Sourcebio Share Discussion Threads

[smithless] 20/9/2021 07:38

Sold most of mine after CEO's inability to understand what high single digits means (said in AGM interview, which I thought meant 7500 PCR tests per day, but actually only 3000) Brokers numbers where always perfect scenario stuff, but expect half these numbers for FY. Low PE reflects (2.7x) this. Cash will be around £25-30m. Share price will drop, but much already built in. Just hope CEO does something imaginative with cash, otherwise going nowhere.

[charlieej] 20/9/2021 07:30

Underlying business is worth approx. The current market cap. Add cash Bringen built up through COVID and the business looks undervalued anyway without the COVID testing. I personally think that the market was already pricing in a reduction in COVID testing as SBI price didn't get hit with other CIVID testers when the news was announced last week. Not to say it won't put some investors off.

[pugugly] 20/9/2021 07:22

Looks as though may well take a hit when markets opens - Changes in covid testing requirements detailed in today's rns are (imo) negative to revenue -
What do others think?

[scruff1] 11/9/2021 08:47

Are there any plans to pay a dividend does anyone know

[supernumerary] 06/8/2021 16:15

smithless - thanks

[jacks13] 06/8/2021 15:34

The Odier transaction looks like 546k shares bought.

[smithless] 06/8/2021 15:23

Who knows, Killick & Co perhaps. We are only seeing one side of the cross in the market, unless both sides agreed 156p(unlikely). Either the house broker has taken them and is farming them out and we will see further RNS's or the other side hasn't gone through the market due delayed trade rule because of size. Most likely Richard Griffiths has picked up the rest, as Lombard Odier and he seem to be closely aligned.

[supernumerary] 06/8/2021 13:23

Does that mean someone's now out?

[smithless] 06/8/2021 12:26

1,780,000 shares went through the market at 156p on 4/8/21. Lombard picked up some of these.

[rivaldo] 05/8/2021 23:00

Late RNS today shows Lombard Odier buying more and increasing to over 22%, with 16.43m shares:

[brummy_git] 31/7/2021 17:31

It looks as though Andy Ross at The Motley Fool has the same positive view about medical/lab services firm SourceBio International as I do.

www.fool.co.uk/investing/2021/07/31/top-stocks-and-shares-to-buy-in-august/

[brummy_git] 30/7/2021 15:13

SourceBio was discussed here on today's Vox 'Stock Picking' videocast (starts 54:25).

www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-hill-a5994116_stocks-to-follow-with-justin-waite-and-paul-activity-6826865195483242496-ww3t

[rivaldo] 30/7/2021 11:43

Worth noting (as it's not in the new Private Punter article) that Liberum's new Buy note has a 230p price target for SBI.

[jane deer] 28/7/2021 17:17

PiDazzle. As mentioned above the 1 million was a cumulative number upto March 2021. I agree that the wording in the original RNS was ambiguous. This question was actually asked (question 6) at the InvestorMeetCompany meeting on 13 April 2021.

[james188] 28/7/2021 07:02

I also thought that it was a decent update, but I wonder what is happening on the lateral flow test front. At the time that the final results came out (April), the company told us that it was close to tying up a deal with a leading provider for a much-enhanced LFT offering which would be much more reliable than current tests (which are not very good). We are now three months on… Perhaps we will hear more about that when the interims come out.

[rivaldo] 27/7/2021 15:18

Excellent coverage as ever by the Private Punter (hastings):



Good to see Liberum retaining their forecasts, i.e expecting 60.4p EPS this year, with a year end cash pile of over £51m against the £122m m/cap.

[smithless] 27/7/2021 11:46

pidazzle. Simple, the majority of the PCR testing in the later part of 2020 was DHSC contractual work, as it didn't have the capacity and very few could offer it. DHSC Lighthouse Labs are doing the majority of this work now, with SBI doing some of its mobile work. A very large proportion of PCR testing it is now doing is for private companies. I see its Cellular Pathology biz is recovering quickly. This is a buy and build story for me and if it has £35-50m in cash at the year end to add to that goal, its a good start.

[byh] 27/7/2021 11:40

pld, just a thought: I think the division was only established in May 2020, so it seems they did 750,000 tests in the remaining 7 or 8 months of 2020, equating to ~3,000 /d. That seems to have dropped to ~2,500 /d in Q1 2021 (and rose again in Q2). That, combined, with a drop in the revenue per test might explain the apparent fall in total divisional revenue...

[boonboon] 27/7/2021 11:36

But I'm convinced that testing will be around for longer than previously thought and should still deliver significant cashflow next year.

[boonboon] 27/7/2021 11:32

The average cost of a test has probably gone down.

[pldazzle] 27/7/2021 10:51

smithless and byh - many thanks. That certainly helps (despite SBI's arguably ambiguous choice of words), but raises further issues. Divisional turnover was £2.2m in H1/20 and £34.5m in full year 20 (i.e. £32.3m in H2/20). So the £28.4m in H1/21 is actually a 12% fall compared with H2/20. Can you clarify how this is consistent with the rapidly rising numbers of tests you describe?

[byh] 27/7/2021 10:04

pldazzle: agreed (if the case), but could it be the reference to exceeding 1 M in Q1 refers to the cumulative total, advancing ~250k on the ~750 k at the end of 2020? That would be a rate of ~2,500 /d averaged over Q1, rising to 4,000 /d in June, to 9,000 /d at present - and onwards with capacity for 20,000 /d in the foreseeable... That's a healthy and consistent story.

[smithless] 27/7/2021 10:01

pidazzle. no disrespect, but your numbers are wrong. 758k test 31 dec 2020, 1000k by Q1, thus 242k in Q1. 600k done by 30 june 21, thus 358k Q2, therefore av per day Q1 2,659 Q2 3,934. As company states H2 weighted. So say 1m passengers per day coming and leaving uk each day 10-20k test per day including those from elective surgery does look feasible, if things stay as they are.

[boonboon] 27/7/2021 09:30

htTps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57977282Last line should create extra demand for pcr tests as well.

[pldazzle] 27/7/2021 09:22

Today's RNS is excellent overall: there's just one tiny concern, no bigger than a man's hand, and I would be grateful for comment from those more knowledgeable than me.

To quote:

"The Group has already seen a marked uptick during July with daily testing volumes rising from under 4,000 tests per day in June to approximately 9,000 tests daily at present, well within the Group's existing capacity. Testing demand is expected to rise further and, accordingly, the Group has made preparations to expand its capacity to more than 20,000 tests per day. Should demand exceed these levels, the Group has further arrangements to leverage surplus capacity within a third party owned laboratory."

Butbutbutbutbut ... the annual results RNS on 13 April said "The Group performed over 758,000 tests by the end of 2020 (and exceeded one million tests in the first quarter of 2021)". That's a Q1 rate of over 11K/day. So is today's statement cherry-picking; why have we not been told about the fall to "only" 4K/day in June; and why is the July figure of approx 9K/day not being compared with the Q1 figures, to which we haven't yet got back?

I am very positive about the prospects for SBI, but selective comment (if that's what it is) is surely not a good look.