Sourcebio Share Discussion Threads

[pugugly] 11/5/2021 19:14

So what will happen to revenue as covid testing winds down - It is currently the elephant in the room and a large chunk of the current revenue in this sector must be replaced by say mid 22. Rather hedged so far during webinar - however very difficult (imo) to evaluate as Covid is still wild in the community.

Other sectors look interesting - as however a lab services provider concerned that they are not developing their own AI diagnostic tools and relying on 3rd party technologies (that is if I have understood the presentation correctly) there is therefore no protective moat and the 3rd party tool could apparently be used by other service suppliers.

[pngasef] 07/5/2021 15:06

Jay will be giving another webinar on the 11th of May with AJ Bell.

[rivaldo] 07/5/2021 11:47

Good to see the move up today. There seems to be growing confidence in and moves afoot to finalise a UK-sourced supply chain for growing COVID test manufacturing/production etc, which should benefit SBI - as well as their core businesses returning to normality with the reduction in COVID infections and hospital bed take-up.

[smithless] 29/4/2021 14:19

Total tests in the uk conducted as of 28/4/21 was 150m, 730000 per day, of which the PCR testing capacity is 661,000. Of the £15 billion of funding confirmed before the November Spending Review, around £12.8 billion (85%) is assigned to testing and £1.3 billion to tracing. Much of the additional £7 billion budget allocated in the Spending Review will be needed for mass testing, which was formerly referred to as “Operation Moonshot”. Source gov.uk. Testing not going away soon. Share price weakness due to Killik selling IMHO, which will be taken out if it gets near the placing price

[scruff1] 29/4/2021 08:27

buywell
Really?

[buywell2] 28/4/2021 23:55

The Government is behind a new NHS initiative that increasingly uses real time Hospital data together with AI machine learning , Bayesian mathematical modeling , to be able to predict outcomes , requirements and actions needed to mitigate bad outcomes.


A company called Faculty is working with NHS England and NHS Improvement to build upon the Early Warning System (EWS) that Faculty developed for the service during the pandemic.

Based on Bayesian modeling, Faculty says the EWS uses aggregate data (for example, COVID-19 positive case numbers, 111 calls and mobility data) to warn hospitals about potential spikes in cases so they can divert staff, beds and equipment needed.

This learning will now be applied across the whole of the service, for issues other than the pure pandemic response, such as improving service delivery and patient care and predicting A&E demand and winter pressures.

Faculty has done work before for the NHS and other Government Departments , it would appear that AI based machine learning is in the ascendency as the use of the reasoning and the explanations that it gives to NHS clinicians and managers enables a better understanding of why the models are forecasting the results that they do.


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It would seem a small step to go for Faculty to then use Covid-19 patient data to be able also to predict case numbers rising across the geographical areas from which the patients have been admitted to a particular NHS Trust so as to give prior warning of Covid-19 surges both in terms of numbers and localities .


Such a development would probably impact on Mass Testing and Track and Trace which in surge conditions are of no use whatsoever.


Faculty AI machine learning using NHS live data , could also be used to predict variant types and where they were increasing , which arguably would be more accurate and quicker that present Mass Testing and Track and Trace is.

And at a tiny fraction of the cost

Plus no mountains of testing waste to get rid of

dyor

[brummy_git] 28/4/2021 23:14

Abingdon health said earlier in the week that the rapid lateral flow market ON ITS OWN COULD BE WORTH >$10BN PA IN 2025. Even post mass vaccinations.

[samewe] 28/4/2021 22:32

Covid testings are very likely to be around until 2024. Company’s underlying business had sales of £20 million which were higher than the underlying business of other Covid testing business such as Novacyt pre-covid.
SBI has other profitable business units such as pathology which should benefit when NHS catches up on the delayed back lock cases

[scruff1] 28/4/2021 21:55

Also - and I admit I am really sat on the fence- in all normal situations those figures would have investors pulses racing but and there is a big but its all pretty much dependent on Covid testing and nobody really knows how to quantify what is going to happen. There is obviously going to be some role for testing and probably for longer than first envisaged but to what extent is anybody's guess. If the rest of the world gets on a par with the UK and Israel it could all calm down relatively quickly. Its probably better to value the co ex covid testing which should give a reality check and then think about the testing as a short/medium even long term premium. Only my opinion. Others may differ.

