Stanley Gibbons Share Discussion Threads

[jtcod] 29/7/2007 12:42

Wilmdav
Sorry for the delay in response. I didn't realise you had replied.

Will be happy to e-mail you when I get back into work on Monday. Don't have it on this computer.

[wilmdav] 27/7/2007 10:51

JT

Many thanks for the quality response.

I don't yet know how to insert charts etc on advfn but could insert your excel chart (and possibly the 'graphic' chart, if that is different) in the SGI section of my website, if you were to send me the file(s). That would make it/them available to anyone.



There is a fairly typical thread running on the TMF "Growth at Reasonable Price" board. At some point, probably after the interims, I will post a link to your comments here. But you might feel inclined to contribute over there.

[mr.oz] 27/7/2007 07:10

"There are two revaluations going in the market today," we told our audience yesterday. "The first is the repricing of risk. Financial assets won't do well in this environment as interest rates rise and investors back away from toxic brews of asset-backed securities. The other great revaluation is the pricing of resource stocks as if they were not cyclical stocks. Institutions are driving this too, not wanting to miss out on more of the heady performance of the oil, minerals, and energy stocks."

"Stamps don't correlate to anything," said philatelist Geoff Anandappa of Stanley Gibbons in London. Coins, stamps, baseball cards...these are collectables and tangibles which have liquid markets for exchange...and which seem to be perennially popular across age groups. Who isn't intrigued by the Penny Black stamp....or the Five Pound Orange with a pristine gum?

We confess we'd never seriously thought of stamps as an asset class, but that's the kind of outside the square thinking you get over four days at a gig like this. It takes all kinds. And the point is to find an alternative to consider, not simply the same old strategies denominated in the same old currencies.

[jtcod] 26/7/2007 12:28

Wilmdav
Sorry for delay in replying to you post 899. I've been on holiday.

The SG 100 has only been going a short time, so it is hardly SGI's fault that the poor LSE index performance has flattered the SG 100 during that time. The SG 30 has been going for longer and the company has records going back to the early 1950's for the top 30 rarest. That's where I found out that rare stamps had not had one down year in that time.

TMF have some very seasoned investors but if they are saying that SGI's market is flattered by high liquidity and it will come back down, I think they have missed the point.

Every investment market is only as good as it's Size, Liquidity, visibility of prices and the integrity of those running the show.

If we look at the LSE: It grew over time as investor's gained easy access to it and it's reputation for honesty was established.

The stamp market is in the same business but well behind in it's development. It is an ideal alternative to stocks, not least because of the ease by which large net worth assets can be stored. Unfortunately, over the years the true investment status of the stamp sector has been splintered due to limited international access to respected players like SGI. Essentially it has been and still is a local market. However, the internet has changed that landscape forever, leaving the strongest brand in the field to leverage it's trusted name in every corner of the globe.

I cannot think of any other leading brand in any other sector (that relies significantly upon 'trust') that still has a 99.5% market to shoot at.

Even if we assume the TMF poster's are correct and 30% of potential investment funds dry up following a severe recession. During that same time, SGI could have increased it's market share to say 2% of the world market. i.e. 400%. What is more, it would still fully realize that 30% benefit again when the market eventually came back.

I'm in for the long haul and I'm also willing to accept that this could be my first 'lifetime' investment. As I have said before, SGI is sitting atop the biggest hill from which to roll it's snowball down, that I know of.

I can at least show how strong the rarest part of the market has been since 1954 if anyone can show me how to paste an excel chart and a graphic chart in an ADVFN post.

[capimus] 24/7/2007 17:41

To Wilmdav

Bless you how much certainty do you need? - your insomnia would be significantly improved by exiting AIM stocks!

No offence meant..



To Saucepan
your stoploss level could lose you money twice over - if you know what I mean...

[saucepan] 23/7/2007 08:37

Hi to thread regulars. I have gone long Stanley Gibbons (SGI), first thing this morning, at 239p, as a "Low PEG/imminent results play". I am hoping this will be a long term hold rather than just a short term momentum play.

The following is my reasoning, in case it is of any interest.

Interim Results are due on 3rd August. A run-up can be expected.

I particularly liked the following technicals:

• On a one-year chart the share price is just bouncing off the bottom of its one-year price trend channel.

• The share price has also just crossed a rising 50-day moving average.

• The 13,26, 9 MACD is turning up and has just crossed its signal line.

• RSI has started to rise again, from a nice level.

• Parabolic SAR has triggered a "buy" signal.

• On-balance volume is rising.

• It also looks like a double bottom formed 2/3 July and 11/12 July.

• There also seems strong support around the 225p level. 225p was previously critical resistance back in April.

I shall be placing a strict stop just below 225p.

This is a static chart (i.e. the price will not update) , showing the indicators referred to above:



There is a dynamic chart in the thread header, of course.

