Summit Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[wildbunch] 18/10/2019 13:11

Looking for what?

[kirk 6] 17/10/2019 21:18

Nicely up in US this is where we should be looking

[multibagger] 17/10/2019 07:42

Waterloo, freedosh etc may remember my posts on this BB for that period - and those with time on their hands can go back and take a look !!

[multibagger] 17/10/2019 07:41

Posted on SAR board and equally applicable here - just replace SAR and SUMM and the story is very similar. Hopes of a multibagger are equally remote.


multibagger29 Sep '19 - 10:05 - 3157 of 3160 Edit

One of the few times (from memory) that share holders made good money with SAR was way back in Feb 2011. I significantly profited, as I think did MrsApeLaptop (from BB postings).

SAR has never fulfilled its promise/hype imho since despite various announcements over the years about promising molecules/ scientific developments etc.

Though I have made good money from SUMM, TRX, SCLP, OXB, AmpliPhi Biosciences over the years, I have stopped investing in individual stocks in biotech/pharma and have restricted myself to investing through Funds. I have also lost money in PRM, Angel ? ,VENN, HZD.

On reflection, I have put down my success in some AIM biotechs/pharma to more luck and timing, than real investment nous.

Most small AIM biotech/pharma companies tend to be bottomless, cash devouring black holes with holders being diluted to kingdom come. Risk v Reward is very much skewed towards the house (no surprises there).

Good luck all :)

[waterloo01] 17/10/2019 07:15

The share price could certainly fly, depending on how much they can raise, at what price and from whom and particularly if there is a change in sentiment towards antibiotics,given that if they get 1st/2nd line approval it could be a $bn a year market, it would have significant value.

Otherwise it's going to be a long wait for any muti returns IMO

[kirk 6] 16/10/2019 20:57

For people who are in at 24p hopefully !!

[wildbunch] 16/10/2019 20:38

This will be multi bagger for who? Waterloo-you know these things-what do you think?

[kirk 6] 16/10/2019 14:13

The last placing was at 25p a 5 pence premium to the price at the time admittedly it was low. Nasdaq current equivalent price is around 25-26p and funding could well come from a mix of a placing above the current price (if history repeated itself) and government grants etc We are nearly there, much has been proven, once funding is sorted this will be a multibagger

[kirk 6] 16/10/2019 13:53

Don't think you necessary need to read that into it !!

[leedslad001] 16/10/2019 13:45

It will probably be a placing at a discount to the share price diluting our holdings so will wait before I add as share price normally drops to placing price

[kirk 6] 16/10/2019 11:28

Agree with you there we don't want a cheap buy out at say 40-50p! Seen that many times before with a good product which is Starting to gain publicity and doing well

[wildbunch] 16/10/2019 10:53

What am I missing here? Funding is sorted it-the large minority shareholder will not let this fold so will stump up the cash if necessary-but on what terms. Buy out at then existing share price plus x% premium. A couple of years down the line it may be worth say £1bn and we won't have seen much of that. Remember, he knew when he took his stake that Summit were going to run out of money way before Phase 3 tests were over-so this 'crisis' was predictable. I am sure the CEO et al will be fine-look at how they dumped their previous shoe options and were immediately awarded with more at a much lower exercise price to 'motivate' them.

This may seem cynical-but the facts fit. Hope we get alternative source of funding which keeps us in the game.

GLA

[leedslad001] 16/10/2019 09:54

Until funding is sorted this will go nowhere I have a few but will not add until it's sorted

[kirk 6] 16/10/2019 07:37

Maybe Neil Woodford will provide the finance here ?

[kirk 6] 16/10/2019 07:37

Nice read ! One thing is for sure the market is growing and a necessity !!

[gooosed] 14/10/2019 22:05

best1467 - re your 25202....interesting - do you have a link ?

[someuwin] 14/10/2019 10:33

From N+1 Singer note out today...

"Impact on earnings & valuation

Based on revised guidance for capital requirements provided in the analyst call, we have increased the expected equity capital raise in FY2021 from £35m to £40m (gross) and forecast R&D expenditure by the same amount to £39m in total. We have added a further £50m equity capital raise to FY2022 forecasts to support the final development, launch and commercialisation of ridinilazole."

[wildbunch] 14/10/2019 08:12

Let me be clear-I consider that there is a reasonable potential for the major product to be a blockbuster. The issue is not their pipeline it is their CASH position. As Chris points out, they run out very soon-and even if they scale back they run out in a year. The danger is we run out of runway and are forced to accept a low price either from our existing large minority shareholder or a pharma. Why should they pay in pounds per share when the share price is in low pence territory? My hope is that we get a big chunk of non dilutive government funding. Any short term buy out without this will be bad news .

Forget stuff like is up in the US overnight and all the rest of that sort of noise-our minority share holder is not going to let this run out of cash-what will he want in return is the issue-it may not be great for long term shareholders.

That's all.

[best1467] 14/10/2019 07:42

HBM biotech have recently taken a stake I think it was around June so could easily see them taking up a significant portion of any offering On the Us RNS more detail on the follow on Ph2 results extremely positive I don’t see any issue raising funds on these results imo.

[waterloo01] 12/10/2019 17:29

Good digging Chris. Certainly hope it's not a case of going slow on any front, but maybe that's what's needed?

[chrisatrdg] 12/10/2019 16:29

WHERE WE ARE CASH FLOW WISE.

I think the next two paragraphs included in the recent accounts sums up the position well and they have business as usual but funding before end of January 2020 or concentrate on C-Diff & cut back else where takes them to 31st October 2020 hence they have taken on more staff.

'The Group is evaluating various options to finance its cash needs through a combination of some, or all, of the following: equity offerings, collaborations, strategic alliances, grants and clinical trial support from government entities, philanthropic, non-government and not-for-profit organisations and patient advocacy groups, debt financings, and marketing, distribution or licensing arrangements. Whilst the Group believes that funds would be available in this manner before the end of January 2020, there can be no assurance that the Group will be able to generate funds, on terms acceptable to the Group, on a timely basis or at all, which would impact the Group’s ability to continue as a going concern.

Management has identified specific mitigating actions which it would be required to take in the near future should the Group be unable to raise additional funding, including, amongst others, a slow-down of its ongoing Phase 3 clinical trials and suspending its Discuva Platform activities and associated research programmes. Should the Group be required to take these steps, it is currently expected that its current and anticipated cash and cash equivalents would be sufficient through to at least 31 October 2020. The failure of the Group to obtain sufficient funds on acceptable terms when needed would therefore have a material adverse effect on the Group’s business, results of operations and financial condition.'

[chrisatrdg] 12/10/2019 14:46

NASDAQ listing of SEC Filings usually has more information than we currently have in this weeks RNS - HAPPY HUNTING.



Edit: Not sure there is much more.

[kirk 6] 11/10/2019 21:45

Listened to the Q and A. A lot I don’t understand other than the finance bit. I did pick up that they said funding should be easy and plenty of option will be open to then.

Massive opportunity for the product in the USA so funding likely to come from N
Or even China.

Very positive! (At least that’s my take Allthough I would be bias with 1.4m ish shares)

[waterloo01] 11/10/2019 17:27

Unless the terms are very favourable. Dungan is a $$bn aire so unlikely to end up aka MTFB/POLX?)

Not favoured in biotech I agree, but in other sectors they would leverage up at low rates. They have the cash to meet ongoing interest payments. It is after all a bet on one or other of the antibiotics getting approved AND used.

Probably a daft idea.