploration drill the chances of failure outweigh those of success by some margin and it would be a real gamble leaving any amount of money in for the results.But given the current share price of around 13p I would expect a chance to at least take out your initial stake prior to any results, and either bank a profit or leave some free shares running if you like to gamble.The recent warrant conversion has dragged on the share price and helped keep it down at this level, and I've bought some myself at 13.25p purely to trade the rise I expect – I don't risk money on drills like this when it comes to being in when results come.I do anticipate it gaining some momentum in the near future, and with only 248 million shares in issue it does have a tendency to move quite quickly and could see 18p or higher in a short space of time. It is still a highly speculative buy though and by no means a safe bet.
nigelwestm: No. But the fact that the share price has behaved in precisely the opposite way to how explorers' share prices usually perform coming up to spud date and then when spud is announced would suggest a lack of confidence in the potential of this particular well. I bought into these many weeks ago for an average price of around 13p with the expectation that we would be at 20p by now - my target price for exit. Looks like I am going to have to hold on until results are released to the market. By then the shares could be a couple of pennies or heading towards a pound. Whatever the result, you can be sure that private investors like us will be the last to know. This is an AIM share, after all...
malcolmmm: I think it should be noted that the managing director of the company recently stumped up 200k of his own hard earned cash to invest before drilling. From Oil Rush This tiny market cap oil explorer we have invested in was a first mover in one of the most exciting new oil exploration hotspots in the world – Morocco, North West Africa. Offshore Morocco has huge reserves of oil on par with North and South America – but it's almost totally unexplored and unexploited. Huge potential exists in offshore Morocco for billion barrel oil discoveries, which is why oil super-majors are scrambling for a foothold in the region, recently snapping up any available acreage. The company we have invested in scooped up one of the best blocks in offshore Morocco way back in 2009 and is drilling a high impact well in a matter of weeks. A recently drilled well by two oil majors right next door to our tiny explorer discovered heavy oil, proved a quality reservoir AND flowed at a decent rate... But those two oil majors are now fuming as analysis of their results has revealed that the highest quality part of this offshore hydrocarbon system extends right into our little explorers block... The analysis shows our explorers' acreage holds bigger targets, a higher quality reservoir AND lighter oil... and way more of it too – in fact our plucky little explorer has THE LARGEST prospect in the area. Light oil has a low viscosity and flows easily at room temperature – and fetches a higher price on market.... We are talking 1.6 billion barrels of the stuff here. That's what you get for being an early mover, and having your pick of the blocks before the scramble began. Everyone knows that the best time to invest in an oil explorer is the lead up to a drilling event – just before market hype, excitement and anticipation of a positive result pushes up the value of the stock. For example, a similar sized oil explorer operating to the south saw their market cap increase 3-fold in the lead up to drilling. ...but with our investment, we have identified a unique and fascinating situation that has forced pre-drill uplift to be compressed into a "coiled spring" that we expect to be released when the market is made aware of our little known explorer – more on this later. And aside from their upcoming drill, 2014 is set to be the busiest year of drilling in offshore Morocco in the past 14 years. TEN wells alone are planned this year. Any discovery nearby this explorer's acreage will have a positive flow on effect. Not to mention Morocco's extremely attractive fiscal terms and political stability. This oil explorer is targeting over 1.6 billion barrels of oil and its market cap is miniscule. Oil is trading at over US $100 per barrel. For such a company defining event, a mere few weeks away, it's trading completely under the radar. But all that is going to change. The great unwashed masses haven't woken up to our company's potential and near term drilling yet – when they finally do it may be too late... This company has a stake in an area of more than 11,000km² with multiple prospects showing hydrocarbons. Now this tiny oil explorer is getting set to push the start button and stab a big, fat drill bit into this monster target. We did some digging through public company filings and discovered that the managing director of this company recently stumped up 200k of his own hard earned cash to invest before drilling. Let's just add up the potential in clear terms – you'll see immediately why we invested and are now counting down the days to drilling.... The company is about to drill into three stacked targets for a total potential of around 1.6 billion barrels + The company has an undervalued market – way below its peers + The company scored land ahead of its competitors and had its pick of acreage + Morocco is seeing oil activity it hasn't witnessed in decades, proving the region's promise = An oil explorer that could be about to re-rate in a matter of weeks. We are pleased to present the latest addition to our investment portfolio: TPT_MA1_010 Tangiers Petroleum TANGIERS PETROLEUM (ASX:TPT, AIM:TPET) is a $32M AUD / £ 18 M market cap oil explorer with ambitions to develop an offshore oil field in Morocco. Morocco is one of the most underexplored oil regions in the world, yet it has great potential of which energy companies are just beginning to scratch the surface – there are 10 wells planned for drilling offshore this year, the most since 2000. You can see in this map the sea of activity, TANGIERS are operating in the block shown in yellow (the furious super-majors who already drilled next door and found oil are in block are to the west shown by the number "1"): TPT_MA1_011 TANGIERS moved early in 2009 to secure their block, before exploring for oil in Morocco was cool, then in 2012 farmed out to Galp Energia for $33 million, plus $7.5 million in past costs. Should there be any additional costs, TANGIERS will need to cover 33% of them, so in order to account for this, TANGIERS recently raised $AUD 5 million (1 AUD currently buys about 0.55 GBP). We always like investing in companies that have recently raised capital and have cash in the bank. TANGIERS will be drilling into the Jurassic section offshore Morocco – into an area that was once a super-continent linked to North and South America. Its vast potential is thanks to underground activity that occurred millions of years ago. Texas, Brazil, Venezuela and even Canada have the Jurassic to thank for their vast oil fortunes in the modern age. Wait – what does Canada have to do with oil in Morocco? Just check out what's happening in Nova Scotia, a maritime province in Canada. This Canadian land was once part of the super-continent and its Jurassic play fairway has been successfully explored. So far, 23 significant and eight commercial hydrocarbon discoveries have been made in offshore Nova Scotia... Not only this, but additional wells have been found to contain numerous oil and gas shows. Although it contains the same Jurassic play and is considered analogous, offshore Morocco remains relatively unexplored and it is possible that drilling into this Jurassic carbonate section could bring flows on par or even higher than what's being found in Nova Scotia. TANGIERS acquired what is known as the Tarfaya Block, which has a proven hydrocarbon system associated with the aforementioned Jurassic carbonate fairway. The Tarfaya block is yellow in the map below: TPT_MA1_012 So what happened next door to Tarfaya block? Oil Majors are scrambling to drill in Morocco, and two of the big boys have just drilled a well next door that confirmed the heavy oil discovery from the '60s which flowed at 2,400 bopd confirming both the regional presence of oil but also high quality reservoir. Cairn Energy (market cap of approximately GBP £1 billion) teamed up with Genel Energy (market cap of approximately GBP £2.5 billion) to drill the Juby Maritime-1 well to the east of TANGIERS' upcoming TAO-1 prospect (you can see JM-1 in the image above, represented by a small green blob) Both wells are puncturing the same oil system, represented by the long blue squiggle. We'll get into it in more detail later (featuring all sorts of technical oil & gas mumbo jumbo that will make your head spin), but essentially what the Genel & Cairn results have revealed to TANGIERS is that oil exists throughout the system, proven by shows in wells and the Cap Juby discovery in the adjacent block. Why is TANGIERS a "Coiled Spring"? When you do your basic research on TANGIERS, you will read about a recent proposed merger with another African focused oil & gas company. After months of negotiation – the merger did not go ahead. During the lengthy merger negotiations, TANGIERS went into voluntary suspension, meaning that its shares could not be bought or sold on the ASX. Why is this good news? Like we mentioned before, everyone knows that oil exploration stocks trend upwards in the lead up to drilling, and even more so in the lead up to reaching target drill depth and discover results. Due to the proposed merger, TANGIERS had been voluntarily suspended for