Tclarke Share Discussion Threads

[its the oxman] 05/6/2019 13:31

Buying opportunity, should be much higher come the next newsflow.

[cc2014] 05/6/2019 12:23

Or a deliberate push down of the share price to make it feel like there's a seller when in fact someone wants to buy alot of stock? It's a common tactic. Similar but different to what happened yesterday whilst successfully drove out alot of sell volume and allowed someone to pick up stock cheap.

The buying algo will then gradually increase the price it's prepared to pay during the day as it knows some people will be happy to sell at say 125, because that's an amazing price compared with 117 earlier, which was completely false.

Even if the sellers don't come out at 125 or whatever, the algo will still see 130 as a good price as that is what is was prepared to pay anyway.

Why do I think this? Because someone bought 5013 shares at 118.85 yet only 3403 shares went through at 117ish to provide them. A MM made a loss on that. They've made a loss on the buys at 119 and 120 too. They don't care though because letting someone making a few quid is peanuts compared to the improved price they are going to pay on average for the large volume of shares they are going to buy.

[rivaldo] 05/6/2019 11:27

Looks like a particularly poorly handled sell programme, which in an illiquid stock like CTO only results in exacerbated falls.

[scottishfield] 05/6/2019 11:21

All v weird, I bought around here yesterday, and I've bought again this morning.

[cc2014] 05/6/2019 11:18

How bizarre. GFRD up 3.4%, Kier up 1.1%, BBY up 1.7%. In fact every single construction, house-building and wholesaler stock in my portfolio is blue today most by around 2% and yet CTO has fallen again.

Do we get a replay of yesterday as the buyers move in late afternoon?

[thorpematt] 04/6/2019 19:46

Fair amount of volume today here. I am guessing some profit taking early on followed by a text book lunch-time tree shake, (usually better on Fridays), no doubt some stops hit in the process.

[cc2014] 04/6/2019 16:43

I'd say there will be a few tomorrow who were quick enough to buy at say 120 who will be happy to sell at 130 but once those are done all the weak sellers are out and we can move on up.

[twistednik] 04/6/2019 16:39

Strong into close, expect a good open tomorrow with the weak hands flushed out today.

[wynmck] 04/6/2019 16:05

interims Aug 6

[cc2014] 04/6/2019 16:02

Interim results 6th August

[twistednik] 04/6/2019 15:57

Yes, good opportunity for a top-up at this level imho.

Won't be at 120p for long once shake is over and buyers return.

[from8to800] 04/6/2019 15:32

When are results/trading update due?

[cc2014] 04/6/2019 14:50

So, usually after such a drop the following happens. Let's see.

The initial fall is someone selling for real. Maybe not that many shares but enough to trigger a stop or too. Then another stop triggers and so on. As we can see here the 10% trailing stops triggered and then even more lower down. Most of those sell trades can't have been people executing real time as people don't tend to sit at the screen watching. So, they are stops. If it was someone with some information who was willing to sell at 110 this morning they sure wouldn't be hanging around to sell at 120 right now.

Then we see buyers kick in scooping up all the really cheap shares sub 120p. That's not a very difficult decision as the price was 133p last night. Now we get to the more difficult part. There will be many buyers sitting on the sidelines ready to buy but are scared in case it falls again, so they wait. As time goes by people become more comfortable it's stop running and over and down with and start buying.

It will probably play out in the last hour as if you are going to buy it's this afternoon as tomorrow morning those who can't screen watch will buy first thing.

Of course, in fairness I'm talking my own book but I can't see what's changed from this morning. Most other construction stocks are up today apart from Kier. Kier closed at 164 last night, hit a low of 147 and is 160 right now, so even Kier is recovering fast and looks like it's got a half chance of going up today.

[dtaliadoros] 04/6/2019 13:35

There big volumns in the drops?

[buying] 04/6/2019 13:31

Buys are showing as sells

[smartmoney100] 04/6/2019 13:12

Thanks. may buy a few more

[nattagoza] 04/6/2019 13:08

Tree Shake, stop far enough away, quickly topped up, no news that i can see.

[tim1478] 04/6/2019 13:05

Not sure. Disappointing. I had protective stop profit at 118 so out of this excellent firm. Could be a tree shake -- a big one!!

[cc2014] 04/6/2019 13:04

Assume it's the construction PMI this morning and then stop running as the selling was irrational.

the fall was too fast and then selling hasn't continued on the bounce which supports my view it's just stops firing.

Woodford doesn't own any but it's possible someone who owns a load of stocks similar to Woodford has seen their portfolio drop this morning and had a margin call causing the selling here.

I expect normality to set in over the day and the price to recover. I think it would be unrealistic to get back to 132 today but something above 125 might be reasonable.


Edit: took a closer look at the construction PMI. It isn't great but BBY, BVS , CRH, TW., GFRD, RDW are all up whilst a few others are down. On average they are up. So, I don't think it's that.

[fredfishcake] 04/6/2019 13:04

Best guess is read across from Kier, but that was yesterday. Does Woodford hold loads of these or something?

[smartmoney100] 04/6/2019 12:58

Big drop, any news/rumours anyone?

[cc2014] 31/5/2019 08:45

I guess you are probably right lasmo. In some ways you get the opportunity to get the possible explosive increase in profit and margin through Eton and the data centres for free as the underlying historic business supports the share price.

[lasmo] 29/5/2019 12:02

You could be imagining things, although I suspect the award of the first, of many European data centre contracts, might be just around the corner. These contracts are massive and would have a significant impact on TClarkes results. With their contractor relationships and client track record eg google etc they must be well placed.

[cc2014] 29/5/2019 11:39

I have been musing about this post for some time.

Does anyone find the trade flow and price action a bit strange over the last couple of months? I've been investing and trading for very many years and the stock market has been very kind to me. After so many years I've got of got a sense for how share prices move and for when things look unusual.

What I see here is that after a significant price correction, we continue to see a continuous flow of buys. Now the price correction was overdue (PER, net cash, assets etc. were all screaming this for some time) and as is usual price corrections do not go in straight lines and this one is not complete, but what I call the ebb and flow in the share price seems odd.

I would have expected the pullbacks to be stronger, contain more volume and last longer, but that's not what's happening. It's like someone knows something and is not prepared to be patient as they know they are on a limited timeframe. Or there are multiple buyers all of whom know something and are having to compete for stock.

In some ways I don't have to think about this much deeper as the P/E is still low compared with the sector average and in addition profits are rising at a sustainable impressive rate. Further the new stream of business within Eton provides a much better margin and opportunities for growth and the effects of that have yet to play out to any great extent.

Maybe it's as simple as that and some fund managers see consistent long term growth with a low P/E and no debt. However, I keep looking at the trades and the buying pressure seems stronger than I would expect given the share price was 80p only 8 months ago.


When the share price was 80p I was really worried someone would come along and make a bid at 120p which I felt would have been derisory but difficult for the Board to defend. Now any bid would have to be in the 200p area which I still wouldn't be happy with but at least is alot higher than 120p. I don't know, maybe I'm imagining things which aren't there in the trade flow and it is as simple as the shares remain "cheap" but it seems to be something more than that.

[cc2014] 28/5/2019 08:28

Some of the sector moving strongly this morning. Flood of trades on CTO in the first half hour. I assume it's based on this rather than the EU elections.