Sysgroup Share Discussion Threads

[energyi] 24/9/2002 21:50

Maybe they'll "come out" and post here.
Check the LIFE thread also

[bbfifi] 24/9/2002 21:47

I haven't noticed!

[energyi] 24/9/2002 21:42

why the "wow"? There are plenty on the PBB like that, I think

[energyi] 24/9/2002 21:39

This is how I make my living (for the time being, at least)
Many years experience don't hurt. But I'm still learning.

This thread is developing into a "warts and all".
Some of these trades (like FCX) may look pretty sick before long.

[bbfifi] 24/9/2002 21:37

Energi, what a knowledgeable guy you are!
BTW, thanks for the info on options!

[energyi] 24/9/2002 21:06

I BOT Call options. Slightly different concept.

Fundamental argument: Gold is breaking out (maybe), and copper
is oversold and may bounce. FCX is the cheapest component of the
XAU index, so I saw it as a cheap way in to play a gold breakout.

I actually bought yesterday, before this last drop, on the theory
that we were seeing a double bottom. Wasnt very happy with my trade
after today's downmove.

I do think the fundamental story could be good and they may announce
some good Q3 figures soon. This oversold chart could bounce alot.
But if I was making the decision right now, I would wait for a clearer
sign of a bottom. There's not alot to stop it from falling to $10, if you
are chart scanning. So thank gawd, it's limited risk calls I have

- - - - -
Here's a Canadian stock, Wheaton River (t.WRM) which I'm also playing
for a gold breakout: (better chart, I think)


Wheaton River: Long term chart looks good too:


Have it from lower (about C$1.00), and have lightened up abit at C$1.34 recently.
another chart, same stock:


BTW, here's the closing data for ABX: 09/24/2002
Last [Tick] 18.12[ + ] : Change 0.73 : % Change 4.20%
Open 17.72 : Volume 5,104,300 : Day High 18.19 : Day Low 17.51

[dead cat bounce] 24/9/2002 20:55

Energyi - you went long FCX? Why?

The Balance of Power indicator on my black chart above does very much suggest a waning of momentum in the move. Perhaps I didn't explain it's use very well. The lower indicator hints at possible further rises but given the mixed signals of one indicator saying the move is expiring and the other saying it MAY continue, then I think banking your profits would be a good idea.

dcb

[energyi] 24/9/2002 20:09

DCB,
That's a nice looking chart, which will take me awhile to absorb.
"Money Stream" looks a valuable indicator.

My common sense approach to ABX was that it would rally to $18, and if
it could carry through there (on a closing basis) $22-24 becomes a real possibility. Your chart, including Money-Flow suggests no waning of momentum. And so holding (the remainder of my position) may seems advisable.

I use Bolly Bands to see potential reversal levels.
And they work well enough for me. As an example, in my chart in the
header, ABX has rallied above $18.00, but it may peter out on the top
Bolly Band. Should know by the end of the day. If if shoots through it,
and susstains $18.20, then I would not be surprised to see a rally to $20+

REINVESTING PROCEEDS
I have already re-invested the money from ABX, in two stocks:

(1)
Thera (t.TH): a biotech with strong cash

Long Term: Support expected at $4.00


(2)
Freeport (FCX): a Copper & Gold play, with some potential Indonesion issues
Here, I also bought call options, because of the Indonesian risk

Long Term: Oversold at $12-13, but fall to $10 possible:

[dead cat bounce] 24/9/2002 19:49

energyi - I think your strategy is absolutely correct. The price is entering a consolidation area from Feb to May and taking profits here has to be the right thing to do until the position is clarified.

The chart below is a 2 day per bar chart courtesy of tc2000 (www.tc2000.com) which is the package I use for analysis. The middle window shows one of Worden Brothers proprietary indicators called Balance of Power. It shows buying or selling pressure or the lack thereof. You can see that the rally from 14 to 18 has been on diminishing buying pressure, indicating that it is running out of steam.

The bottom indicator is another one of Wordens called time segmented volume. They recommend a buy when the indicator is above its moving average and both above the centre line. Although the indicator has turned up, its MA is still way below the centre line. Looking at volume, you can see that the rally has not been on convincing volume. As I said, I think your strategy is bang on.





I have great respect for MTG and I would like to know in what way he uses macd, the MAs he mentions and rsi, but for the life of me I cannot see any predictive use in any of the indicators on your chart above, but then I have never been a fan of Bollinger Bands. Maybe I just don't understand them well enough.

dcb

[energyi] 24/9/2002 19:24

Thanks, NC.
I had a nice profit, and Gold metal is near a double top ($328).
So why not bail with a profit?
I do see that ABX has traded at $18.03 since I sold. No matter.

Here's a semi-conductor stock which is on the right side of MA's

Genisys Microchip (GNSS):

[nc] 24/9/2002 19:20

This looks like it's going to be a great thread.

My view (for what it's worth) - there is clear resistance around 18 so good place to sell.

I have a question, which is not directly on thread - why/when do you choose to use options rather than straightforward futures (cfd/s.bet) trade?