Tclarke Share Discussion Threads

[cc2014] 05/9/2019 10:25

Sad to see you go Rivaldo although good to hear you may be back. I don't think anyone could ever see banking a profit as a bad decision and in uncertain times it's always good to have some cash reserves.


More broadly


I've been investing in shares for more years now than I would like to admit and my spreadsheet shows me the best time to invest is usually when things start to look really bleak. The last time this happenned was during the football about 2 days after the Brexit vote in June 2016. If I remember England were losing to Iceland and the stock market really wasn't very happy. I bought a whole load of stuff during half time of that football match and did very well out of those trades, most of them doubling or tripling within 2 years.

Are we at the maximum point of depresssion now? I'm not sure. If you put me on the spot I'd say this happenned a couple of days ago when cable breached 1.20 and Boris was in full flow. Parliament have found a common enemy in Boris to fight now and finally have found some balls. Boris is in a hurry to get a solution, which is good as markets like certainty and all parties and a number of heavywight politicians are finally getting off the fence and making things happen.

When you have a new PM wanting an election and the opposition parties who are not in power turning him down you know something signifcant has changed in politics.


I see money being pulled out of bonds over the last few days and flowing to equities. Bargain hunting I think as investors risk appetite is changing.

[lasmo] 04/9/2019 12:14

Sorry to see you go. My view is more optimistic. CTO is better protected in a down turn due to no debt, opportunities in Europe should counter balance project delays in the UK. Brexit doom and gloom is already baked into the share price. Hence assuming we come out of this mess, upside could be substantial. Finally, cheap pound may increase potential for CTO to be acquired by overseas company.

[rivaldo] 04/9/2019 11:00

I've reluctantly sold, concluding today. The commercial construction data yesterday was absolutely awful:



CTO is a very, very well-run, high quality company. But in the current climate, even if CTO manages to maintain its order book, I can only see investor sentiment towards the sector and the company worsening, despite the (currently) very low P/E. In which case there's limited if any upside, whereas the downside could yet again be back to 80p-85p or so.

It's also nice to have more cash in the bank in reserve given all the market shenanigans at present!

Good luck all. I may well be wrong/back soon!

[cc2014] 14/8/2019 12:57

The challenge with NG Bailey is trying to unravel the profit from "building services" from the profit from "investments and cash". Whilst there are seperate accounts we all know the directors will move the costs around to portray a certain picture. I don't think therefore there is any way to say whether their margin is any better or worse than T. Clarke.

The company at the top of the tree appears to be NG Bailey Group Ltd, whose latest accounts show turnover of £481m, profit of £17.5m, but also net assets of £139m of which cash and investments are £85m. How much of that £85m cash and investments contributes to profit is anyones guess.

The latest set of accounts are not yet available from companies house. They will appear in a day or two.


If you are looking around for companies with the resources to launch a bid for CTO then yes NG Bailey could do so with no leverage. Regent could do so as well again with no leverage. But I'm not sure there's a stong rationale for an NG Bailey/T. Clarke merger. At the moment both companies seem focused on diversifying to improve margins rather than gobbling up their competitors to remove competition and gain economies of scale.

If you are hoping for a takeover I'm more inclined to look overseas. The pound is on the floor right now and it's cheap to buy British assets with crazy low P/E's on a sizeable number of stocks.



I perceive if you have the largest players in the sector both with high order books (NG Bailey up 40% at £1.4b, CTO flat at £370m) margins should not be excessively under pressure despite the economic gloom. In addition I'll be astonished if NG Bailey don't get loads of work on HS2 (it's not T.Clarke's sort of job) which will keep them busy whilst the new Commonwealth Games Stadium required for 2022 surely has to be one T. Clarke is in pole position for after the Olympics went so well. Why take the risk of giving it to any other conractor?

