Spectra Systems Share Discussion Threads

[sonofbanjosinger] 26/3/2018 21:10

Disappointed with the drop, but looking forward to a nice dividend and the year ahead.

[tilly99] 26/3/2018 18:26

Fall not rise!!

[harrogate] 26/3/2018 16:57

It is hard to knock them after the share price increase in the last 12 months but I think they raised expectations here too high in a couple of areas. Firstly they have not followed through on the detailed and I thought explicit dividend policy they announced last year. If they had they would have doubled the dividend this year by most calculations. The 25% would have been well received without that but was a disappointment. Secondly the China tobacco was pretty bullishly flagged last year and for me the recent announcement pulled back from that and almost hid the success of the large scale trial. Both these things might come good via a share buyback or a review of the dividend again and a deal on China and if so this is a buying opportunity. That explains the pull back along with the general market demise

[freddie ferret] 26/3/2018 16:50

The revenue did not rise enough imho. That's what has knocked it, and a big bad bear.

[tilly99] 26/3/2018 15:40

Decent sellers stillAnother 2 weeks of it?85p looks like the level to buy here

[tilly99] 25/3/2018 13:56

Sorry 105 -110 is fair value or 92p??I would say we are cheap at 92p but in this market with no catalyst we could get cheaper At 85p I would say we are an outstanding buy with 5--10p downside and 100p of upside So yes I'm a buyer on weakness

[hatfullofsky] 25/3/2018 12:15

Tilly99 - We're now around fair value (well 105-110), I called this a few weeks ago, I doubt we will re-rate until the next set of interims or news of a new transformational deal. This is not rapid take up tech stock, it will need seismic shifts to move it. That coupled with the inability to trade it and its illiquidity will always hold it back.

[twistednik] 25/3/2018 10:37

Good debate folks! Yes, when to sell is as important as when to buy. I used to buy and hold (and forget!) and ended up riding some losers all the way to the bottom!This last year, I've tried to let winners run but also sold into strength so taken good profit on VRS, BOO, ZOO, FUTR, FST.A bit frustrating on Zoo for example as missed the recent base breakout and the 'greedy' bit of your brain always asks 'what if?'It also means that I've cut losers quickly which has led to a good portfolio gain overall.I'm now a bit fearful of giving it all back to the market which is so choppy that it takes some nerve to hold positions (profits in XLM / TAP slowly been eaten away).I think I'll reduce exposure and turn portfolio into 50% cash which puts you in a position to pick up bargains later without being too regretful if there's a bounce.Anyway, I like SPSY but the way it's fallen post result and the recent market sentiment to growth stocks means I may just pick up a small amount.

[bones] 24/3/2018 22:50

I'm with you there microscope. I have trebled my portfolio holdings in 18 months with a mixture of good/lucky stock picking but also good selling after stocks have spiked 100-200 or more %. I have learned from past experience to take super-profits regardless of whether they might get double again.Yet when the fund was half what it was I wrestled with the urge to sell all on a 20% fall back for fear of greed.It reminds me of a radio show game Chris Tarrant used to run where, against the sound of a ticking clock, a weird voice would announce ever increasing cash prizes at random intervals and the contestant would have to shout STOP! to take the last one said. The risk of leaving it until a higher one was that a bell could sound at any time ending the game at which point the contestant got nothing if they had not said STOP!Welcome to the markets.

[microscope] 24/3/2018 22:01

Great posts Bones and Fozzie.

I'd change one word from your last sentence, bones. Markets climb (or maybe create) walls of worry.

But as with the housing 'crash' there are times when the wall becomes a reality. That's what i sense is most probably happening here.

|Fozzie I loved your post, because I can relate to it. I've clung on too often. (Not every time tho'; Early in the tech market, I held 250,000 shares in a car repair company (I knew how to live :)))) ) called Just Car Clinics, bought at pennies each. They said that in one of 17 branches they had found one guy effectively 'fiddling the till'. I took my 3-bagger profit at about 12p, and so did others as they fell. 2 years or so later, they were at a peak of 117p.....Do the maths!!)

Then again, and more of what you mean I believe, I invested my original profit into a property company and was eventually offered over 3 quid each for my 25,000 shares. In a moment of madness I said no. I did get out for a small profit later, but eventually they went bust....

The market is - sometimes - a mad place, and personally now if I was sitting on your near 6-figure sum, I know what I'd do this time. Cash (at least in part from that position imho) is ultimately the boss

But that's just me. I know from your post you are smart enough to make your own decisions and live by/with them. Nobody gets it right all the time and we can grow fatally attached to our favs, utterly certain we are right. That's usually when we get the worst kicking.

I think valuations of top companies are unsustainable and that's why I am trying to be 'prudent'.

