Solgold Share Discussion Threads

[pob69] 15/11/2018 11:15

Annual Report 2018 (111 pages so plenty of useful material contained within) now available $SOLG.L SolGold $SOLG #ECUADOR

[noccer] 15/11/2018 10:37

Strange that RedCloud would quote holes 68 and 69 as evidence for increase in the resource estimate when SOLG has clearly stated that only holes 1 to 67 will be included in the next MRE. Maybe they are talking about the resource expansion after the next MRE.

Also strange that they say the amount of copper might double but the high grade core only increase by 50%. This implies the low grade part expanding by a much larger volume, maybe a factor of 3 or 4.

Strange wording too - when they say "as the company further defined controls of the high-grade mineralization at Alpala Central" do you think they meant to say "as the company further defined contours of the high-grade mineralization at Alpala Central".

I think they need to explain a bit more how they reach their conclusions.

Second porphyry at Alpala might be attractive but could be small or deep if not detected in their surveys, and missed until hole 64.

[mirabeau] 14/11/2018 20:25

SolGold Plc.

Technical Success Reveals Potential Alpala 2.0

Impact: Positive

-Ongoing exploration by SolGold continues to support our thesis that Alpala is likely to double with the resource update expected in Q4 2018. The technical success from hole 64 also supports our theory of a potential second porphyry adjacent to Alpala, further reflecting the world-class scale of Cascabel.

Highlights:

-Results support our view for a potential 50% increase of the high-grade core. We previously stated that the high-grade core was set to grow by 50% as the company further defined controls of the high-grade mineralization at Alpala Central. This is supported by hole 68 returning 664 m grading 1.53% CuEq, including 348m grading 2.25% CuEq, which intersected wide intercepts of high-grade mineralization (>1.5% CuEq cut-off) and is open at depth.

-Potential doubling of the overall resource. We continue to believe the resource is set to double with the pending Q4/18 update, which was reflected by hole 69 that was drilled in the Alpala West Limb and returned 852m grading 1.14% CuEq. A total of 82,400m has now been drilled since the last Mineral Resource Estimate in December 2018 and therefore further reflects the amount of successful exploration drilling has been completed for the pending update.

-A second Alpala deposit? Our estimates assume a 100% increase in the Alpala deposit but we have not accounted for the potential of an adjacent porphyry system. Hole 64 was drilled deep into the northwest target and returned 402m grading 0.65% CuEq of primary bornite mineralization, which is indicative of an additional porphyry core. Although a technical success, more drilling in this northwest sector towards Trivino needs to be done to confirm potential scale and grade.

Valuation:

-Technical success of hole supports meaningful upside in scope and scale of an already world class size project. In our view, this warrants premium valuation. We believe that the pending resource update and ongoing exploration success are likely to drive our base case NAVPS8% to C$1.30. SolGold trades at a premium to peers (0.51x NAV vs peers 0.35x) and we believe a further premium is warranted given the scarcity and scale of Cascabel and that willing suitors are ready to pounce. Upcoming catalysts: 1) Ongoing exploration, 2) Resource update (Q4/18) and 3) Maiden PEA (Q1/19).

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[mam fach] 14/11/2018 17:06

Don't expect there's any significance in 1 trade just gone through.

[mam fach] 14/11/2018 16:20

Don't think it's factored in. Probably BHP know so.
They paid 45p. You would think that we be base for price.

[lefrene] 14/11/2018 16:13

So is that already baked into the price? Does NM have to deliver rather more than "double forecast"? Presumably BHP think so.

[mam fach] 14/11/2018 16:07

NM has said going to be double forecast.

[5070481] 14/11/2018 15:31

The mre, 12 months later and thousands of km mine, should be bigger. I would hope so!

[mam fach] 14/11/2018 14:05

Not overly optimistic are they.
Erring on the side of caution.

[mam fach] 14/11/2018 12:22

Shocking. Another buying opportunity.

[lefrene] 14/11/2018 10:44

I wonder what "other sources of funding" they had in mind? Straight forward borrowings or a rights issue? Both of which would have driven down the sp, so NM in my view made the best deal. BHP of course are also canny, their recent buy in says they want a slice of the action but were unwilling to buy in the market since the size of their stake would have driven the price rather higher than the 45p paid.

35.5p beckons to fill that gap, and the waiting for somebody to blink carries on.

[goldrush] 14/11/2018 10:03

pob69

Many thanks for note.

Demonstrates what a great project we are involved in.

Particularly liked the slide which shows SOLG becoming a mid tier copper/gold player.

[pob69] 14/11/2018 09:32

Interesting couple of snippets in latest Hannan & Partners note on $SOLG.L Solgold $SOLG #ECUADOR $CGP

"We therefore believe SolGold remains on track to deliver a significant increase within its second Alpala MRE over the coming weeks. However, the earlier than expected data cut-off may mean a doubling in contained metal, which we postulated in our initiation, may be not be achieved until the outstanding assays are incorporated into a subsequent, third MRE."

"While we believe other sources of funding would have been
available to SolGold, the proceeds from BHP also leave the company well
placed to plan its 2019 drilling campaign..."

"We continue to see significant upside potential to SolGold shares, which
currently trade at a ~52% discount to our Jun’19E PT of 80p/sh, based on 0.9x
our conceptual DCF for Alpala."

[arcadian] 14/11/2018 09:20

The long term value of the assets renders the short term fretting over the share price somewhat pointless as exemplified by the not too distant gradual decline of the share price to c. 20p.

[5070481] 14/11/2018 09:11

SOLG languished below the orignal Newcrest price for months/a year. Long term price action is very different to the short and medium term.

[onedb1] 14/11/2018 08:58

Very weird here lol . 10p sub BHP purchase price . Wondering if those selling are selling at a loss now ...

[onedayrodders] 14/11/2018 08:58

I had to open my big mouth didn't I :0/

[5070481] 14/11/2018 08:56

PIcked som eup on gap close

[trewinney] 14/11/2018 08:55

Sidarthur,No I have sold out.

[5070481] 14/11/2018 08:42

Have a look at the bloodbath in the wider market. THere are a lot of people heavily exposed that have been reducing positions. Sell side pressure. Not many are feeling particulalrly keen right now to be buying so demand has dried up. Miners with their thirst for cash are never deeme3d defensive stocks so get hit. Its not just the bad compnies that people sell when times get tough

[sidarthur2] 14/11/2018 07:52

Do you hold any?

[trewinney] 13/11/2018 18:49

The problem here is the huge number of shares issued,

[zeusfurla] 13/11/2018 18:48

Jason Zweig of Wall St Journal said once - 99% of the time the right thing to do is nothing. I think this is one of those times! Patience required. Plenty of positives, broker reviews and good target prices. BHP interested. I'm holding and expecting big news in next 2-3 months.