a few months, hence all the usually expected uplift in lead up to drilling was not able to be realised. TANGIERS came out of suspension a few days ago, and with drilling only weeks away, we think this coiled spring effect will be impressive to watch. This forms part of our 20% chance at a 100-bagger theory. This opportunity has suited our investment strategy. Remember it's up to you to decide whether this is part of yours. More details later on in the article. Countdown to estimated start date of drilling by TANGIERS in TAO-1 Tangiers Petroleum (ASX:TPT, AIM:TPET) To stay up to date will all the latest TANGIERS news, follow them on Twitter or like them on Facebook. Are you a TANGIERS investor and want to spread the word? Let everyone know about TANGIERS and share this article by clicking the buttons below: FacebookEmailLinkedInTwitter Our Track Record Regular readers are well aware of The Next Oil Rush 'tip of the decade' – TSX:AOI – Back in February 2012 The Next Oil Rush called it at around CAD$1.8 and has been as high as CAD$11.25 since – that's over 600%! TPT_MA1_014 The Results Next Door – What does it mean for TANGIERS? When we mentioned there is a scramble by oil majors to explore in offshore Morocco – we weren't kidding. Any drilling action (and especially positive discoveries) in nearby blocks is always a bonus. Earlier this year, Cairn Energy and Genel Energy jointly drilled the Juby Maritime-1 (JM-1) well on the Cap Juby prospect – this is on the same hydrocarbon system as TANGIERS upcoming TAO-1 well, as shown in the graphic below: TPT_MA1_015 What Cairn and Genel discovered in JM-1 was confirmation of a large heavy oil discovery in good quality reservoir in the Upper Jurassic and tight reservoir in the Middle Jurassic. We know that the way the carbonates were deposited at TANGIERS' acreage is different and more likely to result in better quality reservoir. TANGIERS seismic inversion work confirmed this. Seismic inversion analysis predicts where good quality reservoir may exist based on previous well results. The Cairn & Genel joint venture confirmed a very large step out in the Cap Juby field in the Jurassics which is heavy oil – so Cap Juby is probably going to be a lot bigger than they think, which is good news. Remember, the original discovery well flowed at 2,400bpd, despite being 12 degree API (heavy!) Light oil argument is strong for TANGIERS Cap Juby was once very close to the land surface as indicated by tertiary unconformity – this allowed bacteria to contaminate and then eat the light oil. Bacteria eating oil? Yes – this actually happens. You can see in the diagram above that TAO-1 has thick cretaceous cover, so risk of contamination is very low – no erosional event as at Cap Juby, no oil / cash eating bacteria to spoil our investment. TANGIERS Reservoir risk has been mitigated The geological model gives encouragement for decent quality reservoir. This is backed up by amplitudes on the seismic as well as seismic inversion work. The seismic inversion work predicted that the middle Jurassic at Cap Juby would be a poor reservoir... and it was. This same work predicts that reservoir quality at TANGIERS' location is better. TPT_MA1_016 Tangiers Petroleum (ASX:TPT, AIM:TPET) To stay up to date will all the latest TANGIERS news, follow them on Twitter or like them on Facebook. Are you a TANGIERS investor and want to spread the word? Let everyone know about TANGIERS and share this article by clicking the buttons below: FacebookEmailLinkedInTwitter A 20% chance at a 100-bagger? We aren't making this up. Here's why: Look, we realise that this sounds like a pretty "blue sky" proposition – but have a look at our reasoning and calculations below, even if this investment achieves a fraction of this result we will be very happy. These calculations were part of our decision to invest in TANGIERS. You need to decide whether it's part of your investment strategy too. For our newer readers, it's important to note that we invest in every stock we write about as a long term hold – we take our positions in our stocks for at least 6 to 12 months – for more information please see our Financial Services Guide and Disclosure Policy. Here is our purchase contract for TANGIERS: 1 Aside from us investing, we also discovered that the Managing Director of TANGIERS (David Wall) recently stumped up around AUD $200k of his own cash to invest in the recent placement. We found this while we were digging through public company filings: TPT_MA1_018 Management investing in the company they are running is always a big vote of confidence to us. Don't forget to ask a Broker Remember, we always use a broker who knows the companies we cover inside and out. If you would like an introduction to our broker for TANGIERS – just fill in your details below and we well pass them directly to the broker. INTRODUCE ME TO THE STOCKBROKER WHO IS AN EXPERT IN THIS STOCK If you want to be introduced to the broker who manages The Next Oil Rush's investment in this stock, please fill out the form below and we will make the introduction. The Next Oil Rush always uses a full service broker when making investments. We have identified the best broker for this stock, who knows the company inside and out and spends a lot of time researching and following the stock. Why we use a full service broker - find out more -------- Capital to Invest* ---------- Under $20k $20k - $100k $100k - $500k $500k - $1M $1M - $5M $5M - $10M Above $10M ---------- Investor Type* ------------ Private Investor Fund Manager Sophisticated Investor NOTE: We greatly respect and value your privacy. We are just making an introduction here, the information you provide in this form will be sent to the broker so they can contact you and have a basic idea of your investment profile. We will not use this information in anyway. Read Privacy Policy To demonstrate the upside potential inherent in TANGIERS, it's necessary to look at another explorer, FAR Ltd, who are listed on the ASX. FAR are currently in the middle of a drilling campaign off the coast of Senegal. Not so long ago, FAR were capped at around AUD $50 million. (We'll do the calculation in AUD. For our UK readers, remember that 1 AUD buys about 0.55 GBP, so just halve the numbers for an approximate indication) In the lead up to drilling, FAR reached a market cap of $150 million – a 200% gain. Now that drilling has actually commenced, FAR is hovering around a market cap of $100 million: TPT_MA1_019 FAR's share price climbed quickly in the lead up to their spudding – a phase TANGIERS has NOT been able to experience for the last few months due to its voluntary suspension. TANGIERS has just come back on to the market – and has all the potential to explode in value just like FAR has. But it gets better for TANGIERS investors. Like TANGIERS, FAR is also focused on African oil and is currently in the drilling phase in Senegal with its farm out partners Cairn, ConocoPhillips and Petrosen. This group will be drilling two exploration wells off the coast of Senegal, where FAR have a working interest of 15%: TPT_MA1_020 This group of companies are drilling two exploration wells, in total, FAR have a net target of 225 million barrels: TPT_MA1_021 Based on the fiscal terms of Senegal, water depths, capital costs, operating costs and the price of oil, it's reasonable to assume a net present value of $10 / barrel to FAR. Now if FAR are successful, that would be 225 million barrels x $10 a barrel = $2.25 billion. So the potential uplift from a $150 million pre-drill market cap to $2.25 billion would make it a 15 bagger. Pretty impressive stuff for FAR investors... but take a look at this: Let's run the same calculations for TANGIERS. TANGIER's net target is 190 million barrels in the upcoming drill, using the conservative P50 estimate of 758mmbbl for TAO-1 (most peers use the Pmean number – which for TANGIERS is a whopping 1.6b barrels!) As Morocco is an attractive place to invest and the drilling is in shallow water (that makes things a lot cheaper) it's safe to assume a net present value of $17 / barrel to TANGIERS. If TANGIERS are successful, 190 million barrels x $17 a barrel = $3.23 Billion TANGIER's current market cap is a measly $32 million. From these current low levels, if TANGIERS are successful, it would be better than a 100 bagger. The potential uplift is far greater with TANGIERS, than it is to the similar African oil and gas company, FAR. Here the figures are, side by side: TPT_MA1_022 For both companies these are exploratory wells, and follow up wells will need to be completed, but the stark contrast in potential uplift remains. Plus, with a 20% chance of geological success, TANGIERS investors like us essentially are faced with a one in five bet on a potential 100 bagger from current trading levels. This suited our investment strategy – think about whether it suits yours. Like we said before – this is a blue sky calculation, we would be happy with even a FRACTION of this result. So, not only are we adding TANGIERS as a long term addition to our portfolio – we're looking at it as a bloody good bet too. TANGIERS just came out of voluntary suspension – all that pent up energy in pre-drill buzz is now squashed into just a few weeks in the lead up to spudding. Countdown to estimated start date of drilling by TANGIERS in TAO-1 To stay up to date will all the latest TANGIERS news, follow them on Twitter or like them on Facebook. Our Track Record Did you receive the Next Oil Rush article on WHL Energy (ASX:WHN)? Since this article was released, WHN has been as high as 80%: TPT_MA1_023 The past performance of this product is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance. TANGIERS stands out against the