I don't have a crystal ball, but if I did I suspect it would at the moment be giving off a rather pungent aroma!

[bones] 24/3/2018 21:06

I see this simply. By Jan 18 the US market was a runaway animal (bull) and the 5th Feb volatility shock was a knife in its guts. A real shock which bowled it over. Survival instinct meant the animal got up again and strode on but it cannot ignore the wound.My own view is that the Dow should come back pretty sharply to the 18k-20k region. Even then this only brings the long bull market back on trend having overstretched itself post-Trump election.It is important that markets get shocked and knocked back on their runs.However I am not convinced the bull is finished. This is because the 2008 bear was an outlier in its severity. Not since 1974 has there been one like it or some would say 1929.I think there is a huge population that is still paralysed from what they lost in 2008-09 never to return.As for the FTSE, this has barely been in a bull run, certainly not compared to the USA which is probably the only overvalued market although in PER terms not overly so historically.I am invested heavily but in 5 special stocks currently. I've sold out recently in stocks that had spiked and released RNS's which suggested the speculative elements were done.I am not yet in the pessimistic Tilly camp but agree the markets are exhibiting some toppy signs. That said, bulls climb walls of worry!

[sonofbanjosinger] 24/3/2018 17:47

Fozzie well done on ZOO l have been watching that share for years. To me, l would only sell my shares when the story changes for the worse ...Spectra has it all ..no debt, increasing dividend, high margins and a nutty professor with blue sky thinking thrown in.

[fozzie] 24/3/2018 17:03

I am a very poor seller of stocks. I have taken some heavy losses on shares where at some point in the cycle i could have sold and made a handsome profit. Over the last 20 years of investing i seem to have repeated this mistake rather too frequently. I know i should have top sliced here on the last two big spikes but haven't, i guess i am just an optimist and a buy and hold forever sort of guy. My biggest holdings are SPSY, TON, ZOO, XPP and XLM and my profits are almost 6 figures. I would hate to see these profits butchered by a bear market where everything is just marked blindly down no matter the quality. Much thinking to be done on my part over the next few months.

[microscope] 24/3/2018 16:24

At risk of mutual appreciation society, also agree with pretty much everything you say too Tilly. It's possible we retest tops and sonofa that's a good point about auto enrolment money, post tax year end we could rebound to the old highs as Tilly also mentions as possible.

At some point in the summer though, i think we head down decisively (if we ever get a summer lol). This last three months has created a platofrm for the dip which will prove hard to resist later this year imho.

Ultimately I'm not as completely bearish as you Tilly, I don't see sub-2000 on FTSE, but I fully accept I could be wrong because once these thing take a hold, there's no telling where/when it ends.

EDIT: Just seen subsequent posts, there's lots of interesting points to absorb from all of you - it's clear there's a lot of pent up feeling right now about these things. I haven't bought yet Tilly exactly because of what we've been discussing(I know I'm a very frustratingly stubborn individual - i can sit watching a stock for years before taking the plunge!). It's at a price where I will buy at some stage if it stays around here. Great value!

And I feel better for having discussed this! Market psychology is an amazing beast! I don't expect everyone to agree with all or even some of my points. It's where I think we're at, but I understand and respect the logic of other people's quite different takes.

[freddie ferret] 24/3/2018 16:21

Tilly.
You have broadened out from the UK market into overseas markets in your discussion. I would have to agree that some far eastern markets have been full blown bull markets over the last few years. However those markets have been driven by economic growth rates far far in excess of the UK. India and China 6-10% per annumn compound.
The UK has gone nowhere in the last 18 years and this is reflected in the stock market and economic growth.
The UK has relied on house price growth, due to restricted supply, to fuel consumer expenditure. Consumer consumption has been largely in far eastern manufactured goods which in real terms have become vastly cheaper to produce due to technological advancement and change.
The 100 index has oscillated between 4000 and 7700 over the last 18 years. In addition bad companies have dropped out of the index and thus are no longer counted. Companies that were in the index that have gone bust are no longer in the index.
A true bull market is 20% increase a year compounded over a decade.
We may over the next two years see the 100 at 4000 again so what?

[sonofbanjosinger] 24/3/2018 16:21

When you are invested in Aim a 50% loss comes as part of the course. I started investing in Bushvield minerals at nearly 4p in 2013 over the next 3 years it dropped to 1.2p so nearly a 70% now its 13p.Yes l agree markets will drop at some stage...just means you need to invest in the right companies.

[tilly99] 24/3/2018 16:07

MicroscopeHave you bought in on the recent fall here? This is still my favourite stock and believe we are going to double in share price here ..barring a stock market crash!!

