Skyepharma Share Discussion Threads

[fhmktg] 08/3/2016 15:43

Pushing down ahead of results?

[best1467] 26/2/2016 22:03

Yes HBM have have also increased holding in last 9 months by 300000 So still see good value at current levels.With the strong cash generation and debt issues long gone ,they be expecting dividend income going forward.

[aceuk] 26/2/2016 09:45

HBMN has been an investor in Skyepharma since 2001 and has taken a private equity-style approach, owning a significant proportion of the company (28.5% at 31 December 2015). It remained close to the business through a difficult period in 2008/09 when Flutiform failed to gain US approval, and was involved in a capital raising in 2014 that saw the company’s debt reduced substantially. Wicki says the HBMN team took the view that the business could be restructured and become profitable – a conviction that has been vindicated by the company’s recent results and a rising share price (up 464% over three years to 15 February, although it has fallen back slightly in market volatility since the start of the year).

Wicki sees Skyepharma as a low-risk, stable investment – with products already successfully on the market, it does not have the binary risk characteristics of earlier-stage companies – and a potential source of cash in the future. He points out that the company has net cash and is generating substantial income from royalties (including from Pacira, spun out of the company in 2007), and has many options (including potential acquisitions of new technology) because it is now solidly financed.


Edison research HBM

[rogerrail] 25/2/2016 18:43

Possibly linked to Pacira fy results anouncment although not sure if they have reported anything significantly different to previous inidcation. They indicated a late third qtr launch into oral surgery applications so perhaps thats the good news?

[mastermatto] 25/2/2016 16:59

Nice surge today. Ready for results to come out in March. Expecting good results?

[ps0u3165] 16/2/2016 09:58

I know this is all over ADVFN so sorry if you have seen it already.

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[kfp] 13/2/2016 11:03

This could be the reason for share price drop. Number. 6http://m.citywire.co.uk/money/5-shares-the-pros-are-buying-and-selling/a878769?re=38521&ea=157663&utm_source=bulkemail_money_weekly&utm_medium=bulkemail_money_weekly&utm_campaign=bulkemail_money_weekly#galleryAnchor

[soundbuy] 10/2/2016 16:38

....and breathe out..........

[rogerrail] 10/2/2016 09:31

I calculated Ellipta royalties for 2015 at around the £6.5m mark based on 1% royalty per chemical entity. This is slightly ahead of Edisons last estimated projection of £6m(made in 2014). Vilanterol present in both Anoro and Relvar hit the £3m cap for a chemical entity.

The £9m overall cap will be hit if sales of Relvar achieve £300m ( 2015 £257) and combined sales of Anoro & Incruse also reach this level ( 2015 £79m + £14m = £93m)

[diesel] 09/2/2016 23:48

Hi, yeh good points Stent.just trying to understand what has spooked investors here, yup the market is in turmoil but pharmas are normally a safe haven.

[stentorian] 09/2/2016 21:59

Evening Diesel,

I've looked at GSK's results again.

The US where Fluti isn't even marketed yet are by far the largest market for the Ellipta products - so there is no cannibalisation there. So I don't think that is an issue. As you say it's a huge market. Following on from that point, GSK sells in many more markets than the ones Fluti is marketed in. The last GSK presentation Relvar/Breo Ellipta is launched in 42 markets, Anoro 33 markets and Incruse 10 markets. Mundupharma/Kyorin/Sanofi have managed 30 markets with Flutiform. Not surprising since GSK turned over £5.7bn of Respiratory products in 2015. Even though it is a crowded section of the market, SKP's patented technologies are proven to work - hence the reason GSK try to lengthen the lifespan of patented products - I expect SKP's are priced a bit more cheaply than GSK's. Fluti sales increase year-on-year so it doesn't justify a 12% haircut. Shocks and scares eh?

[diesel] 09/2/2016 21:13

Stent, I wonder if the "significant momentum" quoted is part of the problem here, I know it's a huge market but will Fluti be affected by a this, I notice Vectura have also been hit lately, there can only be so much room in this section of the market....

[stentorian] 09/2/2016 13:34

Thanks Paul for your reply. CEO of GSK Sir Andrew Witty in the slide presentation states "Significant momentum in the respiratory portfolio" referring to the Ellipta product range so I agree that the royalty cap will probably be achieved in 2016 rather than 2017. I prefer 3% to 2% :-)

Thanks for the heads up on my gremlins!

Regards

S

[polaris] 09/2/2016 13:11

Hi Stentorian,

It is a cap of 3M GBP per chemical entity. Some of those products are single entity and others use two but i think the total number of chemical entities is 3. The low single digit royalty will be somewhere in the 2% range i would assume, maybe as high as 3% if we use the Paxil CR agreement as a reference. Looking at these sales numbers and taking a simple 2% of the total sales figures already gets us to 7M GBP, assuming that no 3M cap is reached. I would expect the 9M GBP cap to be reached on total sales in 2016. Just a shame that SKP were not able to negotiate a flat rate with no cap as i think this would be worth more in the long run.

regards,

Paul

ps your gremlins are due to using the greater than or less than signs in your message as the engine here recognises them as HTML markup and does not post anything after the symbol. I found this to my cost on several occasions losing long posts!

[stentorian] 09/2/2016 12:37

Sorry I'll post that again.
GSK - SKP receives a low single digit royalty capped at £9m per annum for life of patents (earliest expiry Nov 2019).
GSK analysts' forecasts SKP royalty cap achieved in 2017 (per SKP June 2015 presentation).

Product (Full Year to 31/12/15, Last Quarter, Penultimate Quarter
Incruse Ellipta (FY)£14m (Q4)£9m (Q3)£3m
Anoro Ellipta (FY)£79m (Q4)£30m (Q3)£22m
Relvar/Breo Ellipta (FY)£257m (Q4)£99m (Q3)£64m

Anyone know (1) The exact royalty rate; and (2) Is the royalty paid on cumulative sales across all three products or is it based on £3m cap per product?

[stentorian] 09/2/2016 11:15

sorry, Gremlins

Relvar/Breo Ellipta £257m

[stentorian] 09/2/2016 11:12

GSK full year results last week were interesting.
Anoro Ellipta £79m
Relvar/Breo Ellipta

[sikhthetech] 09/2/2016 10:42

I've added a few... the 1st time in a while...

[soundbuy] 08/2/2016 17:00

Agreed......

[polaris] 08/2/2016 16:45

there are wild swings on the markets today. Just another day at the office!

[rogerrail] 08/2/2016 16:36

No need to panic IMO as all the recent indicators ( Exparel, Flutiform, Ellipta ) serve to underline the 2015 results, and they have cash in the bank after the rights issue in 2014.

[soundbuy] 08/2/2016 16:26

Plenty of stocks off 7-8% and more......liquidity works for you, and against you....