other African drills So now we've learnt what TANGIERS looks like in comparison to FAR, but what about other companies exploring offshore Africa? Our team of analysts loves getting into the nitty gritty of each of our investments – they ran the numbers on TANGIERS and we were pleasantly surprised. Once again, TANGIERS is looking like a stand out investment looking at the uplift multiple (note – these are internal calculations, remember to do your own calculations and research!): TPT_MA1_024 Now do you see why TANGIERS' voluntary suspension was a red rag to us rather than a red flag? TPT_MA1_025 Tangiers Petroleum (ASX:TPT, AIM:TPET) To stay up to date will all the latest TANGIERS news, follow them on Twitter or like them on Facebook. Are you a TANGIERS investor and want to spread the word? Let everyone know about TANGIERS and share this article by clicking the buttons below: FacebookEmailLinkedInTwitter A hole in one on the Jurassic carbonate fairway? The biggest catalyst for TANGIERS is the spudding of its TAO-1 exploration well in just a few weeks' time. TANGIERS chose the TAO-1 drill location in order to test 3 stacked targets within the Jurassic carbonate fairway. These plays are Trident, TMA and Assaka. Netherland Sewell and Associates independently assessed the primary Jurassic prospects from the 3D seismic data. You can see the prospect estimates listed in the table below: TPT_MA1_026 Adding up all three targets in the Best Estimate column, the gross un-risked prospective resource is 758 million barrels. Net to TANGIERS is 25%, so that makes it 190 million barrels of targets all for TANGIERS. Remember this drilling event is just weeks away. TANGIERS will be drilling in very shallow water with a maximum depth of just 100m which significantly reduces costs. Previous tests of the area have shown overlying Cretaceous sediment and an absence of salt in the area, meaning it's unlikely the drill results will produce heavy oil. TPT_MA1_027 Trident is TANGIERS' prime drilling target and this prospect was confirmed and further defined on the 3D seismic data from 3D seismic data recently acquired in 2012. They have been studying this data for some time and determined the drill location where they feel they are most likely to succeed. This location will also hit the other two targets at the same time. Unlike its peers, TANGIERS has not published a mean (or expected) prospective resource. We're no mathematicians but a simple use of Swanson's Mean calculation (which is conservative) gives us a mean of 1.6 billion barrels for TAO-1. Swanson's mean? This is a calculation of 0.3P10 + 0.4P50 + 0.3P90, and gives a conservative estimate of the mean values for modestly skewed distributions. That makes this well the biggest target to be drilled in offshore Morocco in the next two years. It also increases the net resource potential for TANGIERS from 190MMbbl to 400MMbbl and double the possible value on success to $8 Billion. The purpose of drilling at TAO-1 first, is that this well will allow investigation of the shallower Assaka prospect at the same time as the deeper prospects – they sit right on top of each other. Three stacked objectives, each section pierced one after the other and evaluated over the course of the drilling... this should provide a steady stream of news flow over the coming months... Countdown to estimated start date of drilling by TANGIERS in TAO-1 Our Track Record: Did you see The Next Oil Rush report on Swala Energy (ASX:SWE)? SWE has traded as high as 150% since: TPT_MA1_028 The past performance of this product is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance. TANGIERS – Early movers in Morocco TANGIERS has a 25% working interest in the Tarfaya Offshore Block, an area of more than 11,000km² that it's currently exploring in Morocco and the site on which it plans to spud within the coming weeks. This area has emerged as an exploration 'hotspot' lately and TANGIERS got in on the action early. TPT_MA1_029 TANGIERS acquired its portion of the offshore block nearly five years ago, with Moroccan state controlled ONHYM owning 25% of the JV and €10 billion energy giant Galp Energia making up the final 50% as the operator. TANGIERS farmed out to Galp to the tune of US$33 million in carry plus another US$7.5 million in back costs. Under the deal, which was made at the end of last year, TANGIERS retains a 25% interest in the Tarfaya Offshore Block, Galp get 50% and the remaining 25% interest goes to ONHYM. So in total, Galp has to pay US$40.5M towards this deal which will go directly towards drilling the TAO-1 well in Morocco: TPT_MA1_030 The Moroccan government has approved the deal and given the JV until February 2015 to evaluate TAO-1 well results to decide whether to extend drilling. So not only has TANGIERS got the potential to confirm some big resource targets in its first Moroccan well but it could potentially come back for more. The project is on track after the Moroccan National Office of Hydrocarbons and Mines gave its final approval relating to the farm-out agreement between TANGIERS and Galp. This final approval means Galp can now reimburse TANGIERS US$7.5M for back costs, which will help the company to make up its 33% share of costs for the TAO-1 well: TPT_MA1_031 When this agreement was finalised, the director of TANGIERS commented "The TAO-1 well is a potential company-making opportunity so we are delighted that the final approval has been granted and that the well is on track to be spudded next month (June 2014)." The farm out deal has certainly helped fund the upcoming drill, however, if there are cost overruns, TANGIERS is obliged to pay 33% in excess of the US$33 million budget. In order to cover these costs, TANGIERS recently raised some extra cash: TPT_MA1_032 Now all TANGIERS investors like us need do is sit back and watch as the drill hunts down those 190 million net barrels... Countdown to estimated start date of drilling by TANGIERS in TAO-1 Moroccan farm-out activity has never been busier Offshore Morocco is now an aquatic boom town. TANGIERS isn't the only one involved in farm-outs – Morocco has been very popular for this type of activity as of late. There has been a farm-out frenzy along the Moroccan Atlantic margin over the past two years which has lead to multiple drills scheduled in offshore Morocco in 2014. Galp isn't entering into a farm-in deal with only TANGIERS, it's also got ties to Kosmos, Cairn Energy, Genel Energy and Freeport McMoRan that are all operating in this area. Galp is a huge oil major with deep pockets, it has enough cash to access a shared port, warehouse, storage and berthing facilities in Agadir, Morocco – and TANGIERS can get in on these benefits thanks to its deal with Galp. And these benefits include pushing operating costs lower because there are multiple companies in on the action, and ample infrastructure to support them. It's win-win for all. TPT_MA1_033 Our Track Record Did you receive The Next Small Cap report on Core Exploration (ASX:CXO)? Since this report was released, CXO has traded up to 85% higher. TPT_MA1_034 The past performance of this product is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance. Investing in Morocco – North African's oil hot spot When you think of oil, we're guessing the usual suspects spring to mind. America, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Canada and Venezuela. So why add Morocco to the list? Easy. Because it has high potential and has been severely underexplored in the past decades. The offshore Cap Juby oil field was previously discovered in the 1960s but the area has been relatively unexplored. Geologists are confident there is more oil down below and just waiting to be tapped. TPT_MA1_035 In fact, only one well has been drilled in the area for every 10,000km²... and when you compare this to the global average of 80 wells per 10,000 km2, you start to get the picture of just what kind of potential is sitting around and waiting to be discovered in Morocco. But that's not all. Only eight wells have been drilled since 2000 and technology has advanced since then, furthermore you can't even compare it to the technology that was around in the 1960s when oil was first tapped in the area. Now there's modern 3D seismic mapping to greatly improve the accuracy of hitting drilling targets and far advanced drilling techniques to pump the stuff out. All these facts have got us interested in the wealth of potential there is to be found in Morocco. But what about the country's stability? Before we invested, we certainly investigated the stability in the region. Thankfully, Morocco is one of the most stable countries in Africa. It was the only northern African country not affected by the Arab Spring – and this can only be seen as an added tick against Morocco's continuous stability. Not only this, but according to advisory services firm KPMG, Morocco 'actively seeks foreign investment' so you can invest in Morocco knowing the government has got your back. Geoff Porter, the Founder of North Africa Risk Consulting, was even recently quoted as saying that 'Morocco is a hive of activity' while other northern countries like Libya and Algeria are looking 'less appealing than they have done for five years'. In fiscal terms, Morocco is also being seen as a world-class country for oil. Damon Neaves, Managing Director of Pura Vida Energy, recently explained to that "the fiscal terms in Morocco are as good as you'll find anywhere in the world. If you compare a barrel of oil in the ground in Morocco, then it is worth more than it is just about anywhere in Africa." So Morocco's oil is not just good in relation to Africa, but it's one of the best in the world. And it's not simply oil that's