[tilly99] 24/3/2018 16:02

Microscope I agree with every word you say I started at Merrill (was smith new court then) a year before the 1987 crash and it was a horror show..it didn't matter how cheap or good the company was it lost a huge percentage of its market cap There are far too many investors that think this is a "buy the dip" ,well at some point that just isn't going to be the caseI'm not saying we won't retest the highs or even rise a few percent above it(I don't think we will for 10 years) but what I can categorically say is that we will fall below 2000 and probably 1500 and maybe even 1000 on the share price within the next year or twoSo stay liquid and buy when there is fear around ..at the moment there is huge complacencyThe vix now seems to be in an uptrend and that DOES NOT bode well for the future I'm not trying to scare anyone as I still have some large holdings ..but I do hope this message is heeded and you topslice holdings where you canGood luck all and thanks microscope for your message ..I couldn't have put it better

[sonofbanjosinger] 24/3/2018 15:56

I sleep well Tilly, I only hold 3 companies BMN, SPSY and TON and last week made 6 figure losses on Spectra from it high. My feeling on the situation is that their is a huge wall of money that needs to be invested. Just look at whats going on.....next month the money going into auto enrolment pensions increases from 2% to 5%, where is all this money going to find a home? The stock market still offers the best place for any kind of return and in the future, obviously with the usual ups and down will become a lot more expensive as people chase any kind of return.

[microscope] 24/3/2018 15:51

Not posted here for a while, the speed of the move up caught me out and I missed my buy target. Having seen the results and prospects, I remain impressed by the company.

I didn't expect to see the subsequent drop back. Still think they are a bargain.

All that said I agree with Tilly, this market is in trouble. In one sense it doesn't matter why a market is moving one way or the other, making sense of it is actually secondary to witnessing what is actually happening. Market psychology is more important than the reasons behind it imho

I suspect from the comments Tilly like me has lived through previous market peaks and subsequent falls.

What I am seeing is I believe a classic market topping formation.

Previous peaks have coincided with sharply increased volume days to both up and downside. Usually it is the Dow that the signals emerge first on, and that is happening here. The Dow touched 26,600+ as a closing high and then we had that week of massive volumes with people cashing in, and others buying every dip ravenously. No doubt margin calls then add to the volume effect,

Analyst after analyst appears on telly telling us not to worry, it's normal, not a market top, and all will be fine again shortly. They're telling their clients to sit tight...

However this market (Dow) has risen from 18,000 in late 2016 to almost 27,000 a few weeks ago. The speed of a rise like that means that there aren't many support levels inbetween (a bit at 20,000) on the way back.

Yesterday marked an 'official correction' of 10% from the top. Could mean increased volatility again next week (both ways). Previous market tops eg in 1987 and after the tech boom went on for 6-9 months - a lot longer than people expect - as bulls persist in buying the dips, but eventually the reality gets through to everyone, and a bear market can last for years (just as a bull market can).

Just my observations based on previous experiences and could be different this time, but my feeling is it will repeat. I'm only in six stocks as of now (and unlikely to increase much for a while).

I look for sectors and special or potentially disruptive businesses in a downturn. People need to eat for example too; the bleeding obvious but a safe haven. Education is of course essential and there are exciting technological developments in that area, healthcare and specialist housing for the elderly are examples of where I'm invested.

My guess is no more worthy than anyone else's, but fwiw I think in coming months Dow 20,000 and then 18,000 will be seen and we will all feel the impact.

Hope I'm wrong! And all imho of course!

[tilly99] 24/3/2018 10:36

Pleased to hear it Freddie but am shocked you don't think we have been in a raging bull market in many regions of the world marketsFtse at 7800 share price at 2880 etc etcWe will look back at these moments in time and say to ourselves"what the hell were we thinking"That is my major worry in spsy and many other of my smaller holdings..I cashed a few ekt and other holdings so am quite liquid and also have some shorts open as we won't know we are in a bear market until we are in one!Now I'm not saying we are in a bear market but a few signs are appearing that indicate to me that this "raging " bull market is topping out 1/very high valuations(not in itself enough to cause a crash as stocks often get more expensive once they are expensive 2/tariffs..not sure how markets could ignore this 3/US data cooling off and GDP forecasts much lower than they were 4/earnings comp this April v v tough At 85p spsy are on a forward pe of 7 of my forecasts are right and this is valuing trubrand at zero..so we are bloody cheap However if we do go into a bear market this and many other stocks will imo go to pe of 5 and under That is my major worry and why I now hold a lot less smallers exposure than I did a year agoHope I'm wrong!! But I'm scared..v scared : (

[bones] 23/3/2018 19:45

For sure Lord Gnome, you gotta watch the Chinese as their reputation on IP and general copying of goods is legend. However in both goods and IP, my belief is that they go for the easier to copy stuff.I think SPSY's "materials" are likely at the high-end and mightily protected. I guess time will tell in the long run. There is no such thing as 0% risk.