Synergia Energy Share Discussion Threads

[robbie12] 20/2/2004 16:03

Yep but kind of strange how I posted my analysis, saying exactly that, the day before the Mail printed the story. Pure coincidence I assure you! Proves my research isn't too far off. Luck all.

[maut too] 20/2/2004 15:04

obviously not ... there is little point in just posting for no purpose :-))

we are moving up on rumours

[robbie12] 20/2/2004 15:02

Blimey it's quiet on here - broken decisively above the 70p level - reports of takeovers - some useful analysis by yours truly - and everyone crawls under a rock and hides. Anyone got anything interesting or helpful to say????

[maut too] 20/2/2004 10:09

+0.5, (75.5) at 10:10am
20.02.04 :an article in the Independent reports: Computacenter fell 12.5p to 437.75p amid speculation that it is considering a move on its rival Synstar, up 3.5p to 75p. Arbuthnot Securities noted that operationally there is much in the way of synergy between the two companies. With net funds of £46m, Computacenter certainly has the firepower to complete such a deal, should it wish, says Arbuthnot.

[robbie12] 19/2/2004 16:56

Said 100p was a likely target. Mail says 95p - I'll not quibble over the 5p. Luck all.

[firmy] 19/2/2004 14:38

50% rise on the way.

[maut too] 19/2/2004 10:33

interesting ...l2 still looks good - 2.1 with everyone blue

[gardener1] 19/2/2004 10:27

Mentioned in the Mail market report today " Computer services group Synstar eased .5p to 71.5p but rumours doing the rounds after hours suggested that a cash bid of 95p a share from Computacenter could be on the way".

[maut too] 19/2/2004 10:10

low vols as yet - l2 looks good - 6/8 are blue - 7 on the bid and three on the offer

[tugwil] 19/2/2004 10:08

about to blow

[cool hand kev] 19/2/2004 09:10

starting to move chaps

[robbie12] 19/2/2004 00:42

Yes I am holding 50,000 shares. Disappointing to see some small retail selling today, but the medium term outlook is positive. Compare SYN to the rest of it's sector and it looks good value and importantly is well asset-backed. My main rationale for buying is that it must be a fairly interesting takeover target. Time will tell. Luck all.

[firmy] 18/2/2004 17:24

going to rise big time.

[tugwil] 18/2/2004 13:34

scottish wid buy 10.000.000. must know the good news.

[maut too] 17/2/2004 15:04

CAS Synstar : Holding in company
17-Feb-2004 14:57

The Company today received
notification from Scottish Widows
Investment Partnership Limited that
they are interested in 10,908,965
ordinary shares.
Of this interest, 8,760,745 Shares,
representing approximately 5.391% of
the Company's issued share capital,
comprise a material and notifiable
interest.

ICV Edited News from Dow Jones
1457 GMT Feb 17 2004

[cool hand kev] 16/2/2004 21:12

mostly buys today so what does it take to move this forward ?
See did you join us then Robbie ?

[maut too] 16/2/2004 13:08

thats a very very marginal decrease

[maut too] 16/2/2004 13:06

CAS Synstar : Holding in company
16-Feb-2004 13:05
Scottish Widows Investment Partnership
are interested in 7,908,965.
Of this interest, 6,856,745 (4.22%)
shares comprise a material and
notifiable interest.

ICV Edited News from Dow Jones
1305 GMT Feb 16 2004

[robbie12] 16/2/2004 09:11

Most definitely not RB!!

[cool hand kev] 13/2/2004 14:16

Your not the robbie burns are you ? Im in at 73p today

[robbie12] 13/2/2004 13:57

PBT - £8.5 million - ex-France £11.8 million - apply a tax-rate of 33% as per final results = £8.04 million post tax.

8.04 / 162,500,000 (shares in issue) = eps 4.95.

Add in benefit of future contracts - totals announced:

Fujitsui: £30 million pa.
MOD: £3.33 million pa.

So total of £33.3 million pa.

Pre-tax margins last year: PBT 11.8 - turnover 206.6 = 5.7%
5.7% taxed = 3.82%.

Apply same margins to new wins = 33.3 x 3.82% = £1.27 million.

8.04 million plus 1.27 million = 9.31 million.

9.31/162,500,000 = eps 5.73p.

PE say 15 = 86p shareprice - plus cash of 15p = target shareprice of 100p give or take.

There is one caveat - margin pressure on the maintenance side - however these long term contracts including the Galileo one should be at better margins as higher value business and long term. So I reckon that there should be a balancing effect.

All in all in a market where value is hard to come by this looks quite interesting. Excellent cashflow, good products and newsflow.

Spread a little wide but I assume market makers are keeping it so until they have got rid off the final shares from a biggish seller.

I wonder whether a company valued at £117 million, making £12 million a year and with £20 million in cash might be a takeover target.

Think I might have convinced myself to buy this. Anyone like to contribute before then. Off until Sunday evening, looking to buy Monday am. Have a good weekend all and don't forget to spoil your missus.....?

[robbie12] 13/2/2004 13:22

From what I can see, now that the french ops have been sold, operating profits will be £3.3 million higher - so roughly an eps of 5p. Consequently forecasts for both 2004 and 2005 should be increased accordingly. I will keep researching on Sunday evening - off for the weekend now, bit if you add in the cash (15p per share) - I think 100p plus does not look unreasonable.

Re The - used to own alot - no even looked at it this year. I sold out as it was clear that they had gone ex-growth and most of all profits for the next couple of years would go to pay off prefs and not benefit ordinary shareholders. Remind me to look again in a year!

[boadicea] 13/2/2004 12:28

Robbie12 - Glad to have you with us. This board has been quiet, almost deserted, except for myself and maut. I don't know about better knowledge, but perhaps I have a longer view.
I bought into this share some time ago and have added a few times since as I reckon it undervalued. It doubled operating profits in the difficult year 2002, has a generally positive cash flow and shows the ability to get to grips with problems in good time e.g. settling the French issue.
It wrote off the share pemium account in the 2002 accounts enabling it to consider the introduction of a dividend which it has done this year with a maiden payment of 0.5p due in April subject to AGM approval.
I have also, by chance, met one of its clients who reported very favourably on its data recovery and emegency back-up facility at Newbury.
Its spread is usually too wide for short term trading imo and I considered it a put-away-for-two-years and forget situation. I remain happy with this view - not taken too literally, of course, while watching for a continued steady flow of contract news.
A p/e basis of at least 15 for a growth/recovery stock was the one I used, so my conclusions were very close to yours.
This is my personal rationale and not a recommendation of any sort.

PS.(off thread) - Do you have a recent view on THE, some of which I still hold?

[maut too] 13/2/2004 10:56

cd refs shows 2004 eps average estimates as 3.44 for 2004 and 4.96p for 2005 but the latest estimates (forming the average) are higher as they take into account recent gains

[robbie12] 13/2/2004 10:39

Have not bought yet - but been trying to work through some numbers: eps 3.6p - but if you strip out French ops as now sold then full year eps more like 5p - add in the revs from new Fujitsui contract (£200 million) and you could conceivably push the eps upto around 6p - should be on a PE of at least 15 - so shareprice of 90p seems fair.

This is my first look as was watching the volumes and thought I would take a peek.

Anyone with better knowledge like to comment.