attracting smart-thinking investors – manufacturing in Morocco is booming too. Why? Investors are siting Morocco's 'political stability, steady economic growth, its thriving port and a strategic geographic position'. Of course, all of these positives aren't just great for manufacturers – they're perfect for oil investors too! For oil companies, its gets better... There's a tiny 10% royalty on oil that's discovered at less than a 200m water depth – that's exactly what TANGIERS are going after. Tie this in with the fact that foreign oil companies are given a 10 year corporate tax holiday from the first production and 35% thereafter and you can see why Morocco is one of the most fiscally favourable countries in the world to explore. TPT_MA1_036 Finally, when considering fiscal terms, capital and operating costs, the net present value of oil is US$17/bbl in Morocco. This means that any big oil discoveries found are going to be relatively cheap to get on to the market – a huge bonus for investors. TPT_MA1_037 Tangiers Petroleum (ASX:TPT, AIM:TPET) To stay up to date will all the latest TANGIERS news, follow them on Twitter or like them on Facebook. Are you a TANGIERS investor and want to spread the word? Get the message out there – make sure everyone knows about TANGIERS: FacebookEmailLinkedInTwitter Blast from the past brings riches to Moroccan oil companies So what exactly is the Jurassic carbonate fairway? Good question, and get ready for the answer because it'll knock your socks off. Basically, in the late Jurassic period Africa, South America and North America were all joined as one big super-continent. Over the millions of years that have since gone by, as we know, this super-continent has broken apart and slowly drifted away from the other pieces, with Africa moving the farthest. During this early stage of rifting, Jurassic source rock was created extensively underground and this produced carbonate platforms which make it the perfect underground source for oil. In Nova Scotia, Canada, this has already been proven with companies like Abenaki Pm, Sable and Panuke Gas discovering the riches the Jurassic Carbonate Fairway can bring. TPT_MA1_038 In Nova Scotia so far 127 exploration wells have been constructed offshore in an area close to Sable Island and more than 8 billion barrels of oil have been discovered. Like in Morocco, this area is also shallow, creating small-scale traps that have great oil potential, according to the Nova Scotia government. Shell Canada has taken advantage of the potential and has invested more than $970M into its Nova Scotia project! But that's not all – BP has also seized the opportunity to make big bucks there and signed a deal worth $1.05BN to explore the area. Yes, you read correctly – ONE BILLION DOLLARS. In total, more than $2BN has been invested in the area, showing there is a lot of faith in the promise of first-grade oil to be discovered on this Jurassic strip. Because all signs are pointing to the Jurassic gigaplatform as being the source for this oil. This is great for Morocco because it is a conjugate with Nova Scotia and is believed to share its Jurassic gold, hence the raft of majors piling in after TANGIERS in order to drill offshore in this region. Can the riches found off Nova Scotia also be discovered in Morocco? TANGIERS and Galp are convinced they can be – in a few weeks we should have a bit more knowledge. Our Track Record Did you receive The Next Small Cap article on Segue Resources (ASX:SEG)? Since this article was released, SEG has been up as high as 130%. TPT_MA1_039 The past performance of this product is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance. TANGIERS has one of the best blocks of the lot At TANGIER's Tarfaya Block, four wells have so far been drilled and although none of the current targets were penetrated, three out of these four wells have oil shows. The great news is that the water depth here is shallow – less than 200m – and this means drilling shouldn't be too expensive using a jack up rig, a bonus for TANGIERS investors. If we need any encouragement that TANGIERS is going to find success with its TAO-1 venture, we only have to look at what happened in the past in its neighbour's backyard. TPT_MA1_040 The oil discovery in the adjacent Juby Maritime Block in 1969, when drilling first began in the area, the MO-2 well (marked yellow in the map above) was gushing at over 2,000 barrels a day with 12°API oil. Then, three years later, its MO-8 well (in yellow also) discovered 38.5°API oil. And it doesn't end there – this year the JM-1 well has been confirmed oil in the upper Jurassic too – right near where TAO-1 is located. TPT_MA1_041 All these promising discoveries surrounding TAO-1... what will TANGIERS uncover? Countdown to estimated start date of drilling by TANGIERS in TAO-1 TANGIER'S undervalued price may not be around for long When an oil company is about to drill and potentially strike riches, there's normally a buzz on the market with increased attention and liquidity on the company. Let's face it, most people want exposure to the potential upside on a mind blowingly successful drill campaign. However, the TANGIERS buzz hasn't come about thanks to its lengthy voluntary suspension, which began in February 2014. In the three months of lost trading, the company has been temporarily overlooked... but the high leverage to success remains. TANGIERS is now back on form after this suspension now that it's hired two new Directors at the beginning of April and a Managing Director in mid-April. TANGIERS was extremely careful about selecting these new team members and the three have brought with them a wealth of experience. TPT_MA1_042 The new Managing Director, David Wall, is a leading oil and gas equity analyst and has had vast experience working with oil and gas companies, focusing on Africa. A perfect match for company about to drill off the coast of Morocco then! Importantly, Wall has successfully led around $300M in capital raisings, which must have come in handy during the recent TANGIERS capital raising. TPT_MA1_043 Also joining the team is Dr Stephen Staley, who is now a Director at TANGIERS. Staley brings with him more 30 years of management and technical experience from the European, African and Asian oil, gas and power sectors. He's also an expert in geology, with a PhD in Petroleum Geology – we're sure his expertise will come in handy as TANGIERS moves ahead with its African projects. And last, but certainly not least, comes Michael Evans, a Chartered Accountant and a newly appointed Director to the TANGIERS board. Evans has been working in the natural resources sector for the past 30 years, but most importantly he was formerly the founding Executive Chairman of ASX oil and gas explorer FAR Ltd (ASX: FAR). With the search for new management and associated suspension, TANGIERS has ended up being completely overlooked in the lead up to drilling. And with the company about to spud in a few weeks' time, they remain completely undervalued on the eve of such a big company making event. TANGIERS is targeting 190M barrels and has a geological chance of success estimated at 20% – in a few weeks' time spudding will occur and we will soon know a lot more about what secrets the Tarfaya Block holds... TANGIERS ticks our boxes The team at The Next Oil Rush has spent many years investing in stocks with the goal of achieving long term value. Our hard earned wisdom is your gain – we've written the book on how to make money from junior resource stocks and a big thing we rely on is our pre-investment checklist. TPT_MA1_044 You'll have to read the book to know them all, but here are a few from our list for TANGIERS: 1. Price Catalysts – This one is obvious – a drilling event that the eyes of African oil investors will be watching – a 1 in 5 bet on a 100 bagger... the potential uplift will soon be a lot clearer once the well spuds. We have invested in TANGIERS on the strength of this – you need to decide whether it's the kind of invest-ment that is right for you. 2. Market Sector – Morocco is a hive of drilling activity, majors have bought up big in the area, determined to be the first to find commercial quantities of oil. Morocco is one of the hottest regions in the world right now for oil exploration. TANGIERS bought in early and will soon know what secrets their block holds... 