Stanley Gibbons (SGI):

Fundamentals:

Profit (£m)
2003 1.23
2004 3.69
2005 2.82
2006 3.75
2007 (F) 4.60
2008 (F) 5.75

Turnover (£m)

2003 8.62
2004 10.05
2005 13.68
2006 16.68
2007 (F) 20.00
2008 (F) 23.50

EPS (p)

2003 3.49
2004 4.86
2005 9.33
2006 11.06
2007 (F) 13.8
2008 (F) 18.8

Other

Projected P/E: 17.7
Rolling PEG-1: 0.60 (suggesting good value!)
Projected Yield 1.90%
Beta: 0.11
Cap (£m): £59.6
Broker Consensus: Buy

[markralph] 22/7/2007 23:55

mentioned in finacial mail sunday today.

[pylewell] 19/7/2007 12:45

JTCod I keep the stamps in my bank now. They are mostly mint early Victorian and I worry a little about the gum getting damaged if there was humidity there. They've been fine for 2 years now.
Initilly the stamps were at SGI but I think they charge for keeping them after a period.

[jtcod] 12/7/2007 14:04

pylewell
Do SGI hold the stamps in vault for you?

[pylewell] 12/7/2007 13:33

Many thanks JTCod. I am heavily invested in SGI and a 6 figure sum in rare stamps. So far SGI is doing best for me.

[jtcod] 12/7/2007 12:52

pylewell
Initially no. The MM's are indiscriminate in a shake out but quality always will out imo.

I would be a big buyer of the stock if there was anything like a fall out in the market bringing the price below a PE of 10. It may never happen but I can dream. I love this brand and as far as I am concerned, the company have only just begun to roll their snowball down a 20 year hill.

[pylewell] 12/7/2007 11:39

JT Cod .... Should we have a bad downturn on the market do you see SGI holding its price, or even increasing as people exit loss making shares and invest their money in SGI? SGI could of course be seen as another retailer which would not be good. One wonders what proportion of profits is due to people investing in rare stamps.

[pylewell] 12/7/2007 11:33

A small write up in Shares Mag today.
Buy @233.5 Up 53% from tip. New stop loss 187p
My most succesful nap remains a buy because of the explosive growth in stamp trading plus autographs, rare records and memorabilia. SG's share of the international stamp market continues to grow but is still only 0.5%, presenting still-enormous opportunities for this well-managed outfit.

Profits last year jumped from £2.9m to 3.8m and are forecast by housebroker Seymour Pierce to hit £4.6m for 2007 and £5.8m next year. This would cut the forward PE to just 12.3, which means the shares have plenty of room for further appreciation helped by the growing cash pile and rising dividend.

[capimus] 10/7/2007 19:25

Once again SGI is giving us a top-up opportunity though may dip another 10p before it marches on.

[don carter] 10/7/2007 09:38

Back in today for the run up to what should be decent results. Bought two lots at 229p which are not showing as buys. Just thought people would like to know there is buying going on inside the spread...My target for these results is 252p, although more may well be on.

[jtcod] 09/7/2007 10:24

Certainly the last 53year record for investing in the top 30 rarest stamps is impressive. Not one down year even through the 1973-75 banking crises and stock bear market. (The worst since 1929-32). Nothing can touch that record.

[penpont] 09/7/2007 10:11

Yes, that would be a nice thought JT. This is the first time I've seen S.G. advertise like this so they are obviously pushing their services more. The advert also mentions a free seminar on investing in stamps and autographs in London on 26th July.

[jtcod] 09/7/2007 09:05

penpoint
I have this theory that the internet will allow rare stamps and memorabilia to become mainstream investments over the next 10-20yrs and SGI will provide the credibility and safety of authenticity. Much in the way that LSE did for shares and Lloyds did for world insurance investment. Obviously on a smaller scale though.

[penpont] 09/7/2007 07:56

Noticed there was a full page ad from Stanley Gibbons in the Investors Chronicle this week promoting stamps as an alternative investment.....

[tom.muir] 21/6/2007 09:37

win - that's a pretty high standard that you are applying. But have a look at ANGL. This one meets it with a bit to spare. Tom

[win2000] 20/6/2007 22:10

Luckythedog,

Many thanks,

I am trying to apply the rule that only picking up the shares with eps year on year growth, say at least 25% for 5 years. There isn't that many left but SGI is one of them.

I am going to look into the comanies you mentioned.

[luckythedog] 17/6/2007 22:18

Hi win2000,

Stanley Gibbons is a great company and I've got nearly 20% of my portfolio invested in it, but it's a little bit pricey now. I target small growth companies in niche markets with no or low debt and Excellent Directors.

I've currently got 30% of my portfolio in Ambrian Capital. It's already gone up 36% since xmas but is still on a forward P/E of 7.3 (yes just 7.3!). Until 2004 it was a shell of various commodity holdings however in the last two years it's moved into Investment Banking within the mining/commodities sector and it's profits are growing rapidly. It's PEG is currently 0.26 it's got no debt, tons of cash and it's prospective dividend will be around 3%. If you want more info check out it's discussion thread, it's ticker is AMBR.

I'm also invested in TRI, VLK, VP. and GLI but Ambrian Capital has definately got the most potential.

[win2000] 16/6/2007 17:05

Are there any other similar growth companies? I would like to do research into them. Thanks