Sdx Energy Share Discussion Threads

[thegreatgeraldo] 13/4/2018 09:04

HaiderAliFool
13 Apr '18 - 05:19 - 5840 of 5843
0 0 0
Edison note:

They do mention the need to construct a central processing facility for IY - which likely means capex.

..PW has said they'll lease a processing plant.

[darola] 13/4/2018 07:42

I mailed SDX yesterday to inform they need to update the major holders on their website - under AIM rule 26 they are obliged to update the major holders list every 6 months - it was last updated 7th October. They also list insider holdings, and the aggragated position of retail (PIs), so provide a 100% view. If they update this as they should, we'll see if we have a seller.

[haideralifool] 13/4/2018 06:59

HD the figures that people are bandying about if there is production of 100mmscf/d, sold at $2.5, and taking into account WI and tax is around US$20m per year.

The problem is this.

They raised $10m last year to improve the drill economics and without going back to the actual numbers, say that's 20m new shares. Now yesterday was an exceptional day and 1.2m shares traded in total. Say 600k sells.

If they want to unload, whoever bought those 20m will need 40 days like yesterday and that's assuming they are the only seller!!

Now I know that the no-debt mantra ia a big virility symbol for some people - but we're seeing the downside of equity issuing for a thinly traded stock. IMHO.

Of course equity is cheaper for the company and likely less risky too (bearing in mind the source of Circle's problems) - but shareholders can't complain if they take the hit. In the short term at least.

We need the positive newsflow to clear the overhang.

[hiddendepths] 13/4/2018 06:25

So caution is still the watchword here and certainly little is proved at this stage. But surely there is substantial upside if IY and Kelvin are connected and it turns out that there's considerably more than 100 ft of pay?

Anyone brave enough to do a high side valuation?

[haideralifool] 13/4/2018 05:19

Edison note:

"We expect to de-risk Ibn Yunus on flow testing; however, indicatively moving to an 80% chance of success (equivalent to our risking for SD-1X) from 32% would add 4.4p/share to our RENAV in our 90bcf recoverable case."

hxxp://www.baystreet.ca/articles/research_reports/edison/CA78410A1075SDXEnergy120418flash.pdf

So they'll only change their risking when the flow tests are done and obviously there's no change in the risking for Kelvin at this stage.

They do mention the need to construct a central processing facility for IY - which likely means capex.

[neo26] 12/4/2018 21:27

Still will be throwing out alot of cash, from Sd, NW Gemsa, Meseda and Morrocco.Definately will surge this stock, just a little patience.Maybe another aquisition to boast further our production.

[shakeypremis] 12/4/2018 20:59

ah ok mate, that makes sense.

[neo26] 12/4/2018 20:36

ShakeyI was saying out of 100mmcfd they get quarter thats still decent amount of cash for a company which only valued at 100m.

[thegreatgeraldo] 12/4/2018 20:15

They've got an effective 19.25% of Meseda

[shakeypremis] 12/4/2018 19:35

Pretty sure I saw it somewhere recently. Quite where I am not sure. I will try to remember. Regardless, the difference is not great. There was also something from another poster a while ago which detailed something slightly different, it was information gained from some documentation SDX had to file when they listed I think. Again, I will try to dig that up.

[haideralifool] 12/4/2018 19:31

shakey, to calculate netbacks people have been discounting by the wi and the tax rate, which comes to 22%, so what accounts for the difference between this figure and the one you've quoted?

[shakeypremis] 12/4/2018 19:23

You can't compare mcf's with barrels of oil for calculating revenues etc. Only for a comparison of energy content. If SD only produces 25MMscf/d SDX will make sod all. They only have a 19.25% economic interest in the concession.

[neo26] 12/4/2018 18:29

The Company, in its technically approved development plan by the Egyptian authority, forecasts a plateau rate from the SD-1X field of 50 million standard cubic feet per day ("MMscf/d"). of conventional natural gas (SDX 55% working interest) However, with any exploration success, the field plateau rate could potentially increase up to 100 MMscf/d. Start-up of production at South Disouq is expected to commence in H2 2018.

=============

significant amount of cash is coming from SD, even if we only get 25MMscfd, thats over 4000boed.

[neo26] 12/4/2018 18:27

this 4 well drilling project in SD didnt PW say they have option to drill another well?

[shakeypremis] 12/4/2018 18:25

It is pretty big, no wonder PW is excited. Such a good result with the first drill at Ibn bodes very well for future drills.

[neo26] 12/4/2018 17:52

just look how large the Ibn Prospect is..

[thegreatgeraldo] 12/4/2018 16:52

HAF,

Re the IV cartoon, the blue is sand. I took PW's comment to mean 10% or so net:gross

[haideralifool] 12/4/2018 16:46

hd that is a good point and I am sure one that puts off some investors (especially the larger ones).

Even a very small PI like me would have a problem exiting on a low volume day.

[hiddendepths] 12/4/2018 16:42

It'll take the pre-listing early stage investors finishing their selling! Unfortunately the volumes here are generally so thin that it's taken a long time already.

Can't say I'm too bothered. When the fundamentals are good, share prices nearly always reflect this in due course. Just needs patience.

[ifthecapfits] 12/4/2018 16:36

Pretty disappointing day share price wise really. What is it going to take to get this moving in a materiel way.

[haideralifool] 12/4/2018 16:28

That picture of IY:
hxxps://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=16015&mn=872&pt=msg&mid=18189035

So they've gone 100ft into the red blob and there's another 1000ft of it?

[neo26] 12/4/2018 13:33

I think we need to realise good money coming into from SD.100mmcfd will likely happen now.+8000boed by year end.

[captain james t kirk] 12/4/2018 12:55

HAF
Yes, as tgg has often pointed out, PW does tend to put his mouth into gear before the brain engages. It's not a characteristic markets take kindly to :)

[haideralifool] 12/4/2018 12:50

captain it's comments like that which really make me wonder sometimes. How do you run out of space in an RNS?

And this coming from a company that's been rns'ing every little inconsequential well they drill.