[varies] 14/8/2019 11:50

Norbert Colon
Thanks

[tuscan4] 14/8/2019 10:57

Does anyone have any knowledge of N G Bailey?
It appears to be a great fit for CTO, being mainly outside London and strong in higher voltage infrastructure areas such as nuclear/rail/power etc.
It is privately owned and about twice the size of CTO but has better margins.
Any buyer of CTO would need to be ideally overseas, keen to get a UK foothold, or if home based, not a full on competitor or customer/user in order to preserve their very close relationships with their main customers ie Lendlease.

[varies] 14/8/2019 10:31

Is this quoted on the main list or AIM ?

[edmundshaw] 13/8/2019 08:41

Interesting comparison and analysis CC2014, seems the sector is doing OK for now at least for the quality companies in it.

[cc2014] 13/8/2019 08:17

This was out yesterday



Turnover up 16%
Profit up 41%
Order Book up 40%

NG Bailey are CTO's best comparator as the biggest independent building services company in the UK. One would consider them competitors but their paths do not cross as often as you would think as NG Bailey are not strong in London and instead focus on other areas e.g. new nuclear power station at Hinkley Point.

This is good news for CTO showing the sector is doing well. Also, with the biggest player having plenty of work they will be busy managing that, not bothering their competitors and not depressing margins.

[cc2014] 12/8/2019 16:39

Closing auction trade at 117.

Today's rise supports the view that Miton have finished.

[santangello] 12/8/2019 13:25

Looking healthier and heading towards more realistic levels.

[cc2014] 11/8/2019 09:42

Friday's trading seemed to support post 3328. No large trades and the price slowly ticking up such that buyers are having to pay the full 109 at the close rather than 107.5 earlier in the day.

Did Miton take the day off on Friday? have they finished? or are they going to come back at a higher price?

Hopefully we will find out Monday.

[cc2014] 09/8/2019 11:52

So, bit of fun for Friday. Has the dam burst? Has Miton finished?

I ask because L2 has changed in the last 24 hours and now the spread has opened up to the upside. Also, I note a trade of 113,528 at 105.0 reported late yesterday which isn't a round number like they usually are for that sort of size of trade so that could be the end of them. The trade is marked as a sell and at 105 it could only be a sell unless of course it's an accumulation of buys at 105 on the order book and then reported as an 'O' trade. So, could be anything basically but it's unlikely to be Regent as they usually buy in multiples of 50k.

My sense is that over the last few days Regent and Miton have been playing chicken with each other over the price. Regent got a few too easily at 110 or thereabouts so tried for 107 and were successful and then tried for 105 where it looks to me like they've still been getting stock but at a far slower pace. The 10k iceberg is still sitting at 105 and has got one fill this morning. Looking at L2 I don't think it's going to get any more as there's too much volume sitting at 106 and also at 105 with time preference.

I suspect the MM's have some stock left over from Miton as it's 107.5 to buy now but not that much as it's 106.3 to sell.

Anyway let's see what happens. It makes no difference to me as I'll hold whether it moves today or next month.

[scottishfield] 09/8/2019 10:52

Or you could argue (with some reason), that I don't know what day it is !!. Anyways apols CWA1.

[cwa1] 09/8/2019 10:34

AH, OK, no worries!

[scottishfield] 09/8/2019 10:30

Oops, you are correct, I haven't checked the date. Tks, and apologies.

[cwa1] 09/8/2019 10:27

Hi scottishfield. Any chance of a link to that RNS please? I can only see the previously reported one from 6/8 here. Thanks

[scottishfield] 09/8/2019 09:35

That's the Regent rns then CC2014. Good news.

[cc2014] 08/8/2019 12:10

Off we go again. 10k buy bot iceberg running at 105.

I assume there will be an article in this weeks IC to follow up from IC Alpha on the day of the interims

[cc2014] 07/8/2019 11:17

15k buy bot running at 106 this morning. 2 gone through already and another loaded at 106 on the order book. I expect another Regent RNS if this carries on.

[santangello] 06/8/2019 11:59

Thank for that clarification....bargain buying for a little while to come perhaps....then things should get interesting.