3. Political Risk – Normally African countries can have high risk associated with them, but Morocco is relatively stable, has excellent fiscal terms, and welcomes business – these are all positive signs, and when combined with the offshore potential, make Morocco and attractive place to be investing in. What's next for TANGIERS? All TANGIERS's current focus is on its TAO-1 drill which will spud within the coming weeks. This has the potential to unlock significant value if it's successful and we are watching what happens in Morocco carefully. Should the TAO-1 well be deemed successful, TANGIERS will plan an appraisal well in order to move toward commercialisation of any big discoveries. As well as the TAO-1 work, TANGIERS will continue their investigations into the Tarfaya Block – there may be more to find. TPT_MA1_045 TANGIERS are back trading again, completely undervalued due to the past few months in voluntary suspension, recently raised $5 million AUD, and have all the potential of 190 million barrels net. At a $32 M AUD / £ 18 M market cap this is difficult to fathom. But TANGIERS won't just sit back quietly and watch all the action take place in Morocco. It plans to continue to search for new ventures for potential acquisitions so it can continue to grow its portfolio. The low market cap may not last forever, especially if the TAO-1 well can prove up any oil down there... TPT_MA1_046 Tangiers Petroleum (ASX:TPT, AIM:TPET) To stay up to date will all the latest TANGIERS news, follow them on Twitter or like them on Facebook. Are you a TANGIERS investor and want to spread the word? Get the message out there – make sure everyone knows about TANGIERS: FacebookEmailLinkedInTwitter Countdown to estimated start date of drilling by TANGIERS in TAO-1 LATE TO THE PARTY? Be alerted as soon as an article is released – join our mailing list (free!) or like us on Facebook or follow us on Twitter. Have you heard about the Next Investors VIP Club? Joining this Club will give you free access to opportunities not normally available to general retail investors – however you must qualify as a High Net Worth Individual These opportunities are as diverse as stock placements, seed capital raisings, IPOs, options underwritings. Plus a whole host of other high risk, high reward investment opportunities not available to the general public (careful – this stuff is high risk!). Just fill in the form and you will be alerted to the next opportunity. VIP Club I confirm that I qualify The information contained in this article is general information only. Any advice is general advice only. Neither your personal objectives, financial situation nor needs have been taken into consideration. Accordingly you should consider how appropriate the advice (if any) is to those objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. S3 Consortium Pty Ltd (CAR No.433913) is a corporate authorised representative of Avestra Capital Pty Ltd (AFSL No. 292464). Conflict of Interest Notice. S3 Consortium Pty Ltd does and seeks to do business with companies featured in its articles. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this article. Investors should consider this article as only a single factor in making any investment decision. The publishers of this article also wish to disclose that they may hold this stock in their portfolios and that any decision to purchase this stock should be done so after the purchaser has made their own inquires as to the validity of any information in this article. « Previous post Next Post » Tangiers Petroleum Limited Logo Follow Tangiers Petroleum Limited: facebook twitter divider vip-club-lg Join the VIP Club Now For the sophisticated, professional or experienced investor. Enter divider-sm oil-sm elk cleveland trafford orinoco puravida REY Resources Cossack Energy Limited Rampart Citation Resources WHL Energy Limited Real Energy Tangiers Petroleum Coming Soon Coming Soon Coming Soon Coming Soon
travls: Tangiers Petroleum and the interest free loans to directors, to encourage dilution BY BEN TURNEY | THURSDAY 12 JUNE 2014 20 Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. It is an immediate red flag for any stock listed on AIM, which holds its Annual General Meeting thousands of miles away. Irrespective of the nature of duel listings, companies on the London Stock Exchange should be directly accountable to British investors. Where shareholder approval is required, British investors should be given the opportunity to vote for or against proposals concerning the running of their companies. For God's sake, this is the age of the Internet, so why should investors be expected to traipse all the way to the other end of the world, so they can take part in a show of hands vote in Perth, Western Australian? Funnily enough, speaking of Perth, this is exactly where Tangiers Petroleum (TPET) has just held its AGM, at which the board gained approved for approval for the company's new and ludicrously generous Share Plan... In a great triumph (is that the right word?) of shareholder democracy, all of the resolutions at Tangiers' AGM were passed through the support of roughly 30,000,000 shares. When you consider that Tangiers has 178,000,000 shares in issue, this means that 16% of the company's shareholders voted in favour of the proposals put by the board. On its own, this fact is absurd enough, but when you look into the detail of the various resolutions, it quickly becomes apparent what a mockery this is. Most of the resolutions voted on at Tangiers' AGM deserve much closer scrutiny, but the two stand-out items were the adoption by the company of the new Share Plan (Resolution 6) and the share awards and loan made to Managing Director David Wall (Resolution 7). The Share Plan looks like it is going to come back to haunt shareholders. Remember that this is a company, which just loves to issue new shares. Look at the RNS history of Tangiers and you will immediately see the large number of equity issues in the last twelve months or so. Having established its penchant for dilution, it now appears that Tangiers wants to ensure its new directors get in on the act, through interest free loans made by the company. That's right. Cash-strapped and deeply troubled Tangiers, which had issued equity twelve times in the year preceding its latest desperate heavily discounted placement, is now authorised to make interest free loans to its board to allow them to buy shares in the company. Even Bill Kelleher and his fellow directors at New World Oil & Gas had the decency to pay interest on the $1million of loans they took out from their company to allow them to join in a placement party! Full details of the Tangiers Share Plan can be read in the Explanatory Memorandum, which was released with the announcement of the AGM, but suffice to say this plan looks like the epitome of extravagant, risk free and guaranteed rewards for directors, which are the blight of so many companies on AIM. David Wall must have woken up with a decidedly content feeling this morning. Lucky old Mr Wall became Managing Director of Tangiers on April 15th. In the RNS which announced his appointment, shareholders learned that Mr Wall would be paid a salary of $300,000 a year, would be entitled to a performance bonus of up to 50% of base salary and was granted 4.5million shares, subject to shareholder approval. This incredibly generous package, for an embattled company like Tangiers, was always going to raise a few eyebrows. Have a read of the RNS to see the vesting criteria for Mr Wall's 4.5million shares (worth roughly £400,000), but the interesting point about the loan Tangiers is going to make to him is, of course, that it is interest free. Interest free! £400,000!!!! As you can probably guess, I don't plan to put any money into Tangiers. I couldn't care less if the share price goes up from here, as what is clear to me is that anyone who puts money into this company is buying into a lavish executive beneficiary scheme. No thank you! - See more at:
illuminati1: Trading to resume.Excellent!Hunting for elephants offshore MoroccoSector Focus, Investors Chronicle2 April 2014 companies plan to drill as many as 10 exploration wells in Moroccan waters this year as the race to discover the next big oil field off the coast of Africa hots up. Many of the industry's biggest names - BP (BP.) Chevron (US: CVX), Total (FR: PA), Repsol (SP: REP) Kosmos (US: KOS), Anadarko (US: APC) and Galp - (PT: GALP) have snapped up attractive acreage in the emerging jurisdiction in recent years. Dozens of exciting smaller companies have, too.Morocco is still relatively underexplored, with fewer than 40 wells drilled offshore since oil explorers began looking for hydrocarbons there in the late 1960s. In comparison, more than 10,000 have been drilled in the UK Continental Shelf over the same period. Apart from the occasional gas discovery, the vast majority of Moroccan wells have been unsuccessful and, despite big finds in other nearby African nations, the region was widely ignored until recently.Yet advances in prospecting techniques, such as better three-dimensional seismic imaging, and new geologic theories of a link between Morocco and parts of West Africa - and even offshore Brazil - are tempting oil companies to spend hundreds of millions of pounds on high-risk exploration drilling. The North African country also boasts some of the most favourable fiscal terms in the world for oil and gas projects, as it currently imports more than 90 per cent of its gas and 99 per cent of its oil.Last month, Texas-based Kosmos Energy spudded the deep-water Foum Assaka-1 well, in which BP and Aim-traded Fastnet Oil & Gas (FAST) are minority partners. The high-risk, high-reward wildcat well is expected to take three months to complete and the companies hope it will locate a whopping 360m barrels of oil-equivalent (mmboe) resources. The odds of success, however, are estimated at a meagre one-in-10.Interestingly, it was Kosmos's work in the mid-2000s elsewhere in Africa that has led to Morocco's re-emergence as an exploration destination. After enormous oil deposits were found deep beneath the salt layer off the coast of Brazil, Kosmos's geologists had a hunch similar deposits might also be found off the coast of West Africa (in an area called the West African Transform Margin). The two land masses were, after all, once joined before slowly starting to break apart about 200m years ago.Kosmos began looking at Cretaceous-age rock formations offshore Ghana - rocks around 66m to 145m years old - since some of the largest sub-salt oil deposits of Brazil were also found in this rock layer. Oil companies on both sides of the Atlantic had been drilling shallower targets based on unsophisticated two-dimensional seismic data because they were easier to see on charts, but innovations in 3D seismic allowed operators to find deeper, Cretaceous-age reservoir targets more effectively.Kosmos's geologists' theory proved correct, and in 2007 the company discovered the world-class, 600m-barrel Jubilee oil field in waters off Ghana, in partnership