[scruff1] 28/4/2021 21:42

I think you will find hastings posted that on 21st April #290. According to the article those figures were released from its broker Liberium

[samewe] 28/4/2021 20:39

If this is an official tweet from SourceBio stating that PBT this year is forecast to be £55 million which should be quite similar to EBITDA. Take a conservative multiple of 10 times EBITDA, the company should be worth around £7.40 a share. ( 10 x 55 divide by 74 million shares )

[pob69] 28/4/2021 18:06

This is an official company tweet to a PI website (!)



"...@private_punter explains #SBI could prove every bit as cheap as the number suggests"

[pob69] 26/4/2021 09:08

SBI presenting 11th May

[scruff1] 21/4/2021 10:28

Thanks hastings and thanks rivaldo for the direct link (keep bumping into flittons write ups -they are well worth the read)
Its good to get a well balanced assessment of the state of play.
I guess the cash position and the extended testing period was already a known.
I like the bit about the 'testing' (didnt go into detail) at airports - 90% sensitive and results in a few hours (a 'few' needs quantifying but if the period could be reduced right down that would be a major positive imo as it will almost certainly be a part of air travel in the future.
Good to note the other aspects Genomics and diagnostics are being addressed because their weakness was one of the things that stood out as a real possible negative in the reults imo. I think it is fairly clear it is in these fields where the acquisitions will occur and I think news of growth in these areas will be when the chances of growth in its share price will also occur.
Not so convinced about variant testing. Suspect thats a short terme and then minor issue.
Good synopsis though with a lot to encourage those with larger holdings

[rivaldo] 21/4/2021 09:09

Cheers hastings, excellent write-up - here's a direct link. I'll copy this to the EKF thread if you don't mind since it's also relevant there:



So 60.4p EPS is forecast this year - with a £51m cash pile, i.e almost 40% of the current m/cap!

That reduces to 15.4p EPS next year, but with the cash pile rising to £72.8m.

I agree with hastings and the Chariman that COVID testing is here to stay for some considerable time. With this, plus the likelihood of sizeable earnings-enhancing acquisitions, plus bounce back growth from the core business, SBI's value at these levels looks even more stark.

[hastings] 21/4/2021 08:24

Write up for interest, as previously mentioned.https://martinflitton1.wixsite.com/privatepunter/post/sourcebio-international-when-cheap-may-not-prove-expensive-21-04-21

[buywell2] 20/4/2021 23:55

Perhaps hastings can shed some light for you


hastings 15 Apr '21 - 14:42 - 272 of 288
0 1 0
Speaking with them on Monday of next week, so will also provide something for hopefully further flavour.

[scruff1] 20/4/2021 22:30

Bad day on the markets is apparently due to covid fears. Shouldnt that in the case of SBI to have been a least a little alleviated by the fact there should be some benefit re testing expectations? It seems sentiment is very negative against this stock. I cant seem to put my finger on it but there is a lot of mistrust. Even some of its biggest advocates are misunderstanding whats going on eg Rivaldo #262 still some for sale at 199- a bargain. A week later and is 175 a bargain or expensive. If this drop is on the back of decent results where is the destination on bad news? Not good imo

[bamboo2] 19/4/2021 19:01

4/1/2021 remainder of Continuation gap left to fill, 174-175

[go2nc] 19/4/2021 18:53

It's the seller who reduced from 4.2% to now less than 3%. These guys he'd since placing price of 162. Short term pain but then a great opportunity for us to buy.

[go2nc] 19/4/2021 16:01

One contract is for our core lab histopathology business and second one is for COVID. Topped up today for 4900 shares at 195p.

[go2nc] 19/4/2021 16:00

2 NHS framework for contracts released totalling 25 billions. https://twitter.com/chandragosavi/status/1384158779114082315?s=21

[scruff1] 19/4/2021 15:28

And a second question - how come after the cash pile/lack of debt announced in the results and now this apparent piece of a fairly large pie - there is no increase in interest and indeed there is continued selling? Its is imo very odd

[scruff1] 19/4/2021 15:24

Got a questions for you guys that know this company.
1. On Nov 25th SBI issued an RNS saying that the Lot 4 contract was expected to be extended but to be delayed to (now known 19th April)and that the delay is expected to impact testing volumes into Q1 2021 but the board remained confident.
2. April 19 Lot 4 is announced and £14b to be shared amongst the successful bidders over 4 yrs.
Im assuming that the award/extension of the contract materially affects the company so why no RNS?

[rivaldo] 19/4/2021 08:54

Cheers pob69, excellent news - should be a decent additional earner over the next four years from a share of £15 billion.