with Tullow Oil (TLW) and Anadarko Petroleum.This was followed by Anadarko's Venus gas discovery 1,100 km away offshore Sierra Leone, and a handful of other major discoveries along the West African Trasform Margin. In 2012, African Petroleum had success with the same play offshore Liberia, while Afren (AFR) discovered 774mmboe resources in upper Cretaceous rocks offshore Nigeria last year. In most cases, the original discovery has also been followed up with the successful drilling of smaller targets in the immediate vicinity."As with elephants," says Stuart Amor, head of oil and gas research at broker RFC Ambrian, "petroleum fields tend to be found together. Furthermore, once a particular play type is shown to work, this de-risks the same play type elsewhere. Thus, once a frontier wildcat well makes a discovery, several more successful exploration or appraisal wells tend to follow."This hasn't proved to be the case with Morocco, though - at least not yet. Yes, explorers have followed the West African Transform Margin up and down the western sub-Saharan coast with relative success, but the play type has yet to be proven as far north as Morocco.Two exploration wells earlier this year, drilled by Cairn Energy (CNE) and Genel Energy (GENL), failed to find commercial quantities of hydrocarbons. One of the wells had been targeting a different play type - the Upper Jurassic and Middle Jurassic - but the other was targeting "Late Jurassic" and Early/Lower Cretaceous reservoirs. It did not encounter good-quality reservoir rock but, encouragingly, there were some gas shows which confirms a deepwater hydrocarbon system in the area.The main target for Kosmos's well, currently drilling, is the mid-Cretaceous formation. The well will also test two other intervals at the same time, the Lower Cretaceous (recently targeted by Cairn) and a shallower Tertiary play (from the younger Paleogene period, between 65m and 23m years ago).Below, we provide a brief profile of London-listed oil companies with exposure to upcoming exploration in Morocco.Fastnet Oil & Gas (FAST)Dublin-based, Aim-traded Fastnet holds a 9.4 per cent net interest in Kosmos's Foum Assaka block and is carried through its share of the drilling costs of the FD-1 well. Fastnet also holds an interest in several early-stage exploration licences onshore Morocco, as well as acreage offshore Ireland, where it is currently looking for farm-in partners.Tangiers Petroleum (TPET)Perth-based Tangiers has a dual listing on Aim and Australia's securities exchange. The small exploration company bought the rights to the huge Tarfaya block offshore Morocco in 2009, and signed up Portugal's Galp Energia last year to pay for exploration drilling. Tangiers is left with a 25 per cent interest in the licence and its portion of the costs for the first exploration well, due to spud in the second quarter of 2014, are covered. The well is primarily targeting a monstrous 867mmboe resource in four stacked prospects, all of which are in the Upper to Lower Jurassic formations. However, Tangiers says its geologists have already identified additional leads in the shallower Cretaceous formation. Early assessment by Tangiers indicates that the Cretaceous may contain prospective resources similar to the Jurassic.BP (BP.)Oil major BP struck a deal with Kosmos Energy last year to acquire a minority, non-operated interest in three blocks off the coast of Morocco totalling more than 25,000 sq km. Drilling success is unlikely to significantly impact BP's share price due to the company's size, but spokesman Robert Wine said of the deal at the time: "It fits with our exploration strategy of looking for significant opportunities in new basins."Genel Energy (GENL)Genel's first exploration well in Morocco, drilled earlier this year in partnership with Cairn Energy on the Juby Maritime licence, was a duster (a dry well). But the Kurdistan-focused oil group still has majority interests in two other big offshore blocks in the country. Exploration wells are planned on both the Sidi Moussa and Mir Left licences during 2014. We note, however, that Genel is "specifically focusing on the proven hydrocarbon system in offshore Morocco associated with Jurassic carbonates", rather than the unproven Cretaceous play that we are more interested in.Cairn Energy (CNE)Cairn has completed its drill programme in Morocco for 2014 and has yet to announce any plans to further explore its licences there.Serica Energy (SQZ) and San Leon Energy (SLE)Aim minnows Serica and San Leon were understandably disappointed with the unsuccessful exploration well drilled last year on Cairn's Foum Draa licence - Serica and San Leon held an 8 per cent and 14 per cent minority stake, respectively. There's still hope, however. Genel plans to drill a well on its Sidi Moussa licence later this year, and Serica and San Leon hold a 5 per cent and 8.5 per cent interest in that licence, too.Chariot Oil & Gas (CHAR)Chariot holds interests in three early-stage licences offshore Morocco, but seismic work is not complete and drilling is not expected until 2016 at the earliest.Gulfsands Petroleum (GPX) and Circle Oil (COP)Both companies own extensive acreage onshore Morocco, where they are exploring for shallow gas deposits. Gulfsands is a rather new entrant, having acquired most of its acreage in December 2012, but Circle Oil is already producing around 7m cubic feet per day from its fields, generating about $20m (£12m) in revenue per year.FAVOURITEWe think Kosmos' Moroccan Cretaceous targets are the most prospective of the bunch, and Fastnet offers a cheap way to gain heavy exposure to the play. At 10p a share, Fastnet's shares are trading at a substantial discount to broker Cantor Fitzgerald's core value of 16.5p a share and 28p estimate of risked net asset value. However, on the admittedly small chance drilling is successful at FD-1 next month, Cantor estimates Fastnet's share of a discovery could be worth 34p a share fully de-risked. Ahead of drill results, we rate the shares a speculative buy.OUTSIDERChariot Oil has been restocking its exploration portfolio with early-stage licences ever since its shares nose-dived in 2012 following unsuccessful drilling offshore Namibia. Chariot now has interests in three Moroccan near-shore blocks far to the north, reportedly prospective for a mix of Jurassic, Cretaceous and Tertiary plays. Drilling is not expected until 2016 at the earliest, though, and remains subject to farm-out deals being completed. In the meantime, catalysts for the shares to re-rate are hard to spot.THE BROKERS' VIEWAs a significant proportion of North Africa struggles with political unrest and growing investor uncertainty, Morocco's oil and gas sector has come to the fore, with the arrival of international majors and independents in search of Africa's next big hydrocarbon province. Material discoveries offshore Brazil have raised hopes that similar hydrocarbon formations lie unexploited off the African coast. In addition, early finds offshore Ghana and Angola have further attracted the interest of majors with deep-water experience.After modest interest over the past 10 years, 2013 saw a number of significant entrants to both onshore and offshore licences. BP, Chevron, Kosmos and Cairn have all announced new projects or farm-ins in the past six months alone, illustrating a rapid increase in corporate appetite for the region. These major players have commenced targeting the country's potentially significant resource base, particularly offshore with more than 10 wells planned this year.Equity investors looking for an entry point into Moroccan explorers can sufficiently de-risk their positions while still benefiting from the potential upside any discovery would yield. On the smaller end, Fastnet Oil & Gas has materially de-risked its exposure both financially and geologically. The company successfully executed a farm-out of its interest in the Foum Assaka licence, gaining up to a two-well carry on the drilling costs. The FA-1 well, which is currently drilling, will target three formations, one of which has a prospective resource base of 360mmboe alone - on that basis, we believe Fastnet's share price represents a compelling entry point ahead of drilling results this summer.On the larger end of the scale, investors can gain exposure to this up-and-coming hydrocarbon province through BP, Kosmos, Cairn and Chevron - all having key acreage and healthy balance sheets to fund frontier exploration.Sam Wahab is a research analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald
illuminati1: Pre-Drill Multi-Bagging HypothesisTangiers the next TRP...Seekingalpha -- January 5, 2014 -- Editors' Note: This article covers a stock trading at less than $1 per share and/or with less than a $100 million market cap. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks. The purpose of this article is to explain and apply a phenomenon known as "Pre-Drill Multi-Bagging Hypothesis" to Taipan Resources that is currently entering into the pre-drill time frame (where this phenomenon typically begins to very significantly impact the share price upward). Introduction to the Pre-Drill Multi-Bagging Hypothesis Small cap exploration companies approaching their first big drilling event can experience exponential share price growth even before the risky drilling process begins. We will be taking a look at the theory behind this phenomenon, the criteria needed for it to happen, some past and current examples of how it impacted the pre-drill share price and how Taipan Resources is the next stand-out candidate to experience this phenomenon in the West African exploration region in 2014. The theory behind the surge in a small cap resource stock before its first big drilling event is that the market begins to price the chances of an oil discovery into the share price. Although 'wildcat' drilling by small cap resource stocks is risky, the market does not want to miss out on a discovery if one occurs. So in the two to six months preceding the drilling, the share price begins to reflect a "Risked" element of a discovery, that is, the chance of an oil discovery multiplied by the oil volumetric potential. A basic Risked NPV for the upcoming drilling can be estimated as follows: RNPV = S x NPVb x GCoS This is really a much simpler formula than it looks. Let's explain the four components: 1. RNPV = The Risked Net Present Value of the Prospect 2. S = The Size of the Prospect 3. NPVb = The Net Present Value per recoverable barrel of oil 4. GCoS = Geological Chance of Success Now let's take a look at some of the inputs to the above. But first a little on "oil finding" geology Figuring out the mean resource size on a drill prospect can be a tricky exercise undertaken by the company geology team. World class experts such as Sproule World Wide Consultants can often be engaged to also acquire an independent estimate. It requires some good seismic data on the prospect and often complex simulation software such as Monte Carlo or GeoX is used to calculate GCoS. The all important seismic data will show the general size of the prospect and hopefully some good shale-sand intervals, traps, faults, four-way closures, bounding faults etc. Inputs to the GCoS estimate include source, reservoir and trap. As the old Amoco adage goes: "It's all about source rock, the rest is just details." Source can be evidenced perhaps by oil seeps, nearby oil or gas shows in previous wells or a big 'outcrop' visible at surface showing big shale-sand intervals. Traps or seals are typically formed where a big non-porous shale rock overlies a porous sandstone reservoir. They can also be created by faulting, where, after some tectonic shifting, the non-porous shale section in the fault lies alongside the porous oil bearing reservoir, thus preventing further migration or 'breaching' of the reservoir. Other factors such as known porosity or permeability from previous wells in the area might indicate the potential rate of oil recovery in the event of a discovery. Primary recovery factors around 15-20% would be seen as normal in a conventional well but certain stimulation techniques such as gas or CO2 injection can improve the prospect economics in the event of developing a discovery. In terms of chance of success for 'wildcat' wells, nothing more than 30% is ever really credible amongst the geologist community, unless there's an outstanding prospect with multiple stacked horizons and proof of source rock. The more different aged horizons and traps in your drill, the higher your chance of success. Taipan has already fully mitigated the pre-drill funding risk The first risk that small caps need to avoid is that they do not default due to lack of cash before drilling which often happens. As was indicated in the first article, Taipan is fully carried for its entire well drilling program on their Block 2B and only have a 20% contribution for the drill that will take place on their Block 1. Once the risk of default is eliminated and it's established that they will get their shot at the big time, then fulfilling the following three crucial criteria ensures the share price can begin to reflect the risked net present value (RNPV) of the prospect: 1) Big credible partners The small cap exploration company must entice some big credible drilling partner (known as a farminee). They must convince their farminee that the geological argument for their play-type is sound. Having a big well respected exploration company farm into the prospect provides equity investment firms such as BlackRock, JPMorgan, Henderson Global, with the "third party (put your money where your mouth is) validation" they need to invest in the small cap explorer's stock pre-drilling. This institutional interest is one of the drivers of the Pre-Drilling Multi-Bagger Hypothesis. 2) Well funded The small cap exploration company needs to have plenty of cash on hand, enough to fund the drill and ideally the big partners they have convinced to join them in the block are paying for it by 'carrying' the small company through drilling costs. Such is the case with Taipan Resources as discussed in the previous article. 3) Prolific acreage with big prospect size Big prospects on prolific or 'new idea' prospective acreage is what drives big companies to farm into acreage with a small company. The country might have had a few recent oil discoveries or the new idea might be that the country's oil play-type might be analogous to oil discoveries in a similar geological setting (such as the idea that Offshore Namibia could yield similar discoveries to Offshore Brazil as they were both once part of the Pangea super-continent). Some Examples of the Pre-Drill Multi-Bagger Hypothesis Let's examine some past and present examples and their key success factors in causing this multi-bagging of their share price to occur: 1) Africa Oil Corporation (AOI.V) Block 10BB - 50% 'Ngamia' Drill Onshore Kenya •Share price rise: $1.18 CAD Aug '11 to $1.97 Feb '12 (~67%) •Big Partner: Tullow Oil Plc (TLW.L) •Funding: Tullow Oil were carrying Africa Oil for drilling Ngamia. •Prolific acreage or credible idea: The Albertine Basin in Uganda was a similar aged East African Tertiary aged rift basin, where Tullow Oil and Heritage Oil struck oil along the basin bounding fault. The same play type was to be applied in the successful Ngamia-1 in the Kenyan Lokichar basin. NOTE: Africa Oil's share price is currently $9.26 2) Pancontinental Oil and Gas (PCL.AX) Block L8 - 15% 'Mbawa' Offshore Kenya •Share price rise: $0.07AUD Dec '11 to $0.22 Aug 12 (~200%) •Big Partner: Apache Oil Corp. (APA), Origin Energy Ltd. (ORG.ASE) and Tullow Oil (TLW.L) •Funding: Tullow Oil were paying for PCL's drilling to a cap of $60million gross. •Prolific acreage or credible idea: Big gas discoveries were made to the South in Tanzania and Mozambique while Kenya Onshore had produced its first oil discovery (Ngamia-1). 3) Tower Resources Plc (TRP.L) 30% 'Welwitschia' Offshore Namibia (spudding Mar 2014) •Share price rise (to date): 1.22p Oct 13 to 4.8p Dec 13 (~300%) •Big Partner: Repsol (OTCQX:REPYY) •Funding: 2 fund raisings totaling $18 million in 2013, plus 10% further farm down on the way. •Prolific acreage or credible idea: The credible idea is that Namibia was once linked to Brazil and big offshore Brazil oil discoveries can be repeated on the Namibian side of the Atlantic. The recent HRT (HRTP3:BZ) Wingat-1 well encountered two encouraging oil generating source rocks in blocks South of Tower's block. Huge net risked recoverable resource of 496 mmboe, net to Tower, in 4 way dip closures. The huge risked NPV of 'Welwitschia' means the share price could well have a lot more upside in the next 2 months pre-drilling, assuming they secure their farm out. There are many more examples of big rises in share price for small cap resource stocks approaching their first drilling catalyst. A recent Goldman Sachs E&P 50 report showed how in 2010 the capital markets priced in this first drill event up to ten months before drilling but by 2012/2013 this price-in period had shortened to two months prior to 'spud'. We would expand on this by adding the shrewd investor should begin to take their position within six months before drilling in anticipation of the share price rise, depending on the particular play involved. So who's next for the Pre-Drill Risked NPV 'Price-in'? Taipan Resources Inc. (TPN.V) At the current share price of CAD $0.28, Taipan's market capitalisation is a mere CAD$24 million. Taipan has 45% of Onshore Kenya Block 2B and 20% of Block 1, and the gross area of the two blocks would cover Belgium; indeed, they are the fourth largest holder of onshore acreage in Kenya after three multi-billion dollar companies. As mentioned in the first article, there are six exploration wells scheduled this year in the Kenyan region and 2 of these 6 are on Taipan's blocks 1 and 2B. Let's take a look at the big three criteria to set this Pre-Drill Multi-Bagger Hypothesis in motion for Taipan Resources: 1) Big Partners They are partnered with Premier Oil (PMO.L) on Block 2B and Afren (AFR.L) on Block 1. And they have the right management team to find the oil - CEO Maxwell Birley has a 50% wildcat hit rate while exploration manager Paul Logan has a 70% hit rate and was involved in the Ugandan Albertine Basin oil discoveries during his time with the Heritage Oil (HOIL.L)/Tullow Oil joint venture. Intriguingly, Paul Logan joined the Taipan team a few days before they announced the Block 2B farm in with Premier Oil, so whatever impressed Premier about the seismic, Logan was equally buoyant about it. The Risked NPV for Taipan's Pearl prospect on their Block 2B, net to Taipan is $135 million while the Risked NPV for the Khorof prospect on Block 1 is about $30 million. Together they make a Risked NPV of $165 million which is 7 times the current share price. We think over the 6 months preceding Q3 drilling of both prospects, the market will begin to price in most of the $165 million risked element of a discovery. As Max Birley said on a recent conference call, about the Pearl prospect: "if it comes in and you don't bother with the risking, the prospect is potentially worth about $700 million to the company. And that is just one prospect. There are numerous other follow-on leads of the same size or greater that we would then follow up and drill at a later time." 2) Funded drilling There are no questions about funding of drilling on Block 2B as Premier is paying for it as part of their $30.5 million farm in deal struck in October. Management is considering its options for funding 20% of the cost of drilling on Block 1, which include a further farm down of either block or a capital raise. Given the farm down of block 2B crystallized a gross farm down value on block 2B of $55 million, we argue the former option would be the route they take. 3) Prolific acreage Kenya is the new hot spot of world exploration. Since mid-2012 there have been five oil discoveries in the Lokichar basin, one light oil or condensate discovery in the Anza basin and commerciality thresholds have been reached by the Tullow and Africa oil partnership. Some are concerned that there have not been many discoveries outside the Lokichar, but when you look at the evidence, coupled with the scarcity of wells that have been drilled to date, then either the Anza Basin (block 2B) or the Mandera Basin (block 1) which are owned by Taipan Resources, could yet yield many big oil discoveries. Taipan has mentioned there is an updated Sproule report coming out on block 2B soon, but let's for now take a look at what Sproule were saying about Taipan's blocks in June 2012. (The report is about 60 pages long and is available to all on SEDAR. Note that this report was updated before all the Lokichar discoveries were made in the upper and lower tertiary.) Extracts from the Sproule Report: Block 2B: •Sproule identified 17 leads on block 2B, with the top four leads showing 36-40% geological chance of success. •Mean gross prospective resource on Block 2B was 387 million barrels without allowing anything for the tertiary layers, where the Lokichar discoveries are now coming from. •The South Anza Basin (block 2B)has the thickest sedimentary section in the Anza basin. •The only previous well on block 2B, 'Hothori-1' (drilled 1989) had gas shows in the lower tertiary and upper cretaceous and fluorescence in sandstone cuttings "suggested the presence of liquid hydrocarbons" and Sproule's interpretation was that "the well did not penetrate the crest of the anticlinal structure." •Hothori-1 also penetrated a thick lower Cretaceous shale which is a good potential source rock. Block 1: •Potential source rock coming from the 400-700 meter thick Egal Shale, which they say is a potential source rock for the Calub field in the Ogaden basin just north of Block 1 in Ethiopia. •Another important source possibility is the Upper Jurassic as elsewhere in Kenya the "Mtomkuu formation" is very shaly and could be a potential source rock. •Tarbaj oil seep, "appears to be an up-dip subcrop of an easterly plunging structural nose." (the Khorof prospect mapped by Afren is East of this oil seep) •Oil filled fractures in Murri Formation have been documented from an outcrop east of Tarbaj. The Sproule report discussed the history of exploration in Kenya, showing only eight wells had actually been drilled in the Anza Basin (which has an area the size of Texas) in the 1970's and 1980's by a group of companies led by Amoco and Total. Six of them were in the north Anza basin while Anza-1 and Hothori-1 were in the south. However for Anza-1 (which had gas shows and good porosity), Sproule says no closure was evident. While fluorescence indicated oil presence in Hothori-1, Sproule says the crest of the anticlinal structure was not penetrated according to their interpretation. So not only is there a scarcity of wells in the Anza basin, but the limitations of seismic and drilling techniques at the time seem to have handicapped the explorers in their endeavours. In April 2013, BGP (Bureau of Geophysical Prospecting of China) shot the highest ever resolution (560-fold) 2D seismic in Kenya on behalf of Taipan, shooting 800kms on block 2B. The seismic was good enough to secure the farm in of Premier oil and Max Birley confirmed that there were a number of other technically approved farm ins by other companies' exploration teams. Meanwhile on Block 1 Afren have shot 1900kms of seismic and interpretation is ongoing but their latest prospect seems to be the big structure east of the tarbaj oil seep shown on page 46 of their half-yearly presentation (and page 12 of Taipan's). They call the result of the new seismic "an exciting new inventory" from an "under-explored basin."We wrote to Max Birley and asked him about the Sproule report in 2012, Sproule's 2012 view on the tertiary in block 2B, the prospects for oil in the tertiary and the source rock that might feed it. He gave us the following reply: "All the evidence points to Block 2B having been at the centre of a continental depression/rift dominated by lacustrine and fluvial deposition throughout much, if not all of the Tertiary. Sproule's 2012 assertions on the prospectively of the Tertiary section fail to take into account the distribution of well data in the reconstructed palaeo-environment. Wells tend to be drilled on the basin margins, where sections are likely to be sand-dominated and will not reflect the geology in the basin centers. In the numerous discoveries made along the margins of the Albert Basin, in a similar depositional setting, relatively thin shales form effective seals to sizeable oil columns in a sand-dominated section on the basin margin. The source rock responsible for the generation of several billion barrels of oil has yet to be convincingly identified. With respect to Block 2B, the chief risk and unknown variable is the presence of potential lacustrine source rocks in the Tertiary section, but there is no reason to believe that they will not be present. There is strong evidence for marine source rocks in the Cretaceous section, but these may be mature for gas at the present time, although this is not a given. With respect to the Pearl Prospect we can infer from the seismic data that both seal and source horizons are likely to be present within the Tertiary section. The prospect is not dependent on the bounding fault as a four-way dip closure exists." Risks to the Investment Dry wells - The main risk for Taipan is that they hit dry wells in their Quarter 3 2014 drilling program which would result in a big decrease in share price although this article emphasizes the potential for the "Pre-Drilling" share price appreciation. Geopolitical - Geopolitical tensions are also a concern although the Kenyan authorities have proved capable to date in dealing with disputes, especially in Turkana where five discoveries have been made to date. Equity dilution (for fund raising) - There is also a risk of dilution if the company chooses to raise additional funds on the capital markets through an equity issue, rather than opt for the further farm down route. These risks and others are also covered in the first article. Conclusion There are many hoops a "minnow sized" small cap resource stock must jump through to get to that fateful drilling day, such as raising money in an unforgiving market, going through painstakingly detailed farm out processes and all the while managing in-country operations on their blocks. However when the chance of a big drilling event becomes certain with big partners in the eyes of institutional investors, the market begins to price in part or all of the Risked NPV for the prospect which was calculated at $165 million (or about 7 times the value of the current share price). The current "Pre-Drill Multi-Bagging Hypothesis" price-in time horizon seems to be about six months, and uniquely, Taipan Resources has two of those dates with destiny, both beginning in Q3 2014, which at time of writing is just six months away. The idea of the Pre-drilling multi-bagging hypothesis is that an investor can make a multiple return on his capital if he invests in a company that meets the three criteria, and watch their investment rise in the six months prior to drilling. With a Risked NPV of $135 million for the Pearl prospect on block 2B and $30 million for the Khorof prospect on block 1, a fully priced-in risked NPV by drilling date would mean a share price of $1.93 which is a potential multi-bagging of seven times today's share price, with no drilling risk. Of course, we are not claiming that this kind of share price appreciation will occur but have provided examples where very significant pre-drill share price appreciation did occur so the purpose of the article was to broaden the horizons of the reader base that Taipan is poised for a potential significant increase in its share price if what happened to the peer examples happens to them.
cyberdyme: If they annouced new directors then they come out of suspension - then who knows where the share price will go - The JKA holders could then judge on the strength of new management and the tpet share price
ultrapunch: Alex Hawk. Learn to read and use your brain. I said IF the 50 day EMA held. IT DIDN'T!! In fact I tend to use Ichimoku charts (but then only as a guide since news obviously drives share prices, not charts). The Ichimoku chart went weakly bearish at 14.5p on wednesday. In fact the TPET share price has dropped back into the KUMO, on the Ichimoku chart, today. Circa 16m shares list today following on from the circa 16m listing on the 8th (Alex Hawk didn't understand that!! LOL). What will happen to those 32m shares? How many of the initial 16m have been sold, if any, since the 8th? Only 5-6m shares in total have been traded since the 8th. Will the recepients of those 32m shares hold then, sell them at the first opportunity, or wait for good news and sell into share price strength? In other words we could have an 18% share overhang for sometime after tomorrow